Statistical assessment of trends and oscillations in rainfall dynamics: Analysis of long daily Italian series

Since the 18th century systematic measurements of rainfall have been collected in Italy. The daily rainfall series observed in Milan (1835–2001), Genoa (1833–2000), Bologna (1813–2001) and Palermo (1797–1999) are examples of available long rainfall records. These data series can help analyzing the evolution of precipitation. The present paper deals with long term evolution of: (i) annual rainfall amount; (ii) annual number of rainy events; (iii) intensity of rainfall, (iv) inter-annual rainfall partitioning, i.e. the duration of wet and dry periods, and (v) maximum annual values of daily rainfall amount, duration of wet and dry periods. The evolution is studied analyzing the first two order statistics and the 30-year return period quantiles via moving window analysis. Confidence intervals are introduced to check the statistical significance of the estimated statistics and quantiles. The results are compared with those provided by the traditional Mann-Kendall test. The analysis shows how the annual precipitation exhibits a negative trend in the first half of 20th century, with a subsequent positive trend in northern Italy (Genoa, Milan and Bologna). Conversely, the dataset for Palermo (southern Italy) displays only a negative trend. Because the number of precipitation episodes is found to decrease in the investigated period, the average rain rate is significantly increasing especially in northern Italy. This is also associated with shorter duration of rain episodes with an evident effect on rainfall extremes. Dry periods tend to be longer with increasing variability. The Mann-Kendall test and its progressive form have shown to be well suited for monotonic trend, but the confidence interval analysis, introduced here, is more appropriate if oscillations are significant.     

A homomorphic model for identifying abrupt abnormalities of landslide forerunners

A homomorphic model is presented for identifying the abnormalities of landslide forerunners from an observation time series. The model developed here is better than previous statistical models because it considers, in the evolution process of the landslide, material degradation or smoothing of the slip plane, groundwater level or pore water pressure fluctuations, and unexplained or random behavior. The identification of abnormalities is made in terms of the confidence interval [−qS, qS], where q is the confidence and S is the output error of the homomorphic model. The case study of the Saleshan landslide in Gansu, China, is presented to illustrate the capability and merit of the homomorphic model.     

基于移动区间的GPS精密星历内插方法

针对采用多项式对GPS精密星历进行插值随着阶数增加插值,精度出现衰减或不稳定的问题,提出了基于移动区间的GPS精密星历内插方法来解决这一问题。采用不同分析中心提供的精密星历进行插值计算,比较不同数据产品的质量,选用数据质量比较好的精密星历进行插值计算,比较三种多项式插值的插值精度。实验结果表明：IGS所提供的精密星历数据质量比较好;采用基于移动区间的多项式插值方法,插值精度可达到亚厘米级。     

分区封闭考勤算法研究

文章简述了员工工时填报对铁路勘察设计企业的现实意义,介绍了铁路勘察设计行业工时管理现状和存在的主要问题,针对虚空不实填报这一关键问题提出了指纹分区封闭考勤解决方案及相应算法,对项目工时网上填报实施必要控制,并在勘察设计企业的项目工时软件系统中成功应用。     

Direct relationships of discharges to the mean and standard deviation of the intervals between their exceedences

Abstract

This article paves a way for assessing flood risk by the use of two-parameter distributions, for the intervals between threshold exceedences rather than by the traditional exponential distribution. In a case study, the apparent properties of intervals between exceedences of runoff events differ from those anticipated for exponentially distributed series. A procedure is proposed to relate two statistical parameters of the intervals to threshold discharges. It considers partial duration series (PDS) with thresholds equal to all high enough observed discharges. To avoid unnecessary assumptions on the behaviour of those parameters and effects of dependence between parameters for different PDS, a non-parametric trend-free pre-whitened scheme is applied. It leads to power-law relationships between a discharge and the mean and standard deviation of the intervals between its exceedences. Predicted mean inter-exceedence intervals, for the highest observed discharges at the stations, are closer to the observational periods than those predicted by GEV distributions fitted to AMS, and by GP distributions to fitted PDS. In the present case, the latter predictions are longer than the observational periods whereas some of the predicted mean inter-exceedences are shorter than the corresponding observational periods and some others are longer.

Citation Ben-Zvi, A. & Azmon, B. (2010) Direct relationships of discharges to the mean and standard deviation of the intervals between their exceedences. Hydrol. Sci J. 55(4), 565–577.     

