陕西关中盆地大气降水同位素研究

大气降水作为地下水的主要补给源之一,它是自然界水循环过程中的一个重要环节.查明大气降水中同位素分布特征及其影响因素,不仅有助于定性或定量地研究地下水的起源和形成等问题,更有助于揭示"三水"转化关系.根据全球大气降水同位素观测网 1985～1993 年大气降水氢氧同位素资料并结合所采集样品的分析结果对陕西关中盆地大气降水环境同位素特征、变化规律及其影响因素进行了探讨,建立了西安地区雨水线,为地下水的起源及运移研究奠定了基础.     

降雨对斜坡失稳的影响作用探讨

降雨入渗是致使斜坡岩土体稳定性下降并最终导致崩塌、滑坡等地质灾害发生最为常见的环境因素.通过分析,得出降雨有增大斜坡下滑力及致使抗剪强度降低的作用,并通过对比某斜坡在自然状态及降雨状态下的稳定性及剩余下滑力,证明了降雨对斜坡失稳具有较大影响.     

遥测降雨抗差分析方法应用研究

遥测系统观测的雨量资料常会包含粗差，根据降雨量的特征，结合抗差理论，包为民等曾提出三步抗差修正方法。将此法应用到龙颈上水库等10个水库流域的实测资料当中，验证其有效性，并分析比较各步抗差修正的效果及降雨特征与抗差效果之间的关系。结果表明，抗差修正方法可行，且第一步和第三步结合的修正效果最好；降雨中心较明确，多年降雨特征相似，强度变幅稳定的洪水，不容易出现误抗。     

Limitations of real-time models for forecasting river flooding from monsoon rainfall

Very intense rainfall during the southwest and northeast monsoons causes severe river flooding in India. Some traditional techniques used for real-time forecasting of flooding involve the relationship between effective rainfall and direct surface runoff, which simplifies the complex interactions between rainfall and runoff processes. There are, however, serious problems in deducing these variables in real time, so it is highly desirable to have a real-time flood forecasting model that would directly relate the observed discharge hydrograph to the observed rainfall. The storage routing model described by Baba and Hoshi (1997), Tanaka et al. (1997), and Baba et al. (2000), and a simplified version of this model, have been used to compute observed river discharge directly from observed hourly rainfall. This method has been used to study rainfall–runoff data of the Ajay River Basin in eastern India. Five intense rainfall events of this basin were studied. Our results showed that the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of discharge prediction for these five events was 98.6%, 94.3%, 86.9%, 85.6%, and 67%. The hindcast for the first two events is regarded as completely satisfactory whereas for the next two events it is deemed reasonable and for the fifth it is unsatisfactory. It seems the models will yield accurate hindcast if the rainfall is uniform over the drainage basin. When the rainfall is not uniform the performance of the model is unsatisfactory. In future this problem can, in principle, be corrected by using a weighted amount if rainfall is based upon multiple rain-gauge observations over the drainage basin. This would provide some measure of the dispersion in the rainfall. The model also seems unable to simulate flooding events with multiple peaks.     

威连滩冲沟砂黄土的风蚀与降雨侵蚀模拟实验

 通过风洞与模拟降雨实验，研究了风力与降雨对青海省贵南县威连滩冲沟砂黄土的复合侵蚀作用。实验得出：①风蚀后的降雨使砂黄土表面在风干过程中形成了一层较为坚硬的结壳，增大了土壤的抗蚀性，降低了第二次风洞实验后期的风蚀率;②土壤水分与人为扰动是影响土壤风蚀的两个重要因素。当土壤水分较小时，风蚀率受人为扰动影响巨大;当土壤水分较大时，人为扰动对土壤风蚀的影响较小;③在持续降雨的实验条件下，砂黄土的产流、产沙量随着雨强的变化而改变。这种变化与表土的侵蚀率、可蚀性物质的多少、土壤水分以及土壤的入渗率等都有很大的关系。     

新一代天气雷达在泥石流灾害中的应用探讨

天气雷达的发展大致经历了4个阶段，其主要用于监测强对流天气、定量估计降水，是气象部门的重要探测和监测手段之一。新一代天气雷达观测的实时回波强度（Z）、径向风速（V）、速度谱宽（W）的回波图像中，提供了丰富的有关强对流天气的信息，综合使用Z、V、W的图像分析，有利于较准确和及时地监测灾害性天气。云南滑坡泥石流灾害高发区与云南暴雨中心有很好的对应关系，云南滑坡泥石流灾害空间分布与暴雨空间分布的空间相关系数为0．19，通过了0．05的显著性水平检验，也进一步说明云南暴雨在滑坡泥石流灾害发生中起着重要作用。以2004年7月5日德宏州特大山洪泥石流灾害为例子，探讨了新一代天气雷达在泥石流灾害的临阵预警中的应用。     

Regional variability in relationships between climate and dengue/DHF in Indonesia

