青藏高原影响亚洲夏季气候研究的最新进展

文中回顾了近 10a来吴国雄等在青藏高原影响亚洲夏季气候研究方面的最新进展。通过分析东西风交界面的演变证明 ,由于青藏高原的春季加热 ,亚洲季风区对流层低层冬季盛行偏东风转变为夏季偏西南风最早发生在孟加拉湾东部 ,与其相伴随的激烈对流降水出现在其东面。因此孟加拉湾东部至中印半岛西部是亚洲季风最早爆发的地区。同时也指出盛夏伊朗高原和青藏高原加热所激发的同相环流嵌套在欧亚大陆尺度的热力环流中 ,从而加强了东亚的夏季风 ,加剧了中西亚的干旱 ;并通过其所激发的波动对夏季东亚的气候格局产生重要影响。文中还比较了夏季南亚高压的伊朗模态和青藏模态性质的异同及其对亚洲夏季降水异常分布的不同影响。     

The impact of hydrological changes on travertine deposits related to thermal springs in the Pamukkale area (SW Turkey)

Pamukkale thermal waters (35 °C), exhibiting calcium-bicarbonate-sulfate composition and high carbon dioxide concentration, are of a predominantly meteoric origin. The meteoric fluid, circulating through faults and fractures, is heated by magmatic intrusions at great depth, and ascends from deep reservoirs to the surface. Mixing with relatively cold groundwater in the near surface zone promotes different saturation conditions with respect to calcium carbonate that later precipitates at depth and/or the surface. Dissolution-deposition processes of calcium carbonate both at surface and depth environments may help to reconstruct past climate direction in the field. During wet climate conditions a high-rate of calcium carbonate accumulation would be expected to occur at the surface because thermal fluid would be under-saturated with respect to calcium carbonate at depth because of a relatively higher mixing ratio with cold groundwater. During dry climate conditions the thermal fluid would be super-saturated at depth because of the highly acidic environment. Hydrometeorological studies reveal that the annual precipitation at the Pamukkale hydrothermal field tends to decrease with time. This climatic change in the area was also detected from geological records. While humid climate conditions prevailed during the late Quaternary, the area has recently been affected by arid/semi-arid climate conditions, followed by some episodic transitions. This study has shown how the system has possibly reacted to different climate conditions since antiquity.     

Younger Dryas glaciolacustrine rhythmites and cirque glacier variations at Kråkenes, western Norway: depositional processes and climate

Kråkenes faces the open sea on the west coast of Norway. During the Younger Dryas a cirque glacier deposited a large outer and a smaller inner moraine in a cirque at the site and melt-water entered a small lake depositing glaciolacustrine sediments. The glaciolacustrine succession can be divided into three sub-units corresponding to the advance, the still-stand and the retreat phases of the glacier. The sediment succession contains both varves and other types of rhythmites, the latter being mainly deposited as turbidity underflows caused by localized slumping events. Lee-side accumulation of snow by wind and avalanching into the cirque was crucial to form and maintain the cirque glacier once summer temperatures were low enough. At maximum, the glacier likely was in equilibrium with climate. The initial retreat from the maximum position might have been triggered by fall-out of volcanic ash from Iceland, but the continued retreat was due to increased ablation season temperatures. The most rapid change in climate at the Younger Dryas/Preboreal transition occurred after the cirque glacier had melted away completely.     

Discrimination between climate and human-induced dryland degradation

In this study we present a technique to discriminate between climate or human-induced dryland degradation, based on evaluations of AVHRR NDVI data and rainfall data. Since dryland areas typically have high inter-annual rainfall variations and rainfall has a dominant role in determining vegetation growth, minor biomass trends imposed by human influences are difficult to verify. By performing many linear regression calculations between different periods of accumulated precipitation and the annual NDVI_max, we identify the rainfall period that is best related to the NDVI_max and by this the proportion of biomass triggered by rainfall. Positive or negative deviations in biomass from this relationship, expressed in the residuals, are interpreted as human-induced. We discuss several approaches that use either a temporally fixed NDVI peaking time or an absolute one, a best mean rainfall period for the entire drylands or the best rainfall period for each individual pixel. Advantages and disadvantages of either approach or one of its combinations for discriminating between climate and human-induced degradation are discussed. Depending on the particular land-use either method has advantages. To locate areas with a high likelihood of human-induced degradation we therefore recommend combining results from each approach.     

开封大雾气候特征及预报

利用1961～2000年气象资料，分析了开封市大雾天气分布规律、天气特征，并总结出大雾产生的几种天气形势，找出预报指标。     

Climatic response of thick leaf spruce (Picea crassifolia) tree-ring width at different elevations over Qilian Mountains, northwestern China

Tree-ring cores of thick leaf spruce (Picea crassifolia) taken from four sites at different elevations, in the middle of the Qilian Mountains, in the arid and semi-arid region of northwestern China, were used to develop four tree-ring width chronologies using standard dendrochronological methods. Results indicate that with increasing altitude the chronologies’ year-to-year variations decreased. Hence, the sensitivity of the tree-ring chronologies to climate decreases with altitude. Further analysis showed that the significant limiting factor on tree growth is spring precipitation. Measurements of stomata density and leaf dry weight suggest the species’ ecological adaptation strategy changes with elevation. At high elevation the metabolic rate of thick leaf spruce decreases, thus showing the effect of the climate.     

Representing and communicating deep uncertainty in climate-change assessments

IPCC reports provide a synthesis of the state of the science in order to inform the international policy process. This task is made difficult by the presence of deep uncertainty in the climate problem that results from long time scales and complexity. This paper focuses on how deep uncertainty can be effectively communicated. We argue that existing schemes do an inadequate job of communicating deep uncertainty and propose a simple approach that distinguishes between various levels of subjective understanding in a systematic manner. We illustrate our approach with two examples. To cite this article: M. Kandlikar et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

Uncertainty in adaptive capacity

The capacity to adapt is a critical element of the process of adaptation: it is the vector of resources that represent the asset base from which adaptation actions can be made. Adaptive capacity can in theory be identified and measured at various scales, from the individual to the nation. The assessment of uncertainty within such measures comes from the contested knowledge domain and theories surrounding the nature of the determinants of adaptive capacity and the human action of adaptation. While generic adaptive capacity at the national level, for example, is often postulated as being dependent on health, governance and political rights, and literacy, and economic well-being, the determinants of these variables at national levels are not widely understood. We outline the nature of this uncertainty for the major elements of adaptive capacity and illustrate these issues with the example of a social vulnerability index for countries in Africa. To cite this article: W.N. Adger, K. Vincent, C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

Ice-core pollen record of climatic changes in the central Andes during the last 400 yr

This paper presents a high-resolution ice-core pollen record from the Sajama Ice Cap, Bolivia, that spans the last 400 yr. The pollen record corroborates the oxygen isotopic and ice accumulation records from the Quelccaya Ice Cap and supports the scenario that the Little Ice Age (LIA) consisted of two distinct phases—a wet period from AD 1500 to 1700, and a dry period from AD 1700 to 1880. During the dry period xerophytic shrubs expanded to replace puna grasses on the Altiplano, as suggested by a dramatic drop in the Poaceae/Asteraceae (P/A) pollen ratio. The environment around Sajama was probably similar to the desert-like shrublands of the Southern Bolivian Highlands and western Andean slopes today. The striking similarity between the Sajama and Quelccaya proxy records suggests that climatic changes during the Little Ice Age occurred synchronously across the Altiplano.