1996-2011 年南非人口空间分布格局与演变特征

南非是中国在非洲的最大投资目的地与经贸合作伙伴, 特别在基础设施建设方面发展迅速。南非人口空间分布研究对开展中南合作具有重要意义。本文通过收集整理南非历年来的全国人口普查资料统计数据, 运用空间自相关模型、不均衡指数、人口重心模型和偏移—分享模型, 分析了南非人口的空间分布格局和演变特征。研究结果表明, 南非人口分布具有显著的“东高西低”的空间格局, 呈现出以工业化程度较高的大都市区和港口城市为中心的“多核心”集聚的分布特征;空间自相关分析得出人口高集聚区主要分布在大都市区和沿海港口城市, 低密度集聚区主要集中分布在中西部地区;从变化趋势上来看, 1996-2011 年间人口分布不平衡趋势不断加强, 人口重心向西北方向移动;偏移—分享分析表明, 南非人口增长速度先后经历了从1996-2001 年快速增长到2001-2007 年缓慢增长, 再到2007-2011 年高速增长的“高—低—高”增长阶段;省域层面上看, 豪登省和西开普省一直是南非人口集聚较强地区。     

基于AHP与模糊综合评价方法的南沙东部岛礁战略价值评价

南沙群岛是沟通太平洋与印度洋、联系亚欧大陆的交通要冲,具有重要的战略地位,在目前南沙众多岛礁被南海周边国家非法占据的背景下,控制未占领岛礁是维护我国主权和领土完整的有效手段,评价未占领岛礁的战略价值具有深远意义。研究基于AHP和模糊综合评价方法,选取五方礁、信义礁、海口礁、半月礁、舰长礁5座环礁为研究对象,通过建立评价要素指标体系,构建模糊综合评价模型,从主权价值、军事价值、航道控制价值和资源控制价值4个方面对岛礁战略价值进行综合评价,分析其战略意义和建设潜力结果显示,5个环礁的岛礁战略价值从高到低分别为五方礁（90.57）、半月礁（86.99）、信义礁（74.09）、舰长礁（65.94）、海口礁（58.12）,其中五方礁和半月礁战略价值最高,具有很大的发展潜力。     

QBO 与南海夏季风爆发的关系

利用1979—2001 年ECMWF 再分析资料和NOAA 海温资料,通过相关分析和合成分析等统计方法,分析了平流层准两年周期振荡(QBO)与南海夏季风建立时间的关系。结果表明,QBO 位相与南海夏季风爆发时间有显著的相关关系:超前南海夏季风爆发约18 个月的QBO 西(东)风位相对应着季风爆发时间偏早(晚)。QBO 与南海夏季风爆发的联系要比ENSO 与南海夏季风爆发的联系更密切。      

Cost Shifting in Australian Local Government: an analysis of the spatial impact of pensioner rate concession rebates in New South Wales,Australia

The problem of cost shifting from higher tiers of government to local councils in Australia is widely recognised and has been investigated by several official inquiries. However, it has thus far been difficult to gather reliable estimates of the magnitude of the problem. Quite apart from the taxing definitional and data problems associated with the phenomenon, these difficulties have been compounded by the fact that very few attempts have been made to measure the impact of specific instances of cost shifting in Australian local government, especially its spatial impact. In an attempt to remedy this neglect, this paper seeks to measure the spatial effects of pensioner rate concession rebates on local councils in New South Wales.     

