Personal experience with climate change predicts intentions to act

The public's willingness to engage in mitigation actions has not received as much attention as the level of belief in Global Warming (GW), especially on the international stage. Research in Western nations indicates that people systematically misunderstand GW and the actions required for mitigation. Important factors that influence judgments about mitigation actions include personal experiences, beliefs, knowledge, values, and worldviews. We present results of an international survey (25 samples from 24 countries) measuring general intentions to act and willingness to engage in specific actions. Our analysis reveals that endorsement of specific actions is (a) lower than general endorsement of mitigation, (b) accompanied by higher intra-individual variance, and (c) more strongly related to personal experiences with GW. This pattern can be attributed to the compatibility between the proximal construal of specific actions and the nature of the personal experience. Lastly we provide recommendations on how these findings can be used to encourage mitigation action.     

近30年中国地面风速分区及气候特征

通过中国近地面风速区划可以深入了解风速分布规律,有助于研究风速的变化机制。利用1980-2009年中国608个测站的日平均风速资料,经过旋转经验正交函数分解法(REOF)得到10个分区,各分区范围和地形有一定的关系。风速频率曲线变化表明,中国北部地区(第3、4区)风速偏大,中部地区(第2、10区)风速普遍较小;对比分析了区域有效风速日数频率和风能分布。根据谐波方法得到各分区风速的年变化特征,大部分区域呈单峰单谷型或双峰双谷型,高值区主要出现在春季,并分析了形成上述特点的可能天气学成因。风速线性倾向估计结果表明,中国大部分地区风速呈减小趋势,第1、4、5区平均风速递减率在-0.028~-0.023 m·s-1·a-1之间,但是,中部地区(第2区、第6区西部、第10区)年平均风速出现递增。通过Mann-Kendan法和小波分析方法检测表明,第2、3、5区突变点出现在2000年附近,第1、4、6区突变点出现在20世纪90年代初。环流特征量指数和风速同期相关性分析,揭示了北极涡和副热带高压对风速的影响。     

2011年盛夏石家庄一次短时暴雨分析

2011年7月26日石家庄市出现一次暴雨冰雹天气,其特点是500 h Pa及以上高空强冷空气导致高空形势在12 h内发生剧变,短波槽快速南下,致使探空观测和数值预报失灵。本文对其他监测资料进行分析,发现这种剧烈变化的天气有明显特征:卫星云图上河套北部逗点云系尾长而粗壮,有向南发展趋势,云系后部的暗区表明干冷空气侵入,与低层暖湿空气形成对流云,尾部断裂表明冷空气加速南下。单站要素变化显示,石家庄地面假相当位温比正常值高了8℃,出现异常不稳定能量。强对流天气发生在假相当位温密集带内,能量中心假相当位温最高达到90℃以上,100 km内假相当位温温差超过25℃,最大降雨出现在假相当位温密集带内。雷达回波呈西南—东北带状排列,前部最大强度为65 d BZ,强回波前形成阵风锋,正负最大速度均超过20 m/s,飑线自西向东移动,它的移向和发展程度决定降雨和冰雹的路径和强度。石家庄市区风向转变和形成地面辐合线分别较降水起始时间提前21 min和30 min。     

1961~2010年黄河中下游地区24节气气候变化特征分析

24节气是我国古代劳动人民的独特创造。全面掌握"24节气"的气候变化规律,不但有利于指导农事生产,提高气象服务质量和水平,而且在为人类预防和治疗疾病方面也有重要意义。在全球变暖的气候背景下,统计分析了1961~2010年黄河中下游地区24节气的气温、湿度、风速等6个气象要素的变化特征,得到以下结论:黄河中下游地区随节气变换气候变化显著,大暑、小暑节气高温高湿,小寒、大寒节气寒冷干燥,清明节气寒温反复大风将至,霜降节气天气渐凉秋燥加剧等。50年内,春季型节气(平均、最高、最低)气温显著升高,冬季型节气最低气温升高显著。气压随节气变化特征与气温大致相反,夏、秋季节气有升压趋势。相对湿度与降水均呈减少趋势,以秋季型节气减小趋势最明显。春季风速最大,夏、秋季风速最小,所有节气风速均呈减小趋势,冬夏季节气日照时间呈缩短趋势。     

