Mainstreaming adaptation to climate change in Least Developed Countries (LDCs)

Abstract

The Least Developed Countries (LDCs) are a group of 49 of the world's poorest countries. They have contributed least to the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) but they are most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. This is due to their location in some of the most vulnerable regions of the world and their low capacities to adapt to these changes. Adaptation to climate change has become an important policy priority in the international negotiations on climate change in recent years. However, it has yet to become a major policy issue within developing countries, especially the LDCs. This article focuses on two LDCs, namely Bangladesh and Mali, where progress has been made regarding identifying potential adaptation options. For example, Bangladesh already has effective disaster response systems, and strategies to deal with reduced freshwater availability, and Mali has a well-developed programme for providing agro-hydro-meteorological assistance to communities in times of drought. However, much remains to be done in terms of mainstreaming adaptation to climate change within the national policymaking processes of these countries. Policymakers need targeting and, to facilitate this, scientific research must be translated into appropriate language and timescales.     

Preliminary evidence of a link between surface soil properties and the arsenic content of shallow groundwater in Bangladesh

The extremely heterogeneous distribution of As in Bangladesh groundwater has hampered efforts to identify with certainty the mechanisms that lead to extensive mobilization of this metalloid in reducing aquifers. We show here on the basis of a high-resolution transect of soil and aquifer properties collected in Araihazar, Bangladesh, that revealing tractable associations between As concentrations in shallow (< 20 m) groundwater with other geological, hydrological, and geochemical features requires a lateral sampling resolution of 10–100 m. Variations in the electromagnetic conductivity of surface soils (5–40 mS/m) within a 500 m × 200 m area are documented with 560 EM31 measurements. The results are compared with a detailed section of groundwater As concentrations (5–150 μg/L) and other aquifer properties obtained with a simple sampling device, “the needle-sampler”, that builds on the local drilling technology. By invoking complementary observations obtained in the same area and in other regions of Bangladesh, we postulate that local groundwater recharge throughout permeable sandy soils plays a major role in regulating the As content of shallow aquifers by diluting the flux of As released from reducing sediments.     

Unveiling hidden migration and mobility patterns in climate stressed regions: A longitudinal study of six million anonymous mobile phone users in Bangladesh

Climate change is likely to drive migration from environmentally stressed areas. However quantifying short and long-term movements across large areas is challenging due to difficulties in the collection of highly spatially and temporally resolved human mobility data. In this study we use two datasets of individual mobility trajectories from six million de-identified mobile phone users in Bangladesh over three months and two years respectively. Using data collected during Cyclone Mahasen, which struck Bangladesh in May 2013, we show first how analyses based on mobile network data can describe important short-term features (hours–weeks) of human mobility during and after extreme weather events, which are extremely hard to quantify using standard survey based research. We then demonstrate how mobile data for the first time allow us to study the relationship between fundamental parameters of migration patterns on a national scale. We concurrently quantify incidence, direction, duration and seasonality of migration episodes in Bangladesh. While we show that changes in the incidence of migration episodes are highly correlated with changes in the duration of migration episodes, the correlation between in- and out-migration between areas is unexpectedly weak. The methodological framework described here provides an important addition to current methods in studies of human migration and climate change.     

Evaluation of aquifer environment under Hazaribagh leather processing zone of Dhaka city

Hazaribagh is a densely populated area of Dhaka city where about 185 leather processing industries have been operating and discharging solid and liquid wastes directly to the low-lying areas, river and natural canals without proper treatment. The area is covered by alluvial deposits of Holocene age and is underlain by Pleistocene Madhupur clay. The Dupi Tila Formation of Mio-Pliocene age underlain by this yellowish gray to brick red clay bed serves as the main water-bearing aquifer of Dhaka city. To assess the environmental degradation as well as the groundwater environment, major anions, cations and heavy metals of water samples, heavy metals and organic carbon content of sediment samples were analyzed in this study. Analyses of tannery effluent detect high concentration of Na⁺, Mg²⁺, Cl⁻ and SO ₄ ²⁻ followed by Ca²⁺, NH ₄ ⁺ and K⁺ with remarkable contents of some trace elements, mainly Cr, Fe, Mn, S, Ni and Pb. Higher accumulations of Cr, Al and Fe are observed in topsoil samples with significant amounts of Mn, Zn, Ni and Cu. Concentrations of ions and all the investigated trace elements of sampled groundwater were within the maximum allowable limit for drinking water of the Department of Environment, Bangladesh (DoE), and World Health Organization (WHO). However, excessive concentrations of Cr, Pb, etc., have already been reported in the shallow groundwater (10–20 m) of the area. Due to excessive withdrawal the vulnerability of groundwater contamination in deeper parts cannot be avoided for the future.     

Palaeoproterozoic U–Pb SHRIMP zircon age from basement rocks in Bangladesh: A possible remnant of the Columbia supercontinent

We present new U–Pb SHRIMP zircon geochronological data for basement rocks in Bangladesh, and discuss the relationship with the formation of the Columbia supercontinent. Euhedral zircons from a diorite sample yield a concordia age of 1730 ± 11 Ma, which is interpreted as the crystallization age. The Palaeoproterozoic age of the examined basement rock and the common occurrences of similar 1.7-Ga geologic units in the Central Indian Tectonic Zone and Meghalaya-Shillong Plateau in Indian Shield suggest their apparent continuation. This, together with the occurrence of similar 1.7-Ga geologic units in the Albany-Fraser belt in Australia and East Antarctica, are used to suggest that the basement rocks in Bangladesh formed towards the final stages of the assembly of the Columbia supercontinent.     