Since 1970, the worldwide distribution, frequency and intensity of epidemics of dengue and dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) have increased dramatically. In Indonesia, as elsewhere, the geographic distribution and behaviour of the two main vectors – Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus – and the consequent transmission dynamics of the disease are strongly influenced by climate. Monthly incidence data were examined in relation to monthly data for temperature, rainfall, rainfall anomalies, humidity and the Southern Oscillation Index for 1992–2001. Focusing on eight provinces, significant Pearson correlations were observed between dengue/DHF incidence and at least one climate variable ( r  = ±0.2 to ±0.43; P  < 0.05). Multiple regression analyses showed that 12.9–24.5 per cent of variance in incidence was explained by two or three climate variables in each province ( P  < 0.1–0.01). Rainfall appears to be the principal climatic agent affecting the geographic distribution and temporal pattern of incidence while temperature appears to play a critical role in outbreak intensity. Wide regional and temporal variations in the strength and nature of the observed associations led to the identification of three groups of provinces where increases in dengue/DHF incidence were variously associated with increased rainfall, decreased rainfall and/or high susceptibility to climate variability. Although climatic factors play an important role in explaining the timing and intensity of dengue/DHF outbreaks, a wide range of other factors specific to local environments also appear to be involved – information that may assist in the prediction and mitigation of regional dengue/DHF outbreaks.     

Study on snowmelt runoff simulation in the Kaidu River basin

Alpine snowmelt is an important generation mode for runoff in the source region of the Tarim River basin, which covers four subbasins characterized by large area, sparse gauge stations, mixed runoff supplied by snowmelt and rainfall, and remarkably spatially heterogeneous precipitation. Taking the Kaidu River basin as a research area, this study analyzes the influence of these characteristics on the variables and parameters of the Snow Runoff Model and discusses the corresponding determination strategy to improve the accuracy of snowmelt simulation and forecast. The results show that: (i) The temperature controls the overall tendency of simulated runoff and is dominant to simulation accuracy, as the measured daily mean temperature cannot represent the average level of the same elevation in the basin and that directly inputting it to model leads to inaccurate simulations. Based on the analysis of remote sensing snow maps and simulation results, it is reasonable to approximate the mean temperature with 0.5 time daily maximum temperature. (ii) For the conflict between the limited gauge sta-tion and remarkably spatial heterogeneity of rainfall, it is not realistic to compute rainfall for each elevation zone. After the measured rainfall is multiplied by a proper coefficient and adjusted with runoff coefficient for rainfall, the measured rainfall data can satisfy the model demands. (iii) Adjusting time lag according to the variation of snowmelt and rainfall position can improve the simulation precision of the flood peak process. (iv) Along with temperature, the rainfall increases but cannot be completely monitored by limited gauge stations, which results in precision deterioration.     

An Experiment Using the High Resolution Eta and WRF Models to Forecast Heavy Precipitation over India

In the present study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Eta models, recent heavy rainfall events that occurred (i) over parts of Maharastra during 26 to 27 July, 2005, (ii) over coastal Tamilnadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh during 24 to 28 October, 2005, and (iii) the tropical cyclone of 30 September to 3 October, 2004/Monsoon Depression of 2 to 5 October 2004, that developed during the withdrawal phase of the southwest monsoon season of 2004 have been investigated. Also sensitivity experiments have been conducted with the WRF model to test the impact of microphysical and cumulus parameterization schemes in capturing the extreme weather events. The results show that the WRF model with the microphysical process and cumulus parameterization schemes of Ferrier et al. and Betts-Miller-Janjic was able to capture the heavy rainfall events better than the other schemes. It is also observed that the WRF model was able to predict mesoscale rainfall more realistically in comparison to the Eta model of the same resolution.     

Simulation of the dissolution of weathered versus unweathered limestone in carbonic acid solutions of varying strength

A simulation was undertaken within a climatic chamber to investigate limestone dissolution under varied carbonic acid (H₂CO₃) strengths as a possible analogue for future increases in atmospheric CO₂ arising from global warming. Twenty‐eight samples cut from a block of Bath (Box Hill) limestone from Somerville College, Oxford, which had been removed during restoration after 150 years in an urban environment, were weighed and placed in closed bottles of thin plastic containing varying concentrations of H₂CO₃. Half of the stone samples were derived from exposed surfaces of the stone block (weathered) while the others were obtained from the centre of the block on unexposed surfaces (unweathered). The purpose of this was to compare dissolution of previously weathered versus unweathered surfaces in strong (pH 4·73) versus weak (pH 6·43) solutions of H₂CO₃. A temperature of c. 19 °C was maintained within the chamber representing a plausible future temperature in Oxford for the year 2200 given current warming scenarios. The simulation lasted 25 days with a few stone samples being removed midway. Stone samples show reduced weight in all cases but one. There was greater dissolution of stone samples in a strong H₂CO₃ solution as conveyed by higher concentrations of total hardness and Ca²⁺ in the water samples as well as enhanced microscopic dissolution features identified using SEM. The simulation confirms that enhanced atmospheric CO₂ under global warming, given adequate moisture, will accelerate dissolution rates particularly of newly replaced limestone building stones. However, previously weathered surfaces, such as those on historical stone exposed for a century or more, appear to be less susceptible to the effects of such increased rainfall acidity. Conservation techniques which remove weathered surfaces, such as stone cleaning, may accelerate future decay of historical limestone structures by increasing their susceptibility to dissolution. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.