江苏省四季变化的分析

在全球气候变暖的背景下,近些年江苏省气温明显升高,使得江苏省四季的起止时间和长度发生了明显的改变.本文通过分析多种季节划分方法,根据江苏省的气温分布特点,定义了适用于江苏省的四季划分方法.通过分析四季的变化,结果显示:(1)江苏省四季分明,且南北有明显的差别,就全省常年平均而言,冬季最长,其次是夏季,秋季和春季长度很相近,秋季略短.(2)过去几十年里,江苏省各地区各季节的长度和起止时间都发生了明显的变化,特别是自21世纪以来,这种变化速度明显加快,最主要的变化特点为:春季发生的时段向前移了近10d;夏季明显变长,开始时间提前,结束时间推后;秋季的发生时段整体向后移;冬季明显缩短,特别是结束时间提前.     

广西2007年气候特点及其影响评价

2007年,广西全区平均气温比常年偏高、平均降水量比常年偏少、平均日照时数比常年偏多。年内出现近十年少见的春季"倒春寒"以及暴雨洪涝、干旱、高温天气、热带气旋、强对流天气等天气气候事件。除干旱较常年偏重、高温天气较常年偏多外,其它灾害属正常到偏轻年份。气候对农业、旅游业的影响属正常稍好年景,对人体健康、交通运输、盐业的影响属偏好年景,对水电的影响属偏差年景。     

Seasonality change and the third millennium BP rainforest crisis in southern Cameroon (Central Africa)

The third millennium BP crisis of the central African rainforest is not sufficiently understood. The low resolution of most pollen profiles and a large plateau of the calibration curve aggravate the exact dating of the event, and its causal climatic parameters are debated. We present a high-resolution pollen profile from the swamp site Nyabessan in the southern Cameroonian rainforest, covering the period 3100-2300 cal yr BP. Between 3100 and 2500 cal yr BP, the climate was favourable for a regional evergreen forest with Caesalpiniaceae and Lophira and a local Raphia swamp forest. Around 2500/2400 cal yr BP, a significant decrease of mature forest and swamp forest taxa and an increase of pioneers indicate that the rain forest was seriously disturbed and replaced by secondary formations. The dominance of Trema orientalis, a pioneer well adapted to seasonal desiccation, points to a much more accentuated seasonality after 2500 cal yr BP, which seems to be linked to a southwards shift of the ITCZ during the northern hemisphere winter months. We propose that the rain forest crisis between 2500 and 2200 cal BP created favourable conditions for farming and paved the way for a major expansion of Bantu speaking populations.     

近40年来甘肃省降水的变化特征

利用1960—2003年甘肃省59个测站逐日降水资料,研究了甘肃省四季和年降水量及雨日的气候变化特征。结果表明,平均年降水量和雨日的空间分布非常相似。河西和白银市的年降水量的趋势系数为正,省内其它地区为负;河西大部和甘南部分地区的年雨日的趋势系数为正,省内其它地区为负。线性倾向估计的结果表明,年降水量线性倾向值的零线基本以黄河为界,河西在增加,河东在减少,减少最明显的区域在徽县和康县盆地;雨日增加主要在河西西部偏南地区、沿祁连山的大部分地区及临夏以及甘南等海拔相对较高的地区,中部和陇东南的雨日在减少。雨日增多的地方降水量也在增加,反之亦然。全省年降水量和年雨日在1990年代均为低谷,而在21世纪初又都有上升趋势。降水量突变在1990年代中期;雨日突变河西在1960年代后期,河东在1970年代后期和1990年代中期。冬季降水量及雨日表现全省性大范围的增加趋势,秋季降水量及雨日亦呈全省性减少趋势;而春、夏季的降水量及雨日变化趋势则是地区性的。     

