珠江流域1961-2007年气候变化及2011-2060年预估分析

 根据珠江流域1961-2007年气温、降水量观测资料和ECHAM5/MPI-OM模式2011-2060年预估结果,分析了流域过去47 a的气温和降水量变化,并预估未来50 a变化趋势。结果表明,在全球变暖的背景下,过去47 a温度呈上升趋势,约升高1.8℃。冬季增温最明显,夏季最弱。未来50 a流域温度仍呈上升趋势,A1B情景下升幅约1.9℃,并且年际变化增强。A2和B1两种排放情景下秋季升温最显著,冬季最弱,A1B排放情景与此相反。过去47 a秋季降水量呈减少趋势;春、夏、冬季和年降水量均呈增加趋势。未来50 a降水总体呈增加趋势,A1B排放情景降水增加最多,约为230 mm。A2、A1B和B1情景下降水季节分配未发生显著变化。年降水和冬季降水的年际变率增强,秋季减弱。     

汶川地震灾后农田和森林植被恢复遥感监测

2008年汶川8.0级特大地震对当地的生态系统造成了极大的破坏,为了评估5年来灾区农田和森林植被的恢复情况,利用逐年机载高分辨率遥感影像,结合星载遥感数据和地面调查数据,开展了灾区农林植被恢复状况监测。在农田恢复监测方面,结合2008年地震发生后以及2013年5月中旬的机载高分辨率遥感数据,采用目视解译的方式对汶川地震中受损农田的恢复状况进行监测与评估,同时利用GVG(GPS、Video和GIS)农情采样系统的作物种植成数调查结果,分析了灾后作物种植结构的变化。结果表明,灾区1592 ha受损农田,5年后仅有约17.5%得到了恢复和耕种使用。就耕地利用强度而言,重灾区耕地利用率较高,作物种植结构没有发生重大变化。在森林恢复状况监测方面,对典型区(岷江干旱河谷区和盆周山地区的3个重点区域)采用目视解译方式识别出森林变化,并结合大区域尺度规一化植被指数(NDVI)时间序列变化分析,对整个灾区的森林损毁和恢复情况做出评价。监测结果显示,汶川县、什邡市和绵竹市的森林植被恢复情况总体较好,但是一些坡度较大的损毁区、次生灾害频发区的森林尚未恢复,大区域尺度的统计结果显示,地震重灾区的46381 ha重度损毁森林植被和177025 ha中度损毁森林植被区域,完全恢复的区域占13.52%和25.84%,部分恢复的区域都占到50%。在自然恢复较为困难的区域,如汶川县中部和东北部、都江堰市北部、彭州市北部、什邡市北部、绵竹市北部、安县北部及北川县南部等,需要加强人工干预。遥感监测方法既适用于震后的农田和森林恢复状况动态监测,也适用于其他自然灾害发生时对灾区农田和森林植被破坏状况进行应急监测,具有实际应用价值和良好的发展前景。     

地磁场与气候变化关系的新探索

对地磁场与气候变化的统计研究早已表明，二者有很好的相关关系。本文的目的是对它们的关系给出一种可能的物理解释。利用近600年的地磁场模型资料和全球平均温度序列分析了两者变化的关系，发现它们有很好的对应，且地磁场变化超前于全球气温变化。从地磁场的变化来看，21世纪初全球变暖的趋势应该减缓。文中对地表浅层热场（地热带、火山和地温场）的分布特征与地球内部软流圈－岩石圈边界上焦耳热场的分布特征进行了对比分析。结果表明，地表浅层热场与地球深层焦耳热的分布有很好的对应关系，这可能暗示地表浅层热场是地球深层焦耳热的反映，地磁场通过焦耳热的不断释旋影响气候变化。     

驻马店极端气温分析

利用驻马店10个站气象资料,分析了极端温度的时间变化特征、高温天气与6-8月降水量之间的关系和极端晴热高温、极端湿热高温天气形成的天气背景及影响因子,确定了高温出现的前期预报指标。     

Global sea level change and thermal contribution

The global long-term sea level trend is obtained from the analysis of tide gauge data and TOPEX/Poseidon data. The linear trend of global mean sea level is highly non-umiform spatially, with an average rate of 2.2 mm year-1 in T/P sea-level rise from October 1992 to September 2002. Sea level change duc to temperature vanation (the thermosteric sea level) is discussed. The results are compared with TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter data in the same temporal span at different spatial scales. It is indicated that the ther-mal effect accounts for 86% and 73% of the observed seasonal variability in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. The TOPEX/Poseidon observed sea level lags behind the TSI, by 2 months in the zonal band of 40°-60° in both the northern and southern hemispheres. Systematic differences of about 1-2cm between TOPEX/Poseidon observations and thermosteric sea level data are obtained. The potential causes for these differences include water exchange among the atmosphere, land, and oceans, and some pos-sible deviations in thermosteric contribution estimates and geophysical corrections to the TOPEX/Poseidon data.     

