Sea-level rise: A review of recent past and near-future trends

Global mean sea level is a potentially sensitive indicator of climate change. Global warming will contribute to worldwide sea-level rise (SLR) from thermal expansion of ocean water, melting of mountain glaciers and polar ice sheets. A number of studies, mostly using tide-gauge data from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level, Bidston Observatory, England, have obtained rates of global SLR within the last 100 years that range between 0·3 and 3 mm yr^?1, with most values concentrated between 1 and 2 mm yr^?1. However, the reliability of these results has been questioned because of problems with data quality and physical processes that introduce a high level of spatial and temporal variability. Sources of uncertainty in the sea-level data include variations in winds, ocean currents, river runoff, vertical earth movements, and geographically uneven distribution of long-term records. Crustal motions introduce a major source of error. To a large extent, these can be filtered by employing palaeo-sea-level proxies, and geophysical modelling to remove glacio-isostatic changes. Ultimately, satellite geodesy will help resolve the inherent ambiguity between the land and ocean level changes recorded by tide gauges. Future sea level is expected to rise by ～ 1 m, with a ‘best-guess’ value of 48 cm by the year 2100. Such rates represent an acceleration of four to seven times over present rates. Local land subsidence could substantially increase the apparent SLR. For example, Louisiana is currently experiencing SLR trends nearly 10 times the global mean rate. These recently reduced SLR estimates are based on climate models that predict a zero to negative contribution to SLR from Antarctica. Most global climate models (GCMs) indicate an ice accumulation over Antarctica, because in a warmer world, precipitation will exceed ablation/snow-melt. However, the impacts of attritional processes, such as thinning of the ice shelves, have been downplayed according to some experts. Furthermore, not all climate models are in agreement. Opposite conclusions may be drawn from the results of other GCMs. In addition, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is potentially subject to dynamic and volcanic instabilities that are difficult to predict. Because of the great uncertainty in SLR projections, careful monitoring of future sea-level trends by upgraded tide-gauge networks and satellite geodesy will become essential. Finally, because of the high spatial variability in crustal subsidence rates, wave climates and tidal regimes, it will be the set of local conditions (especially the relative sea-level rise), rather than a single global mean sea-level trend, that will determine each locality's vulnerability to future SLR.     

湖南衡山冰雪资源及其旅游开发

湖南衡山虽地处中亚热带，但特殊的位置和明显的重直地带性使其上部冬季气候与北京相似，冰雪旅游资源十分丰富，交通发达，客源充足，旅游设施齐全，其他旅游资源配合紧密，具有很好的开发利用价值。几年来衡山冬季旅游发展缓慢，有关部门应提高认识，增加冰雪旅游景目、改造部分旅舍、加强对外宣传、搞好旅游服务，才能把衡山冰雪旅游推上一个新台阶。     

1975—1986年古田水库人工降雨效果总分析

本文对福建省古田水库地区1975—1986年人工降雨试验效果进行总评价.12年共进行244次随机试验,三种不同的统计分析方法(区域回归分析法、双比分析法和多元回归分析法)均表示122次催化平均相对增雨在20％左右,显著度高于5％水平.此外,按云型、天气条件、雷达回波顶温度分类统计,为选择有利作业条件提供科学依据.云和降水物理观测(冰核、雨水中银离子含量、雷达回波和雨滴谱)及数值模拟的工作,其结果为人工增雨统计结论提供某些初步物理学解释.     

中原地区晚全新世以来的环境变化

本文利用丰富的历史资料和树木年轮资料,恢复了我国中原地区晚全新世2000余年以来的环境变化,建立了2200余年的降水变化序列。划分了晚全新世以来本地区的干湿和冷暖期。受晚全新世以来的季风环流的影响,本地区环境变化的基本模式是暖湿与冷干对应。然而,在小冰期时期特别是17世纪下半叶以后,这种模式有所改变,即冷湿对应。其主要原因作者认为有二:一是小冰期时期天气系统超常不稳定,这是由于地球气候系统的内外因素改变造成的;二是小冰期时夏季风锋面南移至中原一带,增加了本地区的降水。最后还讨论了晚全新世以来本地区季风变化的过程、机制以及它们所带来的环境变化。并提出了未来环境变化的可能趋向。     

