Enhancing a GIS Cellular Automata Model of Land Use Change: Bayesian Networks, Influence Diagrams and Causality

Cellular Automata (CA) models at present do not adequately take into account the relationship and interactions between variables. However, land use change is influenced by multiple variables and their relationships. The objective of this study is to develop a novel CA model within a geographic information system (GIS) that consists of Bayesian Network (BN) and Influence Diagram (ID) sub‐models. Further, the proposed model is intended to simplify the definition of parameter values, transition rules and model structure. Multiple GIS layers provide inputs and the CA defines the transition rules by running the two sub‐models. In the BN sub‐model, land use drivers are encoded with conditional probabilities extracted from historical data to represent inter‐dependencies between the drivers. Using the ID sub‐model, the decision of changing from one land use state to another is made based on utility theory. The model was applied to simulate future land use changes in the Greater Vancouver Regional District (GVRD), Canada from 2001 to 2031. The results indicate that the model is able to detect spatio‐temporal drivers and generate various scenarios of land use change making it a useful tool for exploring complex planning scenarios.     

渭北一次区域性暴雨多普勒速度图分析

利用侯马市1960年～2003年太阳总辐射资料,对其变化趋势和突变特点进行了分析。结果表明,候马市年和四季的太阳总辐射都呈现下降趋势;年太阳总辐射的减少主要是由夏季和冬季太阳总辐射的减少引起的;通过采用M—K方法对年和四季总辐射序列的检测得知,各个序列都存在突变。     

太原地区冬季极端最低气温分析

20世纪80年代以来，太原地区冬季（12月-2月）极端最低气温的区域分布为南高北低，冬季极端最低气温随时间的推移而逐步上升，平均最低值均出现在1月，各月平均极端最低气温时间分布为1月最低，2月最高。     

Linking land cover dynamics with driving forces in mountain landscape of the Northwestern Iberian Peninsula

The mountainous areas of the northwestern Iberian Peninsula have undergone intense land abandonment. In this work, we wanted to determine if the abandonment of the rural areas was the main driver of landscape dynamics in Gerês–Xurés Transboundary Biosphere Reserve (NW Iberian Peninsula), or if other factors, such as wildfires and the land management were also directly affecting these spatio-temporal dynamics. For this purpose, we used earth observation data acquired from Landsat TM and ETM + satellite sensors, complemented by ancillary data and prior field knowledge, to evaluate the land use/land cover changes in our study region over a 10-year period (2000–2010). The images were radiometrically calibrated using a digital elevation model to avoid cast- and self-shadows and different illumination effects caused by the intense topographic variations in the study area. We applied a maximum likelihood classifier, as well as other five approaches that provided insights into the comparison of thematic maps. To describe the land cover changes we addressed the analysis from a multilevel approach in three areas with different regimes of environmental protection. The possible impact of wildfires was assessed from statistical and spatially explicit fire data. Our findings suggest that land abandonment and forestry activities are the main factors causing the changes in landscape patterns. Specifically, we found a strong decrease of the ‘meadows and crops’ and ‘sparse vegetation areas’ in favor of woodlands and scrublands. In addition, the huge impact of wildfires on the Portuguese side have generated new ‘rocky areas’, while on the Spanish side its impact does not seem to have been a decisive factor on the landscape dynamics in recent years. We conclude rural exodus of the last century, differences in land management and fire suppression policies between the two countries and the different protection schemes could partly explain the different patterns of changes recorded in these covers.     

气温对巴楚县乔木物候的影响

利用新疆巴楚气象站1987—2013年物候资料和气象资料,运用线性回归、t检验、相关分析等方法,分析了巴楚县气温和乔木物候期的变化特征,以及气温对植物物候期的影响。结果表明：近27a巴楚县乔木春季展叶始期表现出明显提前趋势,秋季叶变色始期表现出推迟趋势,生长季明显延长;3月份气温对展叶始期的影响最显著,巴楚县3月份气温每上升1℃,乔木展叶始期提前2.6d。     

城市土地利用空间变化趋势研究--以广州市海珠区为例

对研究区内不同年份的土地利用图进行叠置等空间信息处理运算,获得3个时段土地利用的空间变化图,将一个网格图层分别与3个时段的土地利用变化图叠加,分析各空间单元的年均变化强度指数,得到土地利用的空间变化结果.然后对年均变化强度指数进行分级统计后得到二级用地类型的土地利用空间变化情况,并结合社会经济因素加以分析,得到研究区3个不同时段的土地利用空间变化趋势.最后对主要二级用地类型的时空结构演变情况进行概括性的分析和评价.     

