Accuracy assessment of lidar-derived digital elevation models

Despite the relatively high cost of airborne lidar-derived digital elevation models (DEMs), such products are usually presented without a satisfactory associated estimate of accuracy. For the most part, DEM accuracy estimates are typically provided by comparing lidar heights against a finite sample of check point coordinates from an independent source of higher accuracy, supposing a normal distribution of the derived height differences or errors. This paper proposes a new methodology to assess the vertical accuracy of lidar DEMs using confidence intervals constructed from a finite sample of errors computed at check points. A non-parametric approach has been tested where no particular error distribution is assumed, making the proposed methodology especially applicable to non-normal error distributions of the type usually found in DEMs derived from lidar. The performance of the proposed model was experimentally validated using Monte Carlo simulation on 18 vertical error data-sets. Fifteen of these data-sets were computed from original lidar data provided by the International Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing Working Group III/3, using their respective filtered reference data as ground truth. The three remaining data-sets were provided by the Natural Environment Research Council's Airborne Research and Survey Facility lidar system, together with check points acquired using high precision kinematic GPS. The results proved promising, the proposed models reproducing the statistical behaviour of vertical errors of lidar using a favourable number of check points, even in the cases of data-sets with non-normally distributed residuals. This research can therefore be considered as a potentially important step towards improving the quality control of lidar-derived DEMs.     

Testing earthquake prediction methods: «The West Pacific short-term forecast of earthquakes with magnitude MwHRV ≥ 5.8»

Analyzing the tables and probability maps posted by Yan Y. Kagan and David D. Jackson in April 2002–September 2004 at http://scec.ess.ucla.edu/~ykagan/predictions_index.html and the catalog of earthquakes for the same period, the conclusion is drawn that the underlying method could be used for prediction of aftershocks, while it does not outscore random guessing when main shocks are considered.     

A Comparative Study of the Atmospheric Layers below First Lifting Condensation Level for Instantaneous Pre-Monsoon Thunderstorm Ocurence at Agartala(23°30′N,91°15′E) and Ranchi(23°14′N,85°14′E) of India

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Regional moment tensor uncertainty due to mismodeling of the crust

The retrieval of earthquake moment tensor (MT) requires the response of the medium, in which seismic waves travel from the hypocenter to the stations, to be known. In inverting long-period (LP) seismic data (teleseismic and LP regional records), a gross earth model is sufficient; with decreasing periods, a more detailed model is needed. This is the case when waveforms of weak earthquakes at regional distances are to be inverted. Regional moment tensors (RMTs) of mostly Mediterranean earthquakes are determined on a routine basis by the Swiss Seismological Survey (SED) by using averaged models of the earth's crust. By inverting broad-band records of the M_w=4.8 earthquake near Udine, N Italy, on Feb. 14, 2002, we tested the sensitivity of the MT solution with respect to possible errors in the earth model used and in the location of the hypocenter depth. We perturbed the P and S velocities and the thickness in the 1-D earth model in the range from 3% to 30% of the parameter values and constructed estimates of confidence regions of the MT and error bars of the source time function (STF) and scalar moment in three frequency bands. Similarly, these error characteristics were determined assuming a mislocation in the hypocenter depth. We found that, in the band of periods from 25 to 50 s, the mechanism is resolved well (at the confidence level 95% at least) up to an earth model uncertainty of 30%, in the passband 10–25 s up to about 10%, but it is undetermined completely at periods of 5–10 s. An error in hypocenter depth of as much as double the value reported by the location procedure does not destroy the resolution of the mechanism at periods above 10 s. In the RMT catalog of the SED, earthquakes of M_w greater than about 3.5 are processed at periods above 30 s; thus, the solutions for these events are robust with respect to a possible uncertainty in the earth model used. Mechanisms of weaker earthquakes, retrieved from short periods, should be interpreted with caution.     

GPS卫星原子钟频率稳定度表征方法分析

原子钟频率稳定度的表征通常在时域和频域进行,而对于“尺度域”小波方差表征方法的分析研究较少。对该方法进行系统归纳总结的基础上,给出时域尺度域两类不同表征方法的实用计算公式及其置信度计算方法,通过对各种方差特性的比较分析,指出其适用范围。分析表明：时域系列方差计算简单、直接,各具特点,可以满足不同的实际需要;尺度域的小波方差是一种具有独特优越性的新方法,但可以达到时域表征方法的效果,适用于进行原子钟频率稳定度的估计。     

Automated threshold selection methods for extreme wave analysis

The study of the extreme values of a variable such as wave height is very important in flood risk assessment and coastal design. Often values above a sufficiently large threshold can be modelled using the Generalized Pareto Distribution, the parameters of which are estimated using maximum likelihood. There are several popular empirical techniques for choosing a suitable threshold, but these require the subjective interpretation of plots by the user.In this paper we present a pragmatic automated, simple and computationally inexpensive threshold selection method based on the distribution of the difference of parameter estimates when the threshold is changed, and apply it to a published rainfall and a new wave height data set. We assess the effect of the uncertainty associated with our threshold selection technique on return level estimation by using the bootstrap procedure. We illustrate the effectiveness of our methodology by a simulation study and compare it with the approach used in the JOINSEA software. In addition, we present an extension that allows the threshold selected to depend on the value of a covariate such as the cosine of wave direction.     

Very quiet intervals of geomagnetic activity and the solar wind structure

Extended periods of very low geomagnetic activity as described by very quiet intervals (VQI's) occur only at those times when the solar wind velocityV has a generally decreasing trend, i.e., they mainly occur either after the velocity peak of a high speed solar stream has passed the Earth, or at times when the Earth is immersed in a low speed solar plasma provided that the daily mean value ofdV/dt is negative. The VQI's most frequently start whendV/dt<0 anddB _Z/dt>0 (B _Z is the geocentric solar magnetrospheric-GSMZ-component of the IMF) and end most likely whendV/dt>0 anddB _Z/dt<0. The temporal trends of the solar wind (SW) velocity affect the variation of thea _p index only when the level of geomagnetic activity is generally low.It is suggested that a gradual expansion or contraction of the magnetosphere, associated with a slow variation of the SW pressure, plays a role in the modification of the reconnection-driven magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) fluctuations in the magnetosphere.     

航空像片在活断层研究中的应用

航片判读活断层的依据是断层地形学。航片判读活断层的关键是找出变位地形。变位地形是指由构造作用形成,非自然侵蚀作用所能形成的地形。航片判读变位地形的可信度分为三类。垂河向陡坎、背河向陡坎及反坡向陡坎被认为是可信度工的第四纪活动的变位地形。判读走滑断层的变位方向及变位量,需注意地貌面上的线性地物。利用不同变位基准的不同变位量可判读断层活动期次。本文通过中日航片判读活断层的14个实例,对变位地形的识别予以说明     

Confidence Evaluation of Medium-and Long-Term Earthquake Prediction by Use of the Analytical Hierarchy Process

This paper offers an approach to the relative confidence level of medium- and long-term earthquake prediction methods by use of the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). We construct the criterion judgment matrices according to the results of an expert questionnaire known as the Delphi scheme. From the matrices we can obtain a scale for the relative preference or priority weight of each factor. The quantitative weights might be applied to make synthetic prediction of earthquake risk areas in the northern part of the North China seismic region.