Flood hazard delineation combining geomorphological and hydrological methods: an example in the Northern Iberian Peninsula

Flood mapping requires the combination and integration of geomorphological and hydrological-hydraulic methods; however, despite this, there is very little scientific literature that compares and validates both methods. Two types of analysis are addressed in the present article. On the one hand, maps of flood plains have been elaborated using geomorphological evidence and historical flood data in the mountainous area of northwestern Spain, covering an area of more then 232 km² of floodplains. On the other hand, a hydrometeorological model has been developed (Clark semidistributed unit hydrograph) in the Sarria River basin (155 km², NW Spain). This basin is not gauged, hence the model was subjected to a goodness-of-fit test of its parameter (curve number) by means of Monte Carlo simulation. The peak flows obtained by means of the hydrological model were used for hydraulic modeling (one-phase, one-dimensional and steady flow) in a 4 km² urban stretch of the river bed. The delineation of surface areas affected by floods since 1918, as well as those analyzed subsequent to the geomorphological study, reveals a high degree of reliability in the delineation of the flooded areas with frequent recurrence intervals (<50 years). If we compare these flooded surface areas with the estimate obtained by the hydrological-hydraulic method we can see that the latter method overestimates the extent of the surface water by 144% for very frequent recurrence intervals (>10 years) and underestimates it as the recurrence interval increases, by up to 80% less floodplain for exceptional events (>500 years). Finally, a management map is put forth combining the most reliable results available by integrating both methods. Originally presented at the Sixth International Conference on Geomorphology.     

Pervasive wetland flooding in the glacial drift prairie of North Dakota (USA)

This article describes a unique flood hazard, produced by the dramatic expansion of wetlands in Nelson County, located within the North American Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota, USA. There has been an unprecedented increase in the number, average size, and permanence of prairie wetlands, and a significant increase in the size of a closed lake (Stump Lake) due to a decade-long wet spell that began in 1993 following a prolonged drying trend. Base-line land cover information from the 1992 USGS National Land Cover Characterization dataset, and a Landsat TM scene acquired 9 July 2001 are used to assess the growth of the closed lake and wetland pond surface areas, and to analyze the type and area of various land cover classes inundated between 1992 and 2001. The open water profile in Nelson County changed from one marked by relatively comparable coverage of closed lake and wetland pond areas in 1992, to one in which wetland open water accounted for the vast majority of total open water in 2001. The bulk of the wetland pond area expansion occurred by displacing existing wetland vegetation and agricultural cropland. Producers responded to the flood hazard by filing Federal Crop Insurance Corporation (FCIC) claims and enrolling cropland in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), a federal land retirement program. Land taken out of agricultural production has had an enormous impact upon the agricultural sector that forms the economic base of the rural economy. In 2001 the land taken out of production due to CRP enrollment and preventive planting claims represented nearly 42% of Nelson County’s 205.2 K ha base agricultural land. The patterns obtained from this detailed study of Nelson County are likely to be the representative of the more publicized flood disaster occurring within the Devils Lake Basin of North Dakota.     

气候变化对塔里木河来自天山的地表径流影响

塔里木河水资源主要来自天山南坡两条源流,选择西段阿克苏河和中段开都河-孔雀河作为研究区.1956-2003年研究河源山区气温呈持续升温且降水波动增加的趋势,其中1995-2003年升温强劲,升温速率高出48 a期间平均的3倍以上;降水自1986年后持续增加,20世纪90年代较80年代增幅达18%,并显示出河源山区湿岛向塔里木盆地扩展.因高山缺少气象观测,出山径流过程变化可以综合反映中高山带的气候变化.塔里木河来自天山的地表径流在1986-2003年间持续增长,以冰川融水补给为主的库玛拉克河,1994年以来年径流量增加已在前期平均值基础上提升了一个台阶;开都河以降水径流补给为主,1986-2002年出现了观测记录以来的丰水期,并使1986年后博斯腾湖水位快速上升,恢复到1958年记录的最高水位以上.两河年径流变化趋势基本相似,但也显示有西、中段的气候变化局部差异,出现丰枯水期的不一致;然而,在近16 a升温过程中,年径流增长幅度和快慢相近.     

