基于MATLAB的主成分RBF神经网络降水预报模型

以前期500 hPa高度场、海温场为预报因子,采用径向基函数(RBF)神经网络与主成分分析相结合的方法,建立了广西中部5月平均降水预报模型。在5年独立样本的预测检验中,预测的平均相对误差、均方误差及平均绝对误差分别为18.12%、50.52和34.23。对比分析RBF神经网络与BP(Back Propagation)神经网络的预测结果,表明RBF神经网络预测结果更准确、精度更高。     

基于内涝模型的西安市区强降水内涝成因分析

利用西安市近10～40年降水资料、市政信息资料,采用统计学方法,分析了强降水内涝的成因.结果表明:短时强降水或过程量偏大的降水天气过程是引发西安市内涝的直接气象因素;排水能力的强弱是发生内涝关键因素;随着城市化的发展,极端雨强的强度及大于10 mm/h降水的总时次数均有上升趋势,强降水发生概率的提高加强了内涝灾害发生频率及强度,城市效应是内涝加强的主要原因.用西安市强降水内涝仿真模型来进行模拟试验表明:西安是一个内涝发生降水雨强临界值偏低的城市,小时雨强3 mm/h、13 mm/h是发生内涝、严重内涝的临界值,天气预报、雨情监测重点及市政防御关键部位是西北区.总体上缩小井距效果好一些.     

The Impact of Moist Physics on the Sensitive Area Identification for Heavy Rainfall Associated Weather Systems

The impact of moist physics on the sensitive areas identified by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP)is examined based on four typical heavy rainfall cases in northern China through performing numerical experiments with and without moist physics.Results show that the CNOP with moist physics identifies sensitive areas corresponding to both the lower-(850?700 hPa)and upper-level(300?100 hPa)weather systems,while the CNOP without moist physics fails to capture the sensitive areas at lower levels.The reasons for the CNOP peaking at different levels can be explained in both algorithm and physics aspects.Firstly,the gradient of the cost function with respect to initial perturbations peaks at the upper level without moist physics which results in the upper-level peak of the CNOP,while it peaks at both the upper and lower levels with moist physics which results in both the upper-and lower-level peaks of the CNOP.Secondly,the upper-level sensitive area is associated with high baroclinicity,and these dynamic features can be captured by both CNOPs with and without moist physics.The lower-level sensitive area is associated with moist processes,and this thermodynamic feature can be captured only by the CNOP with moist physics.This result demonstrates the important contribution of the initial error of lower-level systems that are related to water vapor transportation to the forecast error of heavy rainfall associated weather systems,which could be an important reference for heavy rainfall observation targeting.     

Analytical solution to 1D coupled water infiltration and deformation in unsaturated soils

An analytical solution to 1D coupled water infiltration and deformation is derived using a Fourier integral transform. Exponential functional forms are used to represent the hydraulic conductivity–pore‐water pressure relationship and the soil‐water characteristic curve. Fredlund's incremental‐linear constitutive model for unsaturated soils is adopted. The analytical solution considers arbitrary initial pore‐water pressure distributions and flux and pressure boundary conditions. The corresponding analytical solutions to coupled steady‐state problems are also obtained. The analytical solutions demonstrate that the coupling of seepage and deformation plays an important role in water infiltration in unsaturated soils. In the early stages of infiltration, the difference between uncoupled and coupled conditions becomes marked over time, and in late stages, the difference caused by the coupling effects diminishes toward the steady state. The difference between the uncoupled and coupled conditions increases with decreasing desaturation coefficient (α). Pore‐water pressure or deformation changes caused by the coupling effects are mainly controlled by the degree of soil volume change due to a change in soil suction (H). The smaller the absolute value of H, the greater the effect of coupling on the infiltration and deformation. The ratio of rainfall intensity to saturated permeability (q/k_s) also has a strong influence on the coupled seepage and deformation. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Influence of thawed soil depth on rainfall erosion of frozen bare meadow soil in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