Progress in the Research on the Impact of Wind Farms on Climate and Environment

Wind power has become one of the fastest growing renewable energy. With the large-scale deployment of wind farms in the world, people have started to pay attention to the impact of wind farms on the ecological environment and climate. This paper summarized the impact of wind farms on climate and ecological environment by investigating relevant literature: In the areas of wind farms, on the one hand, the set-up of wind turbines changes original aerodynamic roughness height and strengthens the dragging of the land surface against turbulence, directly affecting the turbulent motion of the boundary layer, resulting in the changes of intensity and pattern of material energy and water vapor exchange between land surface and near-surface atmosphere, further affecting the atmospheric circulation and climate. On the other hand, wind turbines convert the majority of the wind kinetic energy into electric energy, which produces the wake effect of the wind turbine. The budget patterns and spatial and temporal distribution of large-scale kinetic energy in the boundary layer are changed correspondingly, generating changes in various fluxes (heat flux, water vapor flux, etc.) in the atmosphere, which affect temperature, precipitation, and wind speed. Generally, the warming or cooling effect of wind farms on the near-surface is related to the stability of atmosphere. However, simulations in the global climate model showed that the average impact of wind farms on global climate is small, much smaller than the expected changes in greenhouse gas emissions and the interannual changes in natural climate.Wind power emits almost no carbon dioxide and pollutants. Compared with other traditional energy sources, it reduces water consumption but may generate some negative ecological impacts such as animal habitats, bird collisions, and noise, vision impact. However, some measures can be taken to mitigate these adverse effects.     

Low‐accommodation and backwater effects on sequence stratigraphic surfaces and depositional architecture of fluvio‐deltaic settings (Cretaceous Mesa Rica Sandstone,Dakota Group,USA)

The adequate documentation and interpretation of regional‐scale stratigraphic surfaces is paramount to establish correlations between continental and shallow marine strata. However, this is often challenged by the amalgamated nature of low‐accommodation settings and control of backwater hydraulics on fluvio‐deltaic stratigraphy. Exhumed examples of full‐transect depositional profiles across river‐to‐delta systems are key to improve our understanding about interacting controlling factors and resultant stratigraphy. This study utilizes the ~400 km transect of the Cenomanian Mesa Rica Sandstone (Dakota Group, USA), which allows mapping of down‐dip changes in facies, thickness distribution, fluvial architecture and spatial extent of stratigraphic surfaces. The two sandstone units of the Mesa Rica Sandstone represent contemporaneous fluvio‐deltaic deposition in the Tucumcari sub‐basin (Western Interior Basin) during two regressive phases. Multivalley deposits pass down‐dip into single‐story channel sandstones and eventually into contemporaneous distributary channels and delta‐front strata. Down‐dip changes reflect accommodation decrease towards the paleoshoreline at the Tucumcari basin rim, and subsequent expansion into the basin. Additionally, multi‐storey channel deposits bound by erosional composite scours incise into underlying deltaic deposits. These represent incised‐valley fill deposits, based on their regional occurrence, estimated channel tops below the surrounding topographic surface and coeval downstepping delta‐front geometries. This opposes criteria offered to differentiate incised valleys from flood‐induced backwater scours. As the incised valleys evidence relative sea‐level fall and flood‐induced backwater scours do not, the interpretation of incised valleys impacts sequence stratigraphic interpretations. The erosional composite surface below fluvial strata in the continental realm represents a sequence boundary/regional composite scour (RCS). The RCS’ diachronous nature demonstrates that its down‐dip equivalent disperses into several surfaces in the marine part of the depositional system, which challenges the idea of a single, correlatable surface. Formation of a regional composite scour in the fluvial realm throughout a relative sea‐level cycle highlights that erosion and deposition occur virtually contemporaneously at any point along the depositional profile. This contradicts stratigraphic models that interpret low‐accommodation settings to dominantly promote bypass, especially during forced regressions. Source‐to‐sink analyses should account for this in order to adequately resolve timing and volume of sediment storage in the system throughout a complete relative sea‐level cycle.     

大陆风化与全球气候变化

:“构造隆升驱动气候变化”的假说是当前解释新生代以来全球气候变冷的主流观点。该假说把新生代以来发生的几个主要现象 ,即全球气候总体上趋冷 ,大气 CO2 浓度下降 ,海洋 87Sr/ 86Sr比值上升 ,以及构造作用引起的大面积隆升等加以有机的联系 ,给以了合理的解释。近几年围绕大陆风化和全球气候变化问题取得了一些新的进展 ,主要是对发源于喜马拉雅山的河流进行研究 ,探讨青藏高原隆起对于大陆风化速率的影响。这些争论主要是有关硅酸盐风化还是碳酸盐风化 ,有机碳的风化与埋藏 ,大陆风化与大气温度 ,大气 CO2 浓度与大气温度等问题。最后介绍了我国研究人员在黄土高原的黄土沉积地层所作的研究工作和取得的成果。     