Status of the Recent Declining of Arctic Sea Ice Studies

In the past 30 years, a large-scale change occurred in the Arctic climatic system, which had never been observed before 1980s. At the same time, the Arctic sea ice experienced a special evolution with more and more rapidly dramatic declining. In this circumstance, the Arctic sea ice became a new focus of the Arctic research. The recent advancements about abrupt change of the Arctic sea ice are reviewed in this paper .The previous analyses have demonstrated the accelerated declining trend of Arctic sea ice extent in the past 30 years, based on in-situ and satellite-based observations of atmosphere, as well as the results of global and regional climate simulations. Especially in summer, the rate of decrease for the ice extents was above 10% per decade. In present paper, the evolution characteristics of the arctic sea ice and its possible cause are discussed in three aspects, i.e. the sea ice physical properties, the interaction process of sea ice, ocean and atmosphere and its response and feedback mechanism to global and arctic climate system.     

ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES SINCE LATE PLEISTOCENE IN ESTUARINE PLAIN OF JIULONG RIVER, FUJIAN PROVINCE

TheestuarineplainoftheJiulongRiver,whichisthesecondlargestrivernexttotheMinjiangRiverinFujianPrc)vince,intervenesbetweenXi~enandZhangzhoucitiesinthesouthoftheprovince.'I'heplainconsistsofthreeparts:thenorthernplain,thesouthernPlainandZiniIsles.Withsoutllcrn--Subtr<)picoceanicm(>nasexinclimate,itdevelol>saregionalvegetationtypeofeveTgreen13r(Jad--lcav(3dfores[,ofwhicll,however,mosthasbeendestroyedbyhumanbeing.Nowaday-s.shruborgrasslandvegetationcanbeseenonthehillsintheviciTlily'ofthisarea…     

古气候演化特征、驱动与反馈及对现代气候变化研究的启示意义

古气候与现代气候变化研究如何有效结合,特别是古气候研究如何为理解现代气候变化过程提供背景条件、边界约束和理论框架,值得深入探讨。文章以现代、历史时期、全新世、晚第四纪和新生代为时间基线,回顾阐述了过去气候演变特征、成因机制及其对现代气候变化研究的启示意义,探讨了过去与现代气候变化融合研究中存在的不确定性。过去气候演化过程的研究,加深了人们对地球气候系统运行机制的理解。研究表明,各个时期中,地球气候经历了不同相位、幅度和速率的变化,气候系统各分量之间发生了复杂的相互作用,以地表温度为代表的地球表面热力环境演化是各不同阶段气候变化的基本表现形式。全球温度变化不仅受到太阳输出辐射、地球轨道参数和地球构造运动等的影响,而且与地球表层水圈中的海洋、冰冻圈中的大陆冰盖、生物圈中的海洋浮游生物和陆地植被,以及大气圈中的温室气体、粉尘气溶胶、水汽和云等活跃组分之间,存在着多尺度复杂反馈作用。在同一时间尺度上,气候系统分量的互馈通路可能是同向的、可比的,各分量之间的对应关系或具有一致性,研究结论对于预估未来气候变化有借鉴意义;但在不同时间尺度上,气候系统各分量之间的相互联系机制可能难有一致性和可比性,古今互鉴,就需要慎重。

     

Advances and Practices on the Research,Prevention and Control of Land Subsidence in Coastal Cities

Land subsidence severely threatens most of the coastal plains around the world where high productive industrial and agricultural activities and urban centers are concentrated. Coastal subsidence damages infrastructures and exacerbates the effect of the sea-level rise at regional scale. Although it is a well-known process, there is still much more to be improved on the monitoring, mapping and modeling of ground movements, as well as the understanding of controlling mechanisms. The International G...     

New Modes of Environmental Governance in Greater Sage-Grouse Conservation in Oregon

Abstract

Natural resource challenges often span administrative jurisdictions and include actors and processes operating at different spatial and political scales. We applied concepts of new environmental governance to analyze Oregon’s approach to greater sage-grouse conservation. Through one in-depth case study in Lake County, we traced features of new environmental governance (cross-scale interactions, decentralization, and capacities of actors) through different governance levels. Interviews and qualitative analysis revealed that decentralization of administrative functions facilitated cross-scale interactions and relied on intermediaries, gap-filling, and perceptions of legitimacy at lower levels. State and agency guidelines steered the effort and were accompanied by financial and technical resources from multiple arenas, which increased local capacity. This study adds to the understandings of environmental governance for implementing multi-actor, multi-level conservation arrangements in resource-dependent communities. Further exploration of connections between higher levels and local contexts will reveal important, new ways to link policies with on-the-ground outcomes.