上海市浦东新区城市街道“两抢一盗”犯罪的时空规律

以上海市浦东新区"两抢一盗"犯罪为研究对象,采用空间分析和统计分析的方法,分析其时空分布规律,并剖析街道环境与犯罪分布之间的关系。研究发现:1)犯罪时间分布与人们生活、工作的作息周期相关,街道空间使用频率高的时段犯罪相对高发;犯罪的昼夜分布差别与地区岗位、商业场所等环境的空间分布有关;2)在案发部位分布上,各部位的案件构成受到人流活动强度、自然监视的力度及逃逸便捷程度的影响;3)在宏观地理分布上,盗窃案件在浦东新区内以陆家嘴中央商务区一带为核心呈自西向东圈层递减分布,而"两抢"案件的高发区呈带状和点状分布的格局,较为分散在市区与镇区的各居民集中区附近;4)回归分析表明,交叉口是影响盗窃和"两抢"案件分布的重要环境要素之一,交叉口数量及密度均分别对"两抢"和盗窃量有正向影响。最后以研究结论为依据,提出相应的犯罪防控措施。     

近百年广州中心城区(天河)地表年平均气温变化趋势

根据实际资料,首先通过对建筑物查证,新、旧地图对比,实地访问群众,确定了1908-1944年粤海关气象观测场的确切地理位置为23°06'N,113°05'E。通过对气温对比分析、差值订正、回归分析、置信度检验,得出1908-1944年粤海关的地表年平均气温比天河高0.392℃;据1960-1997年同步资料比较得出,作为研究气温的气候变化趋势,1998年以后的天河站地表年平均气温可用番禺站作参考。对订正后具有连续性、代表性、均一性的资料序列进行趋势分析得出,广州中心城区天河1914-2013年的地表年平均气温上升率为1.75℃/100 a,高于同一时段全球地表年平均气温上升率(0.72℃/100 a),原因与20世纪80年代末出现热岛现象及快速城市化有关。     

Typology of detrital zircon as a key to unravelling provenance in rift siliciclastic sequences (Permo-Carboniferous of Spiti,N India)

Abstract

Detrital zircon populations from Carboniferous to Permian sandstones from the Lozar Section of Spiti, northern India, were analyzed with the typology method in order to obtain complementary information on the source areas of the sediments. Zircon grains were subdivided into several groups and subgroups, according to degree of abrasion and morphological features.

First appearance of detrital zircons with distinct typologic signature within successive stratigraphic intervals provided useful data about the tectono-magmatic evolution of the northern Indian margin during Late Paleozoic rifting of Gondwana and initial opening of Neotethys. The base of the studied sequence (Lower Carboniferous Thabo Fm.) is characterized by a largely cratonic provenance, seemingly from the Indian Shield to the South. In the Upper Carboniferous Chichong Fm., first occurrence of typical zircons from anatectic granites and increasing abundance of granitoid detritus suggest rapid uplift and unroofing of anatectic rocks of probable Cambro-Ordovician age. In the lowermost Permian (Asselian) glaciomarine Ganmachidam Diamictite, euhedral detrital zircons with peculiar features, associated with Cr-rich chromian spinels and mafic to felsic volcanic rock fragments, hint at emplacement of bimodal alkaline magmatic suites. The same sources, possibly including subvolcanic bodies, continued to be eroded until final break-up, documented by the Permian Kuling Group.     

农村居民点用地集约利用评价——以北京市门头沟区为例

探讨了农村居民点用地集约利用内涵,从投入强度、使用强度、经济效益以及布局效应4个方面选取18个单项指标构建农村居民点用地集约利用评价指标体系。在农村居民点用地集约利用评价存在区域差异性的前提下,采用层次分析法、自然间断点分级法和多因素综合法分析评价北京市门头沟区农村居民点用地的集约利用水平。区位因素以及规划战略定位是影响农村居民点用地投入强度的最重要因素,投入强度大的乡镇中企业用地、基础服务设施用地比例偏高;邻近镇中心区的农村居民点用地使用强度大,使用强度最大的乡镇为研究区土地利用战略规划的次中心;通过发展第三产业所带来的收入差距更明显。在布局效应方面农村居民点用地多样性指标差异最显著,近市区农村居民点用地没有与城市发展融为一体。在综合集约利用方面,门头沟区137个农村居民点中非集约、低度集约、中度集约和高度集约的农村居民点的比例分别为18.25%,27.01%,28.47%,26.28%,集约利用评价平均分值分别为45.09,51.70,58.07,65.03。区位和经济因素是影响农村居民点用地集约利用程度的关键因素,在空间分布上,邻近新城和各镇中心区的农村居民点在投入强度、使用强度和经济效益方面均表现出较高的集约性,而布局效应不具有类似分布规律。城乡一体化并非城乡一样化,农村居民点用地实现集约利用具有多种途径。     

基于景观格局的广州市边缘区生态压力研究——以番禺区为例

基于RS、GIS技术和统计分析方法,选取破碎化指数、斑块结合度指数、分形维数3个景观指数和土地利用脆弱性指数构建生态压力指数,以番禺为例从景观尺度研究城市边缘区在城市化梯度上的生态压力空间分异。结果表明:不同用地类型的景观指数在3个梯度区内依人为干扰的强烈程度出现明显的空间分异,生态压力呈现自北向南依次降低的空间分布格局。景观生态压力强弱的分布与区域内土地利用方式和强度具有较高的相关关系,人为干扰是影响景观生态压力扩散的重要原因。     

Identifying the Hydrochemical Characteristics, Genetic Mechanisms and Potential Human Health Risks of Fluoride and Nitrate Enriched Groundwater in the Tongzhou District, Beijing, North China