The Qinghai–Tibet Plateau has a vast area of approximately 70×10⁴ km² of alpine meadow under the impacts of soil freezing and thawing, thereby inducing intensive water erosion. Quantifying the rainfall erosion process of partially thawed soil provides the basis for model simulation of soil erosion on cold-region hillslopes. In this study, we conducted a laboratory experiment on rainfall-induced erosion of partially thawed soil slope under four slope gradients (5, 10, 15, and 20°), three rainfall intensities (30, 60, and 90 mm h⁻¹), and three thawed soil depths (1, 2, and 10 cm). The results indicated that shallow thawed soil depth aggravated soil erosion of partially thawed soil slopes under low hydrodynamic conditions (rainfall intensity of 30 mm h⁻¹ and slope gradient ≤ 15°), whereas it inhibited erosion under high hydrodynamic conditions (rainfall intensity ≥ 60 mm h⁻¹ or slope gradient > 15°). Soil erosion was controlled by the thawed soil depth and runoff hydrodynamic conditions. When the sediment supply was sufficient, the shallow thawed soil depth had a higher erosion potential and a larger sediment concentration. On the contrary, when the sediment supply was insufficient, the shallow thawed soil depth resulted in lower sediment erosion and a smaller sediment concentration. The hydrodynamic runoff conditions determined whether the sediment supply was sufficient. We propose a model to predict sediment delivery under different slope gradients, rainfall intensities, and thawed soil depths. The model, with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.95, accurately predicted the sediment delivery under different conditions, which was helpful for quantification of the complex feedback of sediment delivery to the factors influencing rainfall erosion of partially thawed soil. This study provides valuable insights into the rainfall erosion mechanism of partially thawed soil slopes in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau and provides a basis for further studies on soil erosion under different hydrodynamic conditions.     

Comparison of the return period for landslide-triggering rainfall events in Japan based on standardization of the rainfall period

The intensity of rainfall events with potential to cause landslides has varying temporal characteristics. In this study, the time at which the 72-h accumulated rainfall reached its maximum was used to standardize the period of rainfall measurement. The proposed standardization of the rainfall period was used in conjunction with the return level of rainfall intensity, obtained from intensity–duration–frequency curves, to investigate rainfall intensity anomalies associated with 10 hazardous rainfall events that triggered numerous landslides at the regional scale in Japan. These landslides included shallow landslides in volcanic and non-volcanic areas, as well as deep-seated landslides. The rainfall events that triggered the shallow landslides were divided into two types: downpours that repeatedly reached close to the 100-year return level within approximately 3–4 h, and accumulated rainfall that reached close to 200–400 mm over longer time intervals but within 72 h. Lithological differences seemed unrelated to the differences between the two types of shallow-landslide-triggering rainfall; however, precipitation >1000 mm was necessary to trigger deep-seated landslides. Although the characteristics of the hyetographs differed markedly among the landslide-triggering rainfall events, all the landslides could have been triggered when the mean rainfall intensity reached the 100-year rainfall level during the standardized period. Thus, the landslide trigger can be evaluated indirectly based on the increase in the return level of the mean rainfall intensity, which could provide a means for estimating the time of landslide occurrence.     

洪水预报模型输入与输出的误差分布及相关性分析

降雨预报信息作为洪水预报模型的输入,该信息的准确性直接影响洪水预报模型输出的准确性.为探究模型输入(降雨预报)误差与输出(洪水预报)误差之间的关系,以英那河流域为例,分析了不同雨量等级下,预报模型的输入误差与输出误差的分布规律,并定性分析了两种误差的相关关系.结果表明,降雨量等级若为无雨及小雨时,两种误差不相关;若为中...     