基于新监测指标的江南入梅早晚的气候特征及影响系统分析

利用中国气象局2014年发布的《梅雨监测业务规定》中的入梅日期资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及NOAA海温资料等,重点研究了1951—2015年江南入梅早、晚的气候特征,及其与同期(5—6月)大气环流及前期海表温度变化的关系。结果表明,近65年来江南入梅日具有显著的年际变化特征,入梅平均日期为6月8日,最早和最晚相差47 d。入梅日主要出现在6月,占80.0%。江南入梅偏早和偏晚年,对流层高层至低层的同期大尺度环流存在明显的差异。入梅偏早年,高层南亚高压和东亚副热带西风急流(西风急流)的建立较早,强度较强,南亚高压北移到青藏高原上空亦偏早,西风急流北跳偏早; 中层中高纬度经向环流较强,而西北太平洋副热带高压(副高)第1次北跳偏早; 低层索马里越赤道气流建立较早,强度较强,西太平洋为反气旋式距平环流; 入梅偏晚年上述环流系统演变特征则基本相反。冬、春季海表温度的异常是影响入梅早、晚的重要的外部强迫因子,也是重要的前期预测信号:当冬季东太平洋海表温度为负距平、澳大利亚东部海表温度偶极子为正位相及春季北大西洋三极子处于正位相时,江南入梅偏早; 上一年12月澳大利亚东侧海表温度偶极子和当年3月北大西洋三极子与江南入梅早、晚关系最为密切,当12月澳大利亚东部海表温度偶极子为正位相时,副高第1次北跳偏早,当3月北大西洋三极子为正位相时,6月西风急流偏强、偏北,有利于江南入梅偏早。      

三小时负变压异常指数及对强对流天气的预报意义

低层暖平流强迫类强对流发生前,地面经常伴有低于日变化的3 h变压。结合常规地面观测资料,定义低于日变化的3 h变压异常（超过一个标准差定义为异常）指数PCR（Pressure Change Range）,讨论了中国中东部地区3 h变压标准差的气候分布特征;最后以3次强对流天气过程为例说明PCR指数的预报价值和时效。结果表明,与3 h变压均值相比,中国中东部地区的3 h变压标准差的日变化较小,PCR更适合作为变压异常程度的标准。东北、华北、华东-华中区域PCR冬春季节出现站次数偏多,夏秋季节偏少;华南区域除了冬春季外,夏季也偏多,秋季偏少。PCR主要集中在低级别强度上,但PCR级别越高,越有可能出现强对流天气。东北区域出现PCR的首要原因是受东北气旋的影响,且可能有TBB≤-52℃的云系相对应;华北、华东-华中、华南出现PCR的首要原因是冷高压变性或迅速东移,没有TBB≤-52℃的云系相对应;地面倒槽中出现的PCR全部有TBB≤-52℃的云系对应。3次强对流天气过程均发生在地面倒槽中;在发生前3 h左右,地面气压场上有较明显的负PCR中心出现,强对流天气中尺度云团有向负PCR中心移动的趋势。      

黄、渤海沿海大风变化特征及影响系统

利用1981—2010年黄、渤海沿海44个气象站大风资料,根据中央气象台对近海海区的划分,分析了近30 a黄、渤海近海5海区大风的气候特征,以及通过天气分型对2008—2012年黄、渤海沿海大风的影响系统进行了统计,结果表明:近30 a黄、渤海沿海5海区日最大风速≥6级和≥8级日数呈递减趋势,1980s大风日数较多,各海区≥6级大风在1981年和1987年前后均有两个峰值。≥6级大风日数随季节变化的峰值,渤海海区出现在春季,黄海南部海区是春季、夏季8月和秋季11月,渤海海峡、黄海北部和中部海区则主要是春季和冬季。渤海海区以偏北风和南南西风为主导风向,与其他海区以北或西北风为主的特征明显不同。冷锋是黄、渤海沿海大风最主要的影响系统,其次是气旋型和高低压型大风。另外以850 h Pa温度平流的强度、冷/暖中心的强度、等温线密集带梯度、地面高/低压强度、地面大风前3 h/24 h最强变压中心强度和地面气压梯度等要素为着眼点,对不同类型的大风指标进行了分析。