Classification of washover dynamics in barrier islands

This study systematically classifies washover dynamics with reference to coastal changes along the Ria Formosa barrier islands (Southern Portugal). Identification of washovers using a sequence of 11 sets of aerial photographs dated between 1947 and 2001 allowed a classification to be developed based on: (1) overwash evolution (increasing, decreasing, or constant overwash processes); (2) the mechanisms promoting washover formation (exceptional to infrequent oceanographic conditions, washout processes, structural erosion, inlet dynamics, and human interventions); and (3) the mechanisms promoting washover cessation (berm development, structural erosion, dune development, inlet dynamics, and human interventions). A total of 369 different washovers were observed along the Ria Formosa barriers during the study period, with 209 washovers being formed in various types of dune morphology and 303 being obliterated. The number of washovers was relatively stable from 1947 to 1972, and increased dramatically between 1972 and 1976 probably as a result of the development of immature inlet margins and downdrift starvation. From 1976 to 2001, washover occurrences declined and their spatial dimensions decreased, leading to a decrease in overwash activity over this time. Overall, the dominant formation mechanisms of washovers in the Ria Formosa were inlet dynamics (accounting for 57% of washovers formed) and structural erosion (20%), with human intervention mechanisms accounting for 12%. The cessation of washovers was dominated by dune development (33% of the washovers obliterated) followed by inlet dynamics (24%) and structural erosion (19%), while human intervention mechanisms accounted for 13%. The classification should be of use for the coastal management of barrier systems including the definition of overwash-prone areas and the determination of the relative importance of the mechanisms contributing to washover formation and cessation.     

Seismic stratigraphy of Lago Puyehue (Chilean Lake District): new views on its deglacial and Holocene evolution

Prior to the collection of a series of sediment cores, a high- and very-high-resolution reflection seismic survey was carried out on Lago Puyehue, Lake District, South-Central Chile. The data reveal a complex bathymetry and basin structure, with three sub-basins separated by bathymetric ridges, bedrock islands and interconnected channels. The sedimentary infill reaches a thickness of >200 m. It can be sub-divided into five seismic-stratigraphic units, which are interpreted as: moraine, ice-contact or outwash deposits (Unit I), glacio-lacustrine sediments rapidly deposited in a proglacial or subglacial lake at the onset of deglaciation (Unit II), lacustrine fan deposits fed by sediment-laden meltwater streams in a proglacial lake (Unit III), distal deposits of fluvially derived sediment in an open, post-glacial lake (Unit IV) and authigenic lacustrine sediments, predominantly of biogenic origin, that accumulated in an open, post-glacial lake (Unit V). This facies succession is very similar to that observed in other glacial lakes, and minor differences are attributed to an overall higher depositional energy and higher terrigenous input caused by the strong seismic and volcanic activity in the region combined with heavy precipitation. A long sediment core (PU-II core) penetrates part of Unit V and its base is dated as 17,915 cal. yr. BP. Extrapolation of average sedimentation rates yields an age of ca. 24,750 cal. yr. BP for the base of Unit V, and of ca. 28,000 cal. yr. BP for the base of Unit IV or for the onset of open-water conditions. This is in contrast with previous glacial-history reconstructions based on terrestrial records, which date the complete deglaciation of the basin as ca. 14,600 cal. yr. BP. This discrepancy cannot be easily explained and highlights the need for more lacustrine records from this region. This is the second in a series of eight papers published in this special issue dedicated to the 17,900 year multi-proxy lacustrine record of Lago Puyehue, Chilean Lake District. The papers in this special issue were collected by M. De Batist, N. Fagel, M.-F. Loutre and E. Chapron.     

The reflection seismic survey of project TIPTEQ—the inventory of the Chilean subduction zone at 38.2° S

We describe results of an active-source seismology experiment across the Chilean subduction zone at 38.2°S. The seismic sections clearly show the subducted Nazca plate with varying reflectivity. Below the coast the plate interface occurs at 25 km depth as the sharp lower boundary of a 2–5 km thick, highly reflective region, which we interpret as the subduction channel, that is, a zone of subducted material with a velocity gradient with respect to the upper and lower plate. Further downdip along the seismogenic coupling zone the reflectivity decreases in the area of the presumed 1960 Valdivia hypocentre. The plate interface itself can be traced further down to depths of 50–60 km below the Central Valley. We observe strong reflectivity at the plate interface as well as in the continental mantle wedge. The sections also show a segmented forearc crust in the overriding South American plate. Major features in the accretionary wedge, such as the Lanalhue fault zone, can be identified. At the eastern end of the profile a bright west-dipping reflector lies perpendicular to the plate interface and may be linked to the volcanic arc.     