青藏高原大气水汽收支特征及影响

Based on 1961-2000 NCEP/NCAR monthly mean reanalysis datasets, vapor transfer and hydrological budget over the Tibetan Plateau are investigated. The Plateau is a vapor sink all the year round. In summer, vapor is convergent in lower levels (from surface to 500 hPa) and divergent in upper levels (from 400 to 300 hPa), with 450 hPa referred to as level of non-divergence. Two levels have different hydrologic budget signatures: the budget is negative at the upper levels from February to November, i.e., vapor transfers from the upper levels over the plateau; as to the lower, the negative (positive) budget occurs during the winter (summer) half year. Evidence also indicates that Tibetan Plateau is a "vapor transition belt", vapor from the south and the west is transferred from lower to upper levels there in summer, which will affect surrounding regions, including eastern China, especially, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze. Vapor transfer exerts significant influence on precipitation in summertime months. Vapor transferred from the upper layers helps humidify eastern China, with coefficient -0.3 of the upper budget to the precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze (MLRY); also, vapor transferred from east side (27.5°-32.5°N) of the upper level has remarkable relationship with precipitation, the coefficient being 0.41. The convergence of the lower level vapor has great effects on the local precipitation over the plateau, with coefficient reaching 0.44, and the vapor passage affects the advance and retreat of the rainbelt. In general, atmospheric hydrologic budget and vapor transfer over the plateau have noticeable effects on precipitation of the target region as well as the ambient areas.     

甘肃岷县永光村滑坡特征及其成因研究

泥流型黄土滑坡发生的条件除一般滑坡具有的条件之外,还应包括特殊的状态因素、触发因素及相应的驱动剪应力条件。通过对甘肃岷县永光村滑坡的现场勘察和实地调查,分析其成因,结果表明：永光村滑坡平面形态虽与泥流类似,但其具有滑坡形成区以及滑坡发生所需要的特殊的地形地貌、岩土体性质以及水文地质条件。永光村滑坡发育于沟道上游的黄土塬地带,临空面较大,滑坡剪出口位置高,具有较高的势能,滑坡体的主要岩土体是马兰黄土,黄土具有大孔隙结构,垂直节理发育,有利于地表水的下渗。下部为新近系泥岩,渗透系数低,为一相对隔水层。长期灌溉导致地下水位较高,黄土层存在软弱夹层,地下水位上升,导致其软化饱和,强度迅速降低,形成潜在滑动面。永光村滑坡亦具有圆弧形的滑坡后壁,滑坡后缘顶部分布有多条拉张裂缝,在前期发生降雨的外部条件下,在岷县“7·22”地震诱发下,发生了低角度、快速和远程的泥流型黄土滑坡,滑体在冲出沟口后形成了扇形堆积区。永光村滑坡是一种特殊的地震引发的泥流型黄土滑坡。目前,泥流型黄土滑坡的研究还处在探索阶段,是作为黄土滑坡分类的一种补充,建议进一步加强对此类灾害发生机理及其稳定性计算方法的深入研究。     

非饱和黄土地基降雨入渗离心模型试验及多物理量联合监测

对非饱和土降雨入渗过程及其致灾机制的深入认识有赖于室内外试验及多物理量联合监测。基于离心机超重力环境下土体响应监测技术,开展了非饱和黄土地基降雨入渗离心模型试验,测试研究了超重力环境对新研制的微型TDR探针及张力计测量的影响规律,并利用TDR、张力计及弯曲元对降雨入渗过程中土体响应进行多物理量联合监测。研究结果表明:在不同离心加速度下微型TDR探针与给定含水率土体实测原始波形重合,说明超重力环境对TDR测试没有影响,含水率的测试误差在2%以内。在离心机加速过程中,张力计所测吸力下降约2.0~2.9 kPa,当离心加速度稳定在40g时,所测吸力在10min内上升并接近常重力下土体初始吸力。在降雨入渗过程中,埋设在同一深度的TDR探针、张力计和弯曲元对湿润锋响应的时间点基本一致,降雨入渗导致土体含水率增加,基质吸力降低,剪切波速降低。这些多物理量监测数据有助于建立非饱和土含水率-吸力-剪切模量之间的关系。