青藏高原沙区地温研究

青藏高原沙区测温结果表明:沙丘下和厚沙层覆盖地段下的地温较邻近天然无沙地表有所升高,而薄沙层覆盖地段下的地温反而比天然无沙地表有降低的趋势。     

Changes in the Dead Sea Level and their Impacts on the Surrounding Groundwater Bodies

In this paper the reaction of the salt‐/freshwater interface due to the changes in the Dead Sea level are elaborated at in details by using the inflows into the Dead Sea, the outflows due to evaporation losses and artificial discharges, and the hydrographic registrations of the Dead Sea level. The analyses show that the interface seaward migration resulted in a groundwater discharge of around 423 Mio m³ per meter drop in the level of the Dead Sea in the period 1994–1998 and of around 525 Mio m³/m in the period 1930–1937. The additional amount of groundwater joining the Dead Sea due to the interface seaward migration was 51 Mio m³ per one square kilometer of shrinkage in the area of the Dead Sea in the period 1930–1937 and 91 Mio m³/km² in the period 1994–1998. The riparian states of the Dead Sea are nowadays loosing 370 Mio m³/a of freshwater to the Dead Sea through the interface readjustment mechanisms as a result of their over exploitation of waters which formerly fed the Dead Sea.     

浅谈银川台洞温变化对重力观测资料的影响

通过对银川台重力观测资料进行差分变化对比,与理论固体潮及室温变化进行对比分析,阐述了2007年台站重力观测山洞改造期间引起重力变化的主要因素。研究结果表明,山洞改造对重力观测的直接影响不显著,引起资料内在精度下降的主要原因是改造时保温措施不当,引起洞温迅速变化,继而影响重力观测。     

A quadratic element method for evaluating groundwater flow by the inversion of surface tilt with application to the Tono Area, Japan

By modifying a previous method with constant elements, we developed a quadratic element method for more accurately estimating groundwater flow by the inversion of tilt data. In this method: (1) a region of groundwater flow is divided into quadratic elements in which the change in groundwater volume per unit volume of rock (Δv) and the Skempton coefficient (B) vary in a quadratic manner with the coordinates, (2) the values of Δv are set to zero at the boundaries of the region of groundwater flow and (3) the sum of the squared second derivatives of Δv is adopted as a constraining condition that is weighted and added to the sum of the squared errors in tilt. First, analyses were performed for a flow model to determine the accuracy of this method for estimating groundwater flow and also to clarify the effect of the assumed size of a region of groundwater flow. These analyses showed that the quadratic element method proposed in this study gives a much better estimation of Δv than the constant element method and that a large region of groundwater flow should be assumed, rather than a small region, since the values of Δv at points outside of the actual region of groundwater flow are estimated to be nearly zero when a large region is assumed while these values are greatly overestimated when an excessively small region is assumed. Finally, the quadratic element method was applied to the site of the Mizunami Underground Research Laboratory in the Tono area, Japan. Inverse analyses were performed for tilt data measured by four tiltmeters with a resolution of 10⁻⁹ radians during the excavation of two shafts under the assumption that the rock mass is an isotropic and homogeneous half- space. The results showed that the method proposed in this study reproduced the tilt data very accurately. Thus, the distribution of Δv was estimated without sacrificing the reproducibility of the tilt data. The contour maps of B(1 + ν)Δv (ν: Poisson’s ratio) showed that the heterogeneous flow of groundwater occurred at the site and that groundwater volume decreased mainly in the area surrounded by two faults. The latter result is consistent with the finding obtained by previous investigations that these faults have low permeability in the direction perpendicular to the strike and may act as a flow barrier.