雷达资料同化频次对数值模拟效果影响的试验

采用中尺度数值天气预报模式WRF3.2, 研究了不同的同化时间间隔对2011年7月3~4日成都暴雨模拟的影响。结果表明, 同化了雷达资料后, 使初始场的水汽场、水平风场、垂直速度的分布更加接近实况;除温度场外, 同化频次越高对初始场的影响越大, 水平风场的增量值越大, 呈现的中小尺度信息越多, 更加接近“真实”大气;经过多次同化, 中低层风场的改变已经传递到高层, 引起了高层流场的调整;同化雷达反射率资料是有效的, 能够调整大气中的水汽分布。      

完全规格化缔合勒让德函数常用递推算法的适用性

完全规格化缔合勒让德函数递推算法的适用性是衡量算法优劣的重要标志。从第一相对数值精度、第二相对数值精度和计算速度等方面对4种常用的递推算法--标准向前列递推算法、标准向前行递推算法、跨阶次递推算法和Belikov递推算法的适用性进行分析。结果表明,标准向前行递推算法适用范围最小;对于cosθ∈[－1,1],在1 900阶内,标准向前列递推算法、跨阶次递推算法和Belikov递推算法均适用,且第1种算法速度最快;在3 000阶内,跨阶次递推算法和Belikov递推算法适用,且后者更优。     

隐蔽油气藏研究的难点和前沿

隐蔽油气藏已成为中国油气勘探的主要领域之一。随着勘探程度的提高,隐蔽油气藏勘探向复杂条件拓展,深层隐蔽油气藏发育与保存、不整合面结构与隐蔽油气藏分布、调整改造型隐蔽油气藏形成和保存机理成为隐蔽油气藏勘探和成藏机理研究的难点和前沿。深部存在活跃源岩和具有较高孔隙度和渗透率的储层是深层隐蔽油气藏成藏的基础。超压环境生烃作用动力学的研究进展提高了预测深层源岩生烃潜力的能力,已知的深层高孔隙度储层保存机理可成为预测深部储层孔渗条件的基础。不整合面结构特别是古土壤层的厚度及封闭能力、古土壤层之下半风化岩层的厚度及渗透率是研究与不整合面有关的隐蔽油气藏的关键。由于多期构造叠加、多期生烃和多期成藏,叠合盆地很多隐蔽油气藏经历了不同程度的调整改造,形成有成因联系的一系列调整改造型隐蔽油气藏,研究晚期构造与早期构造的叠加方式是预测调整改造型隐蔽油气藏的基础。准噶尔盆地中部,隐蔽油气藏同时具有埋藏深、不整合面结构复杂、多期成藏多期调整改造的特点,是建立复杂隐蔽油气藏成藏与勘探理论的天然实验室。     

Incorporating conceptual and interpretation uncertainty to mineral prospectivity modelling

Prospectivity analyses are used to reduce the exploration search space for locating areas prospective for mineral deposits.The scale of a study and the type of mineral system associated with the deposit control the evidence layers used as proxies that represent critical ore genesis processes.In particular,knowledge-driven approaches(fuzzy logic)use a conceptual mineral systems model from which data proxies represent the critical components.These typically vary based on the scale of study and the type of mineral system being predicted.Prospectivity analyses utilising interpreted data to represent proxies for a mineral system model inherit the subjectivity of the interpretations and the uncertainties of the evidence layers used in the model.In the case study presented,the prospectivity for remobilised nickel sulphide(NiS)in the west Kimberley,Western Australia,is assessed with two novel techniques that objectively grade interpretations and accommodate alternative mineralisation scenarios.Exploration targets are then identified and supplied with a robustness assessment that reflects the variability of prospectivity value for each location when all models are considered.The first technique grades the strength of structural interpretations on an individual line-segment basis.Gradings are obtained from an objective measure of feature evidence,which is the quantification of specific patterns in geophysical data that are considered to reveal underlying structure.Individual structures are weighted in the prospectivity model with grading values correlated to their feature evidence.This technique allows interpreted features to contribute prospectivity proportional to their strength in feature evidence and indicates the level of associated stochastic uncertainty.The second technique aims to embrace the systemic uncertainty of modelling complex mineral systems.In this approach,multiple prospectivity maps are each generated with different combinations of confidence values applied to evidence layers to represent the diversity of processes potentially leading to ore deposition.With a suite of prospectivity maps,the most robust exploration targets are the locations with the highest prospectivity values showing the smallest range amongst the model suite.This new technique offers an approach that reveals to the modeller a range of alternative mineralisation scenarios while employing a sensible mineral systems model,robust modelling of prospectivity and significantly reducing the exploration search space for Ni.     

鄂尔多斯盆地富县地区三叠系延长组长8—长6油层组类眼状构造成因探讨

鄂尔多斯盆地富县地区的三叠系延长组长8—长6油层组的岩石中发育类眼状构造。研究表明,类眼状构造由外部圈层和核心砂质团块组成,根据其形态特征和运动学特征,可分为侧向挤压、鞘褶皱横截面和垂向液化升降3种成因类型。结合古构造及古地理背景,对类眼状构造及相关软沉积变形构造的触发机制进行判别,由于长8—长6沉积时期湖盆处于扩张—收缩转换期,受同期秦岭造山带活动影响,构造运动活跃,地震频发,故认为地震及地震—涌浪作用最有可能形成类眼状构造及相关软沉积变形构造。鉴于类眼状构造存在于与深水块状砂岩相伴生的块状砂岩中,近年来被重新解释为砂质碎屑流的产物,进一步研究两者之间成因及沉积展布关系,对于研究区深水岩性油气藏勘探具有重要意义。