Crustal thickness estimation beneath the southern central Andes at 30°S and 36°S from S wave receiver function analysis

We have used the S wave receiver function (SRF) technique to investigate the crustal thickness beneath two seismic profiles from the CHARGE project in the southern central Andes. A previous study employing the P wave receiver function method has observed the Moho interface beneath much of the profiles. They found, however, that the amplitude of the P to S conversion was diminished in the western part of the profiles and have attributed it to a reduction of the impedance contrast at the Moho due to lower crustal ecologitization. With SRF, we have successfully detected S to P converted waves from the Moho as well as possible conversions from other lithospheric boundaries. The continental South American crust reaches its maximum thickness of ∼70 km (along 30°S between 70°W and 68.5°W) beneath the Principal Cordillera and the Famatina system and becomes thinner towards the Sierras Pampeanas with a thickness of ∼40 km. Negative phases, possibly related to the base of the continental and oceanic lithosphere, can be recognized in the summation traces at different depths. By comparing our results with data obtained from previous investigations, we are able to further constrain the thickness of the crust and lithosphere beneath the central Andes.     

Evolution processes of Ordovician–Devonian arc system in the South‐Kitakami Massif and its relevance to the Ordovician ophiolite pulse

The South Kitakami Massif is one of the oldest geological domains in Japan having Silurian strata with acidic pyroclastic rocks and Ordovician–Silurian granodiorite–tonalite basement, suggesting that it was matured enough to develop acidic volcanisms in the Silurian period. On the northern and western margin of the South Kitakami Massif, an Ordovician arc ophiolite (Hayachine–Miyamori Ophiolite) and high‐pressure and low‐temperature metamorphic rocks (Motai metamorphic rocks) exhumed sometime in the Ordovician–Devonian periods are distributed. Chronological, geological, and petrochemical studies on the Hayachine–Miyamori Ophiolite, Motai metamorphic rocks, and other early Paleozoic geological units of the South Kitakami Massif are reviewed for reconstruction of the South Kitakami arc system during Ordovician to Devonian times with supplementary new data. The reconstruction suggests a change in the convergence polarity from eastward‐ to westward‐dipping subduction sometime before the Late Devonian period. The Hayachine–Miyamori Ophiolite was developed above the eastward‐dipping subduction through three distinctive stages. Two separate stages of overriding plate extension inducing decompressional melting with minor involvement of slab‐derived fluid occurred before and after a stage of melting under strong influence of slab‐derived fluids. The first overriding plate extension took place in the back‐arc side forming a back‐arc basin. The second one took place immediately before the ophiolite exhumation and near the fore‐arc region. We postulate that the second decompressional melting was triggered by slab breakoff, which was preceded by slab rollback inducing trench‐parallel wedge mantle flow and non‐steady fluid and heat transport leaving exceptionally hydrous residual mantle. The formation history of the Hayachine–Miyamori Ophiolite implies that weaker plate coupling may provide preferential conditions for exhumation of very hydrous mantle. Very hydrous peridotites involved in arc magmatism have not yet been discovered except for in the Cambrian–Ordovician periods, suggesting its implications for global geodynamics, such as the thermal state and water circulation in the mantle.     

Optical dating of St. Lawrence Iroquoian ceramics from the Mailhot-Curran site,southern Québec

Infrared-stimulated luminescence dating (IRSL) was applied on pottery sherds from the Mailhot-Curran archaeological site (BgFn-2), a Late Woodland period village located in the Saint-Anicet region, southern Québec (Canada). This site witnessed the presence of St. Lawrence Iroquoians and is thought to have been occupied roughly 500 years ago. The main goal of this study is to chronologically constrain the occupation of this site in order to establish a fine chronological sequence for the occupations of various sites found in this area. The IRSL is used to complement previous dating methods used for Mailhot-Curran (radiocarbon and seriation of the archaeological remains).Dating results are reported for ten samples of local ceramics made from Quaternary Champlain Sea clay. Luminescence dating on fine grains was preferentially used, since feldspar luminescence typically emit a decent luminescence signal. Although the latter was rather dim, anomalous fading was measured and luminescence ages were successfully corrected. It is therefore possible to validate the occupation age of this site.