Multi-Model Projection of July–August Climate Extreme Changes over China under CO_2 Doubling. Part II: Temperature

This is the second part of the authors’ analysis on the output of 24 coupled climate models from the Twentieth-Century Climate in Coupled Models (20C3M) experiment and 1% per year CO 2 increase experiment (to doubling) (1pctto2x) of phase 3 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP3). The study focuses on the potential changes of July–August temperature extremes over China. The pattern correlation coefficients of the simulated temperature with the observations are 0.6–0.9, which are higher than the results for precipitation. However, most models have cold bias compared to observation, with a larger cold bias over western China (>5°C) than over eastern China (<2°C). The multi-model ensemble (MME) exhibits a significant increase of temperature under the 1pctto2x scenario. The amplitude of the MME warming shows a northwest–southeast decreasing gradient. The warming spread among the models (～1°C– 2°C) is less than MME warming (～2°C–4°C), indicating a relatively robust temperature change under CO 2 doubling. Further analysis of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled climate model version 2.1 (GFDL-CM2.1) simulations suggests that the warming pattern may be related to heat transport by summer monsoons. The contrast of cloud effects also has contributions. The different vertical structures of warming over northwestern China and southeastern China may be attributed to the different natures of vertical circulations. The deep, moist convection over southeastern China is an effective mechanism for "transporting" the warming upward, leading to more upper-level warming. In northwestern China, the warming is more surface-orientated, possibly due to the shallow, dry convection.     

晚白垩世三冬期大气CO2及全球陆表均温变化：植物化石证据

根据海相和陆相记录定量重建白垩纪大气CO2含量对于深入了解这一时期的＂温室气候条件＂尤为重要,但目前多个阶段的古植物数据还非常有限.基于气孔指数技术,本文根据黑龙江嘉荫永安村组3个层位的铁线蕨型银杏化石表皮,重建了晚白垩世三冬期大气CO2含量.回归法分析的结果显示,三冬期CO2含量存在明显的下降过程,即从早期约661ppm（1ppm=1μLL.1）降低到晚期约565ppm.上述结果与GEOCARBⅡ基本吻合,表明三冬期CO2含量远高于现代.相对高的CO2水平为这一时期气候的温暖性提供了新的证据.此外,植物数据显示,白垩纪CO2含量总体上呈现出下降的趋势,但在不同时期存在不同幅度的波动,并以赛诺曼晚期、土伦期、三冬早期、坎潘晚期和/或马斯特里赫特晚期最为明显.对古植物数据的综合分析表明,晚白垩世全球陆表均温亦存在多次波动.全球陆表均温的增量（ΔT）在赛诺曼早期约为3℃,土伦中期增至4.7℃,而随后又在柯尼亚克中期迅速降低至2.2℃.自三冬期以后,全球陆表均温逐渐降低,并伴有一些小幅波动.     

新04号泉溶解气CO2异常特征分析

运用Mapsis软件前兆异常分析中的差分和从属函数,对新04号泉溶解气CO2进行异常识别,结果认为:①差分和从属函数异常形态均为高值异常;②差分异常对近场中强震和远场强震的映震率均为71.4％(5/7);从属函数异常对近场中强震的映震率为66.7％,而对远场强震的映震率为83.3％(5/6);两者均出现异常时,对近场中...     

西北半干旱雨养农业区薯麦轮作FACE平台简介

在黄土高原半干旱雨养农业区薯麦轮作田地建立气象部门首家FACE系统(Free Air CO<,2>En-richment),即CO<,2>浓度的控制和监测系统平台,由中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所建在定西半干旱生态环境与试验基地.该平台由CO<,2>气体供应装置、控制系统、释放系统3大部分组成,它是利用计算机网络系统对平...     

中国实施铁路电气化的节能减排量估算

基于中国铁路部门逐年统计数据,计算了1975-2007年中国电气化铁路带来的逐年节能量和CO2、烟尘、SO2、CO、NOx与CnHm的直接减排量,并分析了其变化特点.结果表明,33年来电气化铁路使得中国铁路运输行业年均节省123.0万t标准煤的能源消耗,节能量年均增长13.9万t标准煤;CO2、烟尘、SO2、CO、NO...     