长江河口洪水造床作用

据多年实测资料统计 ,长江口年径流总量 92 4 0亿m3,年输沙量 4 .86亿t,洪季的径流量和输沙量分别占全年总量的71.7%和 87.2 %。如遇洪水年 ,当洪峰流量超过 6 0 0 0 0m3 s时 ,中、下游河道水位明显抬高而进入防汛警戒状态 ,河床有明显冲淤变化 ;洪峰流量超过 70 0 0 0m3 s时 ,新生汊道及切滩串沟频频出现 ,给河口治理及深水航道开发带来重要的影响。从长江河口河槽演变基本特征及南港、北槽底沙输移强度引证长江洪水在河口地区的造床作用     

南极冰退与深圳湾北岸海平面变化的地质记录

南极冰层的冰量为２４．５×１０６ｋｍ３，占地球总冰量的９０％以上，南极冰川进退控制着全球海平面变化和气候波动。酉部南极乔治王岛第四纪冰碛与湖积剖面记录了近１２０００ａ来南极曾于距今１１０００ａ，９０００ａ和６１００ａ出现过３次快速的冰消过程，近６０００ａ来是一小幅度冷暖交替的气候波动过程。深圳湾北岸潮间带堆积是在近６０００ａ以来发育的，堆积物的环境记录表明，海平面呈周期性升降变化，波动周期平均为６７０ａ，低海面时期发生于距今５５００—４９００ａ，３９００—３６００ａ，２４００—２２００ａ和１３００—１２００ａ。相邻低海面间则是海面上升时期，每一升降周期的海平面变化幅度为８０ｃｍ左右，近１００ａ的现代增温，海平面处于上升阶段，上升速率为２—３ｍｍ·ａ（－１）。     

Linkages between Alaskan sockeye salmon abundance, growth at sea, and climate, 1955–2002

We tested the hypothesis that increased growth of salmon during early marine life contributed to greater survival and abundance of salmon following the 1976/1977 climate regime shift and that this, in turn, led to density-dependent reductions in growth during late marine stages. Annual measurements of Bristol Bay (Bering Sea) and Chignik (Gulf of Alaska) sockeye salmon scale growth from 1955 to 2002 were used as indices of body growth. During the first and second years at sea, growth of both stocks tended to be higher after the 1976–1977 climate shift, whereas growth during the third year and homeward migration was often below average. Multiple regression models indicated that return per spawner of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon and adult abundance of western and central Alaska sockeye salmon were positively correlated with growth during the first 2 years at sea and negatively correlated with growth during later life stages. After accounting for competition between Bristol Bay sockeye and Asian pink salmon, age-specific adult length of Bristol Bay salmon increased after the 1976–1977 regime shift, then decreased after the 1989 climate shift. Late marine growth and age-specific adult length of Bristol Bay salmon was exceptionally low after 1989, possibly reducing their reproductive potential. These findings support the hypothesis that greater marine growth during the first 2 years at sea contributed to greater salmon survival and abundance, which in turn led to density-dependent growth during later life stages when size-related mortality was likely lower. Our findings provide new evidence supporting the importance of bottom-up control in marine ecosystems and highlight the complex dynamics of species interactions that continually change as salmon grow and mature in the ocean.     

Wave run-up and overtopping on smooth and rough slopes of coastal structures

A series of hydraulic model tests has been carried out in a glass wave flume to investigate the influences of wave height, wave period, wave steepness, surf similarity parameter, roughness, layer thickness and porosity on wave run-up and overtopping of 1:2 sloped impermeable and permeable breakwaters fronted by a 1:10 gentle, smooth beach slope. The analysis of results involves the correlation between the overtopping energy transfer with the relative wall height and the relationship between wave run-up and overtopping rate. Further, measured wave run-up and overtopping rates are compared with the results given in the Shore Protection Manual (1984), Automated Coastal Engineering System (1992)and results of other investigators.     

崇明东滩沉积环境探讨

为探讨崇明东滩的沉积环境，了解崇明东滩的植被、水动力等对沉积的影响，对崇明进行了为期一年的实地观测和采样实验分析研究，研究结果表明：①沉积物中含有细砂、粉砂、黏土，其中粉砂是主要组分。塑造滩地的动力以潮汐作用为主，波浪作用居于次要地位；②沉积物的平均粒径自北线断面向南线断面、自高潮向低潮滩有逐渐变粗、分选变差的趋势，且平均粒径具有明显的季节变化；③潮滩季节性冲淤变化主要是与不同季节水文条件的差异性、潮滩植被季节变化及风暴天气等有关。     

艾比湖地区冰消期以来气候演化的植物学证据

本文根据植物生态学分析方法，通过对艾比湖ＺＫｏｏＢ孔中孢粉组合及植被生态的定量分析，阐述了北疆内陆干旱区冰消期以来的气候演化状况。孢粉组合特征及其植被生态的定量分析研究表明，受大气降水以及大气和土壤中相对湿度波动变化的影响，艾比湖地区的生态环境特征在最近１５０００ａ中至少经历了１０次比较明显的波动变化，并且与全球气候变化过程基本符合，表明中国西部干旱半干旱地区晚更新世以的气候环境演化过程是在全球变