Petrophysical properties assessment using wireline logs data at well#3 of Srikail gas field,Bangladesh

This study focused on the quantitative analysis of the petrophysical parameters in characterizing the reservoir properties of the Srikail gas field using multi-scale wireline logs. Petrophysical parameters (shale volume, porosity, water saturation and hydrocarbon saturation) were estimated from the combination of gamma ray log, resistivity log, density log and neutron log for three hydrocarbon (gas)-bearing zones at well#3. At the first time, log records at 0.1 m and 0.2 m intervals were read for this study. Result showed the average shale volume is 21.07%, 53.67% and 51.71% for zone-1, zone-2 and zone-3, respectively. For these zones, the estimated average porosity was 35.89%, 29.83% and 28.76%, respectively. The average water saturation of 31.54%, 16.83% and 23.39% and average hydrocarbon saturation of 68.46%, 83.17% and 76.61% were calculated for zone-1, zone-2 and zone-3, respectively. Thus zone-2 is regarded the most productive zone of well#3. It was found that the values of some parameters (porosity, hydrocarbon saturation and permeability) are higher than the existing results. Therefore, this study confirmed that the log reading at minute/close interval provides better quantitive values of the reservoir’s petrophysical properties. It is expected that this result will contribute to the national gas field development program in future.©2022 China Geology Editorial Office.     

Hazard warnings and responses to evacuation orders: the case of Bangladesh's cyclone Sidr

On 15 November 2007 Cyclone Sidr, a category 4 storm, struck the southwestern coast of Bangladesh. Despite early cyclone warnings and evacuation orders for coastal residents, thousands of individuals stayed in their homes. This study examines dissemination of the warning, assesses the warning responses, and explores the reasons why many residents did not evacuate. Field data collected from 257 Sidr survivors in four severely affected coastal districts revealed that more than three-fourths of all respondents were aware of the cyclone warnings and evacuation orders. Despite the sincere efforts of the Bangladesh government, however, lapses in cyclone warnings and evacuation procedures occurred. Field data also revealed several reasons why evacuation orders were not followed. The reasons fell into three broad groups: those involving shelter characteristics; the attributes of the warning message itself; and the respondents' characteristics. Based on our findings, we recommend improved cyclone warnings and utilization of public shelters for similar events in the future.     

Is correlation dimension a reliable proxy for the number of dominant influencing variables for modeling risk of arsenic contamination in groundwater?

The correlation dimension (CD) of a time series provides information on the number of dominant variables present in the evolution of the underlying system dynamics. In this study, we explore, using logistic regression (LR), possible physical connections between the CD and the mathematical modeling of risk of arsenic contamination in groundwater. Our database comprises a large-scale arsenic survey conducted in Bangladesh. Following the recommendation by Hossain and Sivakumar (Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 20(1–2):66–76, 2006), who reported CD values ranging from 8 to 11 for this database, 11 variables are considered herein as indicators of the aquifer’s geochemical regime with potential influence on the arsenic concentration in groundwater. A total of 2,048 possible combinations of influencing variables are considered as candidate LR risk models to delineate the impact of the number of variables on the prediction accuracy of the model. We find that the uncertainty associated with prediction of wells as safe and unsafe by LR risk model declines systematically as the total number of influencing variables increases from 7 to 11. The sensitivity of the mean predictive performance also increases noticeably for this range. The consistent reduction in predictive uncertainty coupled with the increased sensitivity of the mean predictive behavior within the universal sample space exemplify the ability of CD to function as a proxy for the number of dominant influencing variables. Such a rapid proxy, based on non-linear dynamic concepts, appears to have considerable merit for application in current management strategies on arsenic contamination in developing countries, where both time and resources are very limited.     

Mitochondrial DNA variation reveals distinct lineages in Penaeus semisulcatus (Decapoda,Penaeidae) from the Indo‐West Pacific Ocean

Penaeus semisulcatus, the green tiger prawn, is an ecologically and economically important penaeid shrimp in the Indo‐West Pacific region, especially in rice‐shrimp farming and capture fisheries in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, respectively. Genetic variation and phylogeography of samples of this species from Bangladesh and Sri Lanka were studied utilizing different mitochondrial DNA markers, i.e. cytochrome oxidase subunit 1 (CO1), control region (CR) and 16S rRNA genes. No evidence of population structure was observed in Bangladesh, but distinct variations were found among the Sri Lankan samples (Φ_ST = 0.04, p = .002; F_ST = 0.07, p = .001), with the western sample differing from the northwestern and southern samples. The Bangladesh population had lower genetic diversity than two of the three Sri Lanka populations. The phylogeography of P. semisulcatus revealed two distinct mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) lineages, one in the Western Pacific Ocean and second in the Indian Ocean. The Bangladesh samples showed highest levels of similarity with samples from Sri Lanka, India and Malaysia, with the Bangladesh and Sri Lanka populations sharing the most common recent ancestry. Among the Indian Ocean samples, high levels of variation were observed in the samples from Iran, indicating admixture of two distinct mtDNA lineages, one shared by the populations from the Bay of Bengal and the other possibly originating from Eastern Africa. The genetic and phylogeographic information obtained in this study will be useful in appropriate planning for management and conservation of shrimp fisheries in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, and in the Indo‐West Pacific region.