Fluoride and nitrate enriched groundwater are potential threats to the safety of the groundwater supply that may cause significant effects on human health and public safety, especially in aggregated population areas and economic hubs. This study focuses on the high F? and NO3? concentration groundwater in Tongzhou District, Beijing, North China. A total of 36 groundwater samples were collected to analyze the hydrochemical characteristics, elucidate genetic mechanisms and evaluate the potential human health risks. The results of the analysis indicate: Firstly, most of the groundwater samples are characterized by Mg-HCO3 and Na-HCO3 with the pH ranging from 7.19 to 8.28 and TDS with a large variation across the range 471–2337 mg/L. The NO3? concentration in 38.89% groundwater samples and the F? concentration in 66.67% groundwater samples exceed the permissible limited value. Secondly, F? in groundwater originates predominantly from water-rock interactions and the fluorite dissolution, which is also regulated by cation exchange, competitive adsorption of HCO3? and an alkaline environment. Thirdly, the effect of sewage disposal and agricultural activities have a significant effect on high NO3– concentration, while the high F? concentration is less influenced by anthropogenic activity. The alkaline environment favors nitrification, thus being conducive to the production of NO3?. Finally, the health risk assessment is evaluated for different population groups. The results indicate that high NO3? and F? concentration in groundwater would have the largest threat to children’s health. The findings of this study could contribute to the provision of a scientific basis for groundwater supply policy formulation relating to public health in Tongzhou District.     

ASSESSING THE SEISMIC RISK OF CITIES AT FINE-SCALE: A CASE STUDY OF HAIDIAN DISTRICT IN BEIJING,CHINA

In order to provide practical and useful information for the disaster prevention and relief actions, it is necessary to take into account spatial differences and temporal changes of seismic risk in evaluating seismic risk at a proper temporal and spatial scale. From the perspectives of identifying spatial difference of seismic risk within the city and performing disaster relief operations, the evaluation of urban seismic risk is done in this paper at the spatial scale of 500m*500m grids for day time and night time separately. For this purpose, this paper proposes the methods for the assessment of seismic risk, establishing the correspondence relations between the population and land use, and between the floor area of buildings destroyed and casualties at more reasonable spatial and temporal scales. Taking a case study of Haidian District in Beijing using these methods, we estimate the floor area and the value of buildings destroyed and the casualties at daytime and nighttime separately at the 500m grid scale. Results show that:a total of 185, 000m² of areas is expected to be destroyed annually in Haidian District, and the total loss of the houses is 325 million Yuan(excluding properties within the houses). During the day(night)time, 3, 159(2, 037)victims are expected to be killed and 12, 071(7, 790) injured. Destruction of buildings and loss of houses is spatially concentrated in the downtowns in the south and the industrial parks in the east. The casualties inflicted during the day and night descend from southeast to northwest, i.e. from urban core areas, urban fringes, urban outskirts, to village. Several regions suffer heavy casualties during the day, but nighttime casualties are scattered across different regions. The conclusions in this paper efficiently identify the spatial distribution of areas at the level of high and the very high seismic risk, which provides reliable decision support for identifying priority areas for pre-disaster prevention and mitigation, emergency rescue and the distribution of various relief supplies.     

利用扣除系数法估算灌区沟渠和农路面积

研究扣除系数法估算灌区沟渠和农路面积,进而计算耕地面积。以宁夏灌区中宁县第二次土地调查成果为基础进行。主要结论是:沟渠路面积误差可控在15%以内,耕地面积误差可控在2%以内;平均综合工效提高6.5倍。     

Timing of the late glacial and Younger Dryas cold reversal in southern Chile varved sediments

The timing of the last deglaciation in southern Chile is re-evaluated from a calendar varve chronology (Lago Puyehue, 40° S). The climate shifts are analysed by continuous annual varve-thickness measurements through the ∼17,100 cal. year to 10,800 cal. year BP time window (∼3.5 m sediment core). The varve years are determined by the alternation of light (phytoplankton-rich) and dark (terrigenous and organic-rich) layers forming graded annual couplets (∼0.2 to 0.8 mm/year). The varve chronology is constructed by conventional varve-counting methods on thin sections after correction for instantaneous volcanic and/or seismic events detected in the thin sections. The calibrated varve-age model derived from the manual varve counting is constrained by high-resolution grey-scale (GS) semi-automatic counts of the annual light phytoplankton-rich layers (∼120 μm to 300 μm thick). Due to physical sediment properties the GS constitutes a proxy record for the phytoplankton/terrigenous varve-thickness variations through the sediment record. The varve couplets are thicker/thinner during humid/dry phases and darker/lighter (negative/positive annual grey-scale index) during cold/warm phases. Our results show that at 40° S the last deglaciation took place in two phases between ∼17,100 cal. year and ∼15,500 cal. year BP. We note a climate instability between ∼15,500 cal. year and 13,300 cal. year BP and a significant dry phase between ∼15,000 and 14,500 cal. year BP. We evidence a cold event in two phases between ∼13,300 and 12,200 cal. year BP interrupted by a dry event between ∼12,800 and 12,600 cal. year BP. The onset of a significant warmer period is observed after ∼11,500 cal. year BP. Our results provide new evidence of a Younger Dryas cool reversal in southern Chile, i.e., the Huelmo/Mascardi event Hajdas et al. (2003) associated with an abrupt dry pulse at ∼12,800–12,600 cal. year BP. The high-resolution grey-scale measurements performed on the biogenic varves from Lago Puyehue provide a reliable calibrated chronology of the regional environmental and climate shifts during the last deglaciation. This is eighth in a series of eight papers published in this special issue dedicated to the 17,900 year multi-proxy lacustrine record of Lago Puyehue, Chilean Lake District. The papers in this issue were collected by M. De Batist, N. Fagel, M.-F. Loutre and E. Chapron.