Changes in Seasonality in China under Enhanced Atmospheric CO2 Concentration

Seasonality changes in China under elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations were simulated using nine global climate models,assuming a 1% per year increase in atmospheric CO 2.Simulations of 20th century experiments of season changes in China from the periods 1961 80 to 1981 2000 were also assessed using the same models.The results show that the ensemble mean simulation of the nine models performs better than that of an individual model simulation.Compared the mean climatology of the last 20 years in the CO 2-quadrupling experiments with that in the CO 2-doubling ones,the ensemble mean results show that the hottest/coldest continuous-90-day (local summer/winter) mean temperature increased by 3.4/4.5°C,2.7/2.9°C,and 2.9/4.1°C in Northeast (NE),Southwest (SW),and Southeast (SE) China,respectively,indicating a weakening seasonal amplitude (SA),but by 4.4/4.0°C in Northwest (NW) China,indicating an enlarging SA.The local summer lengthened by 37/30/66/54 days in NW,NE,SW,and SE China,respectively.In some models,the winter disappeared during the CO 2-quadrupling period,judging by the threshold based on the CO 2-doubling period.The average of the other model simulations show that the local winter shortened by 42/36/61/44 days respectively,in the previously mentioned regions.     

Amplitude Variation with Offset Responses Modeling Study of Walkaway Vertical Seismic Profile Data at CO2 Geological Storage Site, Ketzin, Germany

An important component of any CO2 sequestration project is seismic monitoring for tracking changes in subsurface physical properties, such as velocity and density. Different reservoirs have different amplitude variation with offset (AVO) responses, which can define underground conditions. In the present paper we investigate walkaway vertical seismic profile (VSP) AVO response to CO2 injection at the Ketzin site, the first European onshore CO2 sequestration pilot study dealing with research on geological storage of CO2. First, we performed rock physics analysis to evaluate the effect of injected CO2 on seismic velocity using the Biot-Gassmann equation. On the basis of this model, the seismic response for different CO2 injection saturation was studied using ray tracing modeling. We then created synthetic walkaway VSP data, which we then processed. In contrast, synthetic seismic traces were created from borehole data. Finally, we found that the amplitude of CO2 injected sand layer with different gas saturations were increased with the offset when compared with the original brine target layer. This is the typical class III AVO anomaly for gas sand layer. The AVO responses matched the synthetic seismic traces very well. Therefore, walkaway VSP AVO response can monitor CO2 distribution in the Ketzin area.     

CO_2-H_2O流体不混溶对Au溶解度的影响——以贵州省贞丰县水银洞金矿床为例

运用热力学原理和方法,研究了CO2-H2O流体不混溶作用对Au的溶解度的影响。结果表明,贵州水银洞金矿床的成矿流体是一种富含挥发分（fCO2=70.79MPa）、酸性（pH=3.71）、还原性（fO2=0.50×10-36MPa）、中温（267℃）、具有超压（180MPa）性质的含Au（a∑Au=3.744×10-8mol/L）流体。当超压流体的封闭层——炭质页岩因断裂作用而被破坏时,热液体系的压力发生骤降（28.50～35.30MPa）,CO2-H2O流体发生不混溶作用,并有大量CO2溢出。CO2的流失可使成矿溶液的CO2逸度和O2逸度降低（fCO2=0.80MPa、fO2=2.512×10-42MPa）,酸碱度升高（pH=4.32）,同时伴随温度的下降（224℃）,成矿热液中Au溶解度的降低（a∑Au=3.790×10-9mol/L）,从而快速沉淀下来成矿。     

中国超基性岩封存CO2的潜力研究

大气CO<,2>浓度上升引起的气候效应正受到国际社会的高度关注.超基性岩石与CO<,2>反应可生成稳定的碳酸盐矿物而永久性地固定CO<,2>,有效地降低人类活动排放到大气中CO<,2>浓度,从而缓解日趋严重的温室效应带来的全球气候恶化.根据各省<区域地质志>记载的超基性岩体的岩石学、地球化学资料,按照公式:T=1/3·...     

全球碳循环研究中的δ13C方法及其进展

随着分析技术的进步,δ13C观测在全球碳循环研究中越来越受到重视。在讨论关于碳循环中δ13C的Suess效应、分布特征和同位素分馏等基本概念的基础上,结合现有的观测事实,介绍应用δ13C辨别碳的源汇问题的方法,通过比较不同KeelingPlot方法分析该方法在研究大气CO2背景特征中的意义。着重讨论δ13C在研究大气C...