江苏省连阴雨过程时空分布特征分析

通过综合各地连阴雨指标因子, 确定了江苏省连阴雨过程的标准, 根据指标体系, 对其时空分布特征进行了分析, 得出江苏省年均连阴雨次数为12.3次, 连阴雨的空间分布存在着明显的北少南多的特征, 可见沿江苏南地区为连阴雨的频发地区。其中从对农作物危害程度来看, 主要是春季连阴雨(3—5月)和秋季连阴雨(9—11月)影响较大, 这两个时段连阴雨过程发生次数较多, 分别为年均3.1和2.7次, 其中春季3月和秋季9月的连阴雨出现次数最多。为了进一步定量评估连阴雨的强度, 我们设计了连阴雨强度指数模型, 对强度指数M_LYY进行了分级, 实施了对连阴雨强度的进一步把握, 更好地为决策部门提供了服务。     

纬向平均的风向改变指数与季节转换

通过定义一个能客观定量描述大气环流四维时空变化的风向改变指数WI,用以研究大气环流的时空演变规律和季节转换。在对纬向平均的WI做了经验正交函数(EOF)分析后,得到了其前四个模态。第一模态揭示的是全年平均的WI空间分布的基态。第二模态反映的是WI场的偏差中呈现准调和变化的部分,热带、副热带、温寒带季风区在该模态中均有明显体现。第三模态反映的是WI场的偏差中呈现非调和变化的部分,该部分揭示了因南北半球海陆分布的差异和因大气、海洋流体的非线性效应,其所造成的从春到秋与从秋到春的季节变化的不对称性以及平流层的二月突变现象。第四模态反映的是全球各层盛行风反向区域从春到夏的北进和从夏到秋南撤的现象。     

陕西果业基地伏旱指数及其预报方法

选取陕西苹果(梨)生产基地县中生态环境、气候特点与苹果(梨)产业发展水平具有代表性的10个台站,近40 a(1969—2008年)伏期降水量和无降水日数资料,设计并计算其伏旱指数。将伏旱指数分成强、偏强、中等、偏弱和弱五个等级,并用典型k阶自回归AR(k)预测模式进行独立样本预测试验。结果表明:伏旱指数能够较客观地反映基地县的伏旱强度,且伏旱指数的时空分布特征差异较大。这与这些基地县所处纬度、海拔高度、生态环境和气候背景的差异有关。典型k阶自回归预测模式预测准确及基本准确率在70%左右,预报效果尚好,具有实用价值。     

On the swelling potential of compacted high plasticity clays

We conducted a study of the spatial distributions of seismicity and earthquake hazard parameters for Turkey and the adjacent areas, applying the maximum likelihood method. The procedure allows for the use of either historical or instrumental data, or even a combination of the two. By using this method, we can estimate the earthquake hazard parameters, which include the maximum regional magnitude Mˆ_max, the activity rate of seismic events and the well-known bˆ value, which is the slope of the frequency-magnitude Gutenberg-Richter relationship. These three parameters are determined simultaneously using an iterative scheme. The uncertainty in the determination of the magnitudes was also taken into consideration. The return periods (RP) of earthquakes with a magnitude M ≥ m are also evaluated. The whole examined area is divided into 24 seismic regions based on their seismotectonic regime. The homogeneity of the magnitudes is an essential factor in such studies. In order to achieve homogeneity of the magnitudes, formulas that convert any magnitude to an M_S-surface scale are developed. New completeness cutoffs and their corresponding time intervals are also assessed for each of the 24 seismic regions. Each of the obtained parameters is distributed into its respective seismic region, allowing for an analysis of the localized seismicity parameters and a representation of their regional variation on a map. The earthquake hazard level is also calculated as a function of the form Θ = (Mˆ_max,RP_6.0), and a relative hazard scale (defined as the index K) is defined for each seismic region. The investigated regions are then classified into five groups using these parameters. This classification is useful for theoretical and practical reasons and provides a picture of quantitative seismicity. An attempt is then made to relate these values to the local tectonics.     