Modelling late-holocene snow-avalanche activity: Incorporating a new approach to lichenometry

Where snow avalanches descend steeply into large rivers, displacing bedload, avalanche boulder-ramparts may accumulate, retaining a record of late-Holocene snow-avalanche frequency. The age frequency of surface boulders on 12 such features in upper Jostedalen, southern Norway, was investigated using the size-frequency distribution of lichens. A model was constructed to simulate the influence of variations in avalanche frequency since AD 1325 on lichen-size-frequency distributions. Using this modelling approach it is not possible to define a unique pattern of avalanche activity to account for the observed lichen-size-frequency distributions, but it is possible to place strict limits on the range of scenarios that are acceptable. The results suggest that maximum avalanche activity occurred during the 19th century, after the peak of the Little Ice Age. This conflicts with historical records of avalanche damage to property at lower altitude in nearby valleys, which may reflect avalanche activity only during a short period of extreme climatic conditions. Close agreement between the records of snow avalanches and debris flows suggests that both reflect periods of high winter snowfall and rapid spring melting rather than low temperature. Future ‘greenhouse warming’ may therefore result in increased avalanche activity in southern Norway.     

冰川作用区的温度及其特征

本文通过西昆仑山崇侧冰川区的观测资料。揭示了冰川区和非冰雪区气温的日变化,垂直和水平方向的摘变以及季节变化。结果表明,冰雪区气温的日变化小,而昼夜温差大,全天均为绝热稳定区。非冰雪区白天为绝热不稳定状态,夜晚存在逆温现象。接近冰雪区地带气温递减率较大。水平方向温差主要发生在冰雪区前缘地带。由此,提出了冰川区特有的现象——“冰川锋”,并给出了该地区作为青藏高原最冷区域之一的一些数值。     

南极洲纳尔逊冰帽浅层粒雪／冰的晶体组构特征

对纳尔逊冰帽３个地点浅层粒雪／冰芯的晶体组构测量表明，冰晶ｃ轴在冰帽表面具有优势方位，２０ｍ深度内普遍出现双扇形组构，在２０－３０ｍ深度具有向单极大型变化的趋势。这与所报道的中低纬度山地温冰川上的晶体组构特征有明显不同。估计大量融水渗浸和再冻结作用对冰晶组构有重要影响，但详细机制尚不清楚     

不同环境温度下冰云粒子的单次散射参量

本文提出了直接Stokes参量变换的射线追踪方案,优化了作者过去建立的求解六角冰晶粒子散射的射线追踪模式.在冰晶有吸收(折射指数为复数)的情况下,新模式采用了有效折射指数处理粒子内的非单色折射波.其次,新模式还引入了有效单次散射参量,消除了来自几何透射线的前向δ散射效应.最后,根据不同环境温度下的冰云中冰晶粒子的粒径谱分布,本文计算了粒径谱积分平均的3D随机取向六角冰晶粒子的单次散射参量.文中给出的冰晶粒子单次散射参量的数值,对研究冰云辐射特性将有一定参考价值.     

用超声速气流产生冰晶的试验及测定

在２ｍ３等温云室中进行了塑料小泡压爆及超声速气流在过冷雾中产生冰晶性能的试验，在－１℃到－１７℃温度范围内测试其产生冰晶效率。发现这两种方法均能在过冷雾中产生大量冰晶，直到－１℃。在－８℃时每升空气产生的冰晶为１０１１－１０１２量级。是一种经济有效的催化过冷云雾的方法，很有应用前景。     

乌鲁木齐河流冰椎及其利用研究

通过对河冰椎多年系统观测，对比分析其形成和发育，大致经过冰椎形成、发育、稳定、融化－冻结和消亡５年阶段。冰椎与稳定负温期的积温Σ－ｔ℃、土石冻（融）、空气相对湿度及水源补给形式有较高的相关性，为人工调蓄利用冰椎提供了科学依据。