Preservation of layered paleodeposits in high-latitude pedestal craters on Mars

An outstanding question in Mars’ climate history is whether or not pedestal craters represent the armored remnants of ice-rich paleodeposits. We address this question using new high-resolution images; in a survey of several hundred high-latitude pedestal craters, we have identified 12 examples in which visible and/or topographically expressed layers are exposed on the marginal scarp of the pedestal. One example, located on the south polar layered deposits, preserves ice-rich layers that have otherwise been completely removed from the polar cap. These observations provide empirical evidence that the pedestal crater formation mechanism is capable of armoring and preserving ice-rich layered paleodeposits. Although layered exposures have not yet been observed in mid-latitude pedestal craters, high-latitude instances of discontinuous, partially covered layers suggest that layers can be readily concealed, likely through mantling and/or mass wasting processes along the marginal scarp. This interpretation is supported by the observation that high-latitude pedestals with exposed layers along their margins are, on average, taller than mid-latitude examples, and have larger, steeper marginal scarps, which may help to maintain layer exposures. These observations favor the interpretation that mid- to high-latitude pedestal craters represent the armored remnants of ice- and dust-rich paleodeposits, which occurred transiently due to changes in the climate regime. Preservation of fine-scale layering of ice and dust at these latitudes implies that the climate change did not involve regional melting conditions.     

Annual survey of water vapor behavior from the OMEGA mapping spectrometer onboard Mars Express

We present here the annual behavior of atmospheric water vapor on Mars, as observed by the OMEGA spectrometer on board Mars Express during its first martian year. We consider all the different features of the cycle of water vapor: temporal evolution, both at a seasonal and at a diurnal scale; longitudinal distribution; and the vertical profile, through the variations in the saturation height. We put our results into the context of the current knowledge on the water cycle through a systematic comparison with the already published datasets. The seasonal behavior is in very good agreement with past and simultaneous retrievals both qualitatively and quantitatively, within the uncertainties. The average water vapor abundance during the year is ∼10 pr. μm, with an imbalance between northern and southern hemisphere, in favor of the first. The maximum of activity, up to 60 pr. μm, occurs at high northern latitudes during local summer and shows the dominance of the northern polar cap within the driving processes of the water cycle. A corresponding maximum at southern polar latitudes during the local summer is present, but less structured and intense. It reaches ∼25 pr. μm at its peak. Global circulation has some influence in shaping the water cycle, but it is less prominent than the results from previous instruments suggest. No significant correlation between water vapor column density and local hour is detected. We can constrain the amount of water vapor exchanged between the surface and the atmosphere to few pr. μm. This is consistent with recent results by OMEGA and PFS-LW. The action of the regolith layer on the global water cycle seems to be minor, but it cannot be precisely constrained. The distribution of water vapor on the planet, after removing the topography, shows the already known two-maxima system, over Tharsis and Arabia Terra. However, the Arabia Terra increase is quite fragmented compared with previous observations. A deep zone of minimum separates the two regions. The saturation height of water vapor is mainly governed by the variations of insolation during the year. It is confined within 5-15 km from the surface at aphelion, while in the perihelion season it stretches up to 55 km of altitude.     

边界层参数化方案在“灰色区域”尺度下的适用性评估

随着数值预报模式分辨率的提高,当模式网格距与含能湍涡的长度尺度相当时,模式动力过程可解析一部分湍流运动,而剩余的湍流运动仍需参数化,此时便产生了湍流参数化的“灰色区域”问题。对传统的PBL（Planetary Boundary Layer）方案在“灰色区域”下的适用性评估,是改进PBL方案以使其能够适应分辨率变化的前提和基础。本研究基于干对流边界层的大涡模拟试验,比较了WRF（Weather Research and Forecast Model）模式中四种常用的边界层参数化方案[YSU（Yonsei University）、MYJ（Mellor-Yamada-Janjic）、MYNN2.5（Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino Level 2.5）、MYNN3）]在“灰色区域”尺度下的表现。研究表明,混合层内总热通量对所使用的参数化方案和水平分辨率均不敏感。不同参数化方案中次网格与网格通量的比例表现出对水平网格距不同的依赖性。局地PBL方案（MYJ、MYNN2.5）在混合层内的平均位温随网格距减小而增大,次网格通量随网格距减小而减小,较参考湍流场对次网格通量有所低估。YSU方案的非局地项几乎不随水平格距改变而变化,对次网格通量的表征并未表现出较强的分辨率依赖性,且过强的非局地次网格输送使混合层内温度层结呈弱稳定,抑制了可分辨湍流输送,不易于激发次级环流。MYNN3方案的非局地次网格通量（负梯度输送项）随网格距减小而减小,使其对次网格通量的表征具有较好的分辨率依赖性。PBL方案在“灰色区域”尺度下的适用性与具体分辨率有关。以分辨率500 m为例,四种PBL方案中不存在一种最佳方案,能对边界层的热力结构和湍流统计特征均有准确的描述。     