Confocal laser scanning microscopy and Raman imagery of ancient microscopic fossils

Among all problems confronting the study of ancient permineralized (petrified) microscopic fossils, two stand out, the need for (1) accurate documentation of their three-dimensional morphology, and (2) direct analysis of their chemical composition and that of their surrounding mineral matrices. To address these problems we demonstrate the use of two techniques that we have recently introduced to Precambrian paleobiology: confocal laser scanning microscopy and Raman imagery. These techniques, both of which are non-intrusive and non-destructive, can provide data by which to characterize, in situ and at micron-scale resolution, the cellular and organismal morphology of thin section-embedded organic-walled fossils. In addition, Raman imagery provides direct analyses of the molecular–structural composition of the kerogenous components of such fossils and of their surrounding matrices, and a means to assess quantitatively the geochemical maturity of the preserved organics. Use of these techniques for studies of ancient microscopic fossils can provide information in three dimensions at high spatial resolution about their morphology and cellular anatomy, taphonomy and fidelity of preservation, composition and mode of preservation, and their biogenicity and syngenetic origin with the rocks in which they occur.     

Measuring fishery profitability: An index number approach

Tracking the financial well-being of vessels that depend on a marine fishery resource is an important function of regulators. This research demonstrates how simple indices can be constructed and utilized to track the economic well-being of vessels operating in the Northeast (USA) Multispecies (Groundfish) Fishery. The indices, which use both public and private data, can separately track trends in inputs, outputs, and prices. For the Northeast Multispecies Fishery, the indices reveal that the economic well-being of the groundfish fleet has improved under catch share management through gains in productivity.     

Mapping crime harm and priority locations in New Zealand: A comparison of spatial analysis methods

Despite progress being advanced with spatial approaches to crime and crime control, the geography of crime harm has to date received little attention. The recent development of “Crime Harm Indices”, which weight crimes by an estimate of the relative harm they cause, offers an opportunity to improve on volume based spatial analysis approaches to identify where crime harm concentrates.This study aims to address this issue via the use of a Crime Harm Index (CHI) developed for New Zealand. By contrast to localized ‘harm-spotting’ analysis, we apply a census unit based approach to identify, at a macro level, the neighborhoods and wider communities suffering the highest crime harm in New Zealand. This approach enables harm to be viewed not only as a total Index but as a rate controlled for population and allows for the identification of census based sociodemographic factors which predict harm. Specifically, this paper compares the CHI with the New Zealand Priority Locations Index (PLI), an existing census unit based crime analysis tool which combines crime and demographic variables to identify communities vulnerable to crime and disorder issues.In this study CHI and PLI scores were calculated for Census Area Units (normally containing 3000–5000 population) across New Zealand. Bivariate correlations and a general linear model were used to determine the relationships between the CHI and PLI and additional population related variables. The CHI and PLI were weakly correlated, with population size and urban/rural categorization also accounting for CHI variance. Mapping techniques are used to illustrate outlier locations where the CHI and PLI differ widely and to identify location features which may assist in explaining CHI/PLI differences.This work exemplifies a novel geographic approach to the problem of crime harm with implications for resource allocation at national through to local levels. Wider implications for the theory and practice of crime and crime harm control are discussed, along with limitations of the study and areas for further research.     

中国公路运输全要素生产率时空演化及区域竞争——基于Hicks-Moorsteen指数框架

运用Hicks-Moorsteen TFP指数法对中国公路运输业全要素生产率进行测度和演化分析。结果发现：2009~2012年中国公路全要素生产率实现了增长,2013~2015年出现下降。2009年来技术进步推动了东部地区公路运输全要素生产率的增长,而运营效率提升则在推动中西部地区公路运输全要素生产率增长时起到了关键作用。中西部地区公路运输效率增长优于东部地区。东部地区在引领技术进步的同时,应注重公路运输效率的提升;中西部地区应注意加大先进技术的引进。政府和主管部门对中西部公路运输应推出持续性支持政策。     

非户籍与户籍人口居住空间分异的多维度解析——以深圳为例

在居住空间相异指数基础上,构建了集聚—分散度、中心—边缘度和极化—均质度指数,进一步挖掘由于人口聚居形态、居住区位和居住质量等方面差异导致的居住空间分异的多维内涵,及其所揭示出的社会经济空间现象、成因及空间治理重点。利用全国第六次人口普查数据开展深圳实证研究,在计算全市及各区分维指数的基础上,分析深圳人口居住空间相异指数特征及空间尺度差异,多维居住空间分异格局特征及成因,并通过聚类分析将深圳非户籍与户籍人口居住空间分异类型划分为三类,分类提出空间治理政策建议。从而为深入理解中国大城市日益出现的居住分异现象及机制提供新鲜视角和多样化测度方法,为解决其带来的社会及空间治理问题提供更有针对性的政策建议。