红河断裂带闭锁程度和滑动亏损分布特征研究

利用1999~2013年青藏高原东南缘的GPS速度场观测数据,采用DEFNODE程序反演红河断裂带走滑速率、三维闭锁程度和滑动亏损分布。反演结果表明:红河断裂带北、中、南段右旋走滑速率分别约为(5.9±1.2)mm/a,(4.8±0.6)mm/a和(4.3±0.4)mm/a,在地表以下6km的闭锁程度分别为0.43,0.22和0.25,其滑动亏损速率分别为3.3mm/a,2.6mm/a和2.3mm/a,红河断裂带闭锁程度和应变积累程度都比较低,与近年来红河断裂带整体活动微弱的现状相吻合。     

Evaporation effects on the formation of martian gullies

In order to investigate the formation of martian gullies and the stability of fluids on Mars, we examined about 120 gully images. Twelve HiRISE images contained a sufficient number of Transverse Aeolian Ridges (TARs) associated with the gullies to make the following measurements: overall gully length, length of the alcove, channel and apron, and we also measured the frequency of nearby TARs. Six of the 12 images examined showed a statistically significant negative correlation between overall gully length (alcove, channel and apron length) and TAR frequency. Previous experimental work from our group has shown that at temperatures below ∼200 K, evaporation rate increases by about an order of magnitude as wind speed increases from 0 to ∼15 m/s. Thus the negative correlations we observe between gully length and dune frequency can be explained by formation at temperatures below ∼200 K where wind speed/evaporation is a factor governing gully length. In these cases evaporation of the fluid carving the gully was a constraint on their dimensions. Cases where there is no correlation between gully length and TAR frequency, can be explained by formation at temperatures >200 K. The temperatures are consistent with Global Circulation Model and Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) data for these latitudes. The temperatures suggested by these trends are consistent with the fluid responsible for gully formation being a strong brine, such as Fe₂(SO₄)₃ which has a eutectic temperature of ∼200 K. We also find that formation timescales for gullies are 10⁵-10⁶ years.     

THEMIS-VIS observations of clouds in the martian mesosphere: Altitudes, wind speeds, and decameter-scale morphology

We present measurements of the altitude and eastward velocity component of mesospheric clouds in 35 imaging sequences acquired by the Mars Odyssey (ODY) spacecraft’s Thermal Emission Imaging System visible imaging subsystem (THEMIS-VIS). We measure altitude by using the parallax drift of high-altitude features, and the velocity by exploiting the time delay in the THEMIS-VIS imaging sequence.We observe two distinct classes of mesospheric clouds: equatorial mesospheric clouds observed between 0° and 180° L_s; and northern mid-latitude clouds observed only in twilight in the 200–300° L_s period. The equatorial mesospheric clouds are quite rare in the THEMIS-VIS data set. We have detected them in only five imaging sequences, out of a total of 2048 multi-band equatorial imaging sequences. All five fall between 20° south and 0° latitude, and between 260° and 295° east longitude. The mid-latitude mesospheric clouds are apparently much more common; for these we find 30 examples out of 210 northern winter mid-latitude twilight imaging sequences. The observed mid-latitude clouds are found, with only one exception, in the Acidalia region, but this is quite likely an artifact of the pattern of THEMIS-VIS image targeting. Comparing our THEMIS-VIS images with daily global maps generated from Mars Orbiter Camera Wide Angle (MOC-WA) images, we find some evidence that some mid-latitude mesospheric cloud features correspond to cloud features commonly observed by MOC-WA. Comparing the velocity of our mesospheric clouds with a GCM, we find good agreement for the northern mid-latitude class, but also find that the GCM fails to match the strong easterly winds measured for the equatorial clouds.Applying a simple radiative transfer model to some of the equatorial mesospheric clouds, we find good model fits in two different imaging sequences. By using the observed radiance contrast between cloud and cloud-free regions at multiple visible-band wavelengths, these fits simultaneously constrain the optical depths and particles sizes of the clouds. The particle sizes are constrained primarily by the relative contrasts at the available wavelengths, and are found to be quite different in the two imaging sequences: r_eff = 0.1 μm and r_eff = 1.5 μm. The optical depths (constrained by the absolute contrasts) are substantial: 0.22 and 0.5, respectively. These optical depths imply a mass density that greatly exceeds the saturated mass density of water vapor at mesospheric temperatures, and so the aerosol particles are probably composed mainly of CO₂ ice. Our simple radiative transfer model is not applicable to twilight, when the mid-latitude mesospheric clouds were observed, and so we leave the properties of these clouds as a question for further work.