MODIS数据的水浇地提取

水浇地是土地覆盖分类系统中的一个重要类型, 依据水分亏缺指数(WDI)与土壤水分的相关性, 计算了监测时间内WDI的变化情况, 用降雨资料去除了由于降雨引起的WDI的变化, 进而提取了研究区的水浇地分布。结果表明：(1)提取出的水浇地在数量上与统计资料相比, 除山西省偏差相对较大外, 其余各省偏差均小于7%, 提取出的结果与统计资料具有可比性。(2)提取出的水浇地在空间上多成片出现在河流、湖泊、水库附近、灌区和绿洲上, 与已知的水浇地集中区一致。(3)利用TM影像对提取结果进行了初步判断, 其中山西省的正确率较低, 只有64%, 其余各省正确率均在70%以上, 新疆的正确率最高为92%。     

基于主成分分析的ENVISAT ASAR数据在福建省漳州市香蕉园地提取中的应用(英文)

Banana is one of the main economic agrotypes in Zhangzhou, Fujian Province. The multi-temporal ENVISAT ASAR data with different polarization are used to classify the banana fields in this paper. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied for six pairs of ASAR dual-polarization data. For its large leaves, banana has high backscatter. So the value of banana fields is high and shows very bright in the 1st component, which makes it much easier for banana fields extraction. Dual-polarization data provide more information, and the VV and VH backscatter of banana show different characters with other land covers. Based on the analysis of the radar signature of banana fields and other land covers and the 1st component, banana fields are classified using object-oriented classifier. Compared to the field survey data and ASTER data, the accuracy of banana fields in the study area is 83.5%. It shows that the principal component analysis provides the useful information in SAR images analysis and makes the extraction of banana fields easier. Supported by the Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University (NCET-05-0573), Fujian Science and Technology Project (No.2006I0018), the Science Project of the Education Department of Fujian Province(No. 2006F5022).     

Numerical prediction of MODUs drift during Hurricane Katrina

Severe hurricanes, such as Katrina, broke the mooring lines of a number of mobile offshore drilling units (MODU) deployed in the Gulf of Mexico and some of those MODUs went adrift. A drifting MODU may damage other critical elements of the offshore oil and gas infrastructure by colliding with floating or fixed production systems and transportation hubs, or by rupturing pipelines owing to their dragging anchors over the seabed. To avoid or mitigate the damage caused by a drifting MODU, it is desirable to understand the mechanics of the drift of a MODU under the impact of severe wind, wave and current and have the capability of predicting the trajectory of the drift. To explore the feasibility and accuracy of predicting the trajectory of a drifting MODU based on hindcast met-ocean conditions and limited knowledge of the condition of the drifting MODU, this study employed a simplified equation describing only the horizontal (surge, sway and yaw) motions of a MODU under the impact of steady wind, current and wave forces. The simplified hydrodynamic model neglects the first- and second-order oscillatory wave forces, unsteady wind forces (owing to wind gustiness), wave drift damping, and the effects of the body oscillation on the steady wind and current forces. It was assumed that the net effects of the oscillatory forces on the steady motion are insignificant. To verify the accuracy and feasibility of our simplified approach, the predicted drifting trajectories of two MODUs were compared with the corresponding measurements recorded by the global positioning system (GPS).     

Comparison of flow patterns in the near wake of a circular cylinder and a square cylinder placed near a plane wall

The flow patterns in the near wake of a cylinder (either circular or square in shape, D=25 mm) placed in the proximity of a fully developed turbulent boundary layer (thickness δ=0.4D) are investigated experimentally using particle image velocimetry (PIV). The effects of changing the gap height (S) between the cylinder bottom and the wall surface, over the gap ratio range S/D=0.1–1.0, have been investigated. The results show that both the ensemble-averaged and instantaneous flow fields are strongly dependent on S/D. The flow patterns for the two types of cylinders share many similarities with respect to the change in S/D, such as the reduced recirculation length and increased velocity fluctuation in the near wake with increasing S/D, as well as the trend of suppression of vortex shedding at small S/D and onset of vortex shedding at large S/D. However, developments of the shear layers, in terms of wake width, flow curvature, etc., are considerably different for these two types of cylinders. In general, the wake development and momentum exchange for the square cylinder are slower those for the circular cylinder at the same gap ratio. Correspondingly, it is shown that the periodic vortex shedding is delayed and weakened in the case of square cylinder, as compared to that of the circular cylinder at the same S/D.     

Historical tsunami in the Makran Subduction Zone off the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan and results of numerical modeling

Tsunami hazard in the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ), off the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan, was studied by numerical modeling of historical tsunami in this region. Although the MSZ triggered the second deadliest tsunami in the Indian Ocean, among those known, the tsunami hazard in this region has yet to be analyzed in detail. This paper reports the results of a risk analysis using five scenario events based on the historic records, and identifies a seismic gap area in western Makran off the southern coast of Iran. This is a possible site for a future large earthquake and tsunami. In addition, we performed numerical modeling to explain some ambiguities in the historical reports. Based on the modeling results, we conclude that either the extreme run-up of 12–15 m assigned for the 1945 Makran tsunami in the historical record was produced by a submarine landslide triggered by the parent earthquake, or that these reports are exaggerated. The other possibility could be the generation of the huge run-up heights by large displacements on splay faults. The results of run-up modeling reveal that a large earthquake and tsunami in the MSZ is capable of producing considerable run-up heights in the far field. Therefore, it is possible that the MSZ was the source of the tsunami encountered by a Portuguese fleet in Dabhul in 1524.     

Wind impact on pollutant transport in a shallow estuary

A three-dimensional numerical model, EFDC （ environmental fluid dynamics code） is applied to the Pamlico River Estuary （PRE） in eastern North Carolina of the United States to examine the wind impact on pollutant age distributions and residence time. A series of model experiments representing base case, remote-wind-induced water level set-up and local winds cases are conducted. Model results indicate that the pollutant mean age and the system residence time are functions of gravitational circulation in the PRE. The system responses to remote-wind-induced water level set-up are different in different portions of the PRE. Under such condition, dissolved substances in the upstream portion of the PRE have a younger age and shorter residence time （compared with the base case） , by contrast, they have a older age and longer residence time in the downstream portion of the PRE. Upriver and downriver local winds appear to have opposite impacts on pollutant age distributions. The substances are retained much longer within the PRE under upriver wind than those under downriver wind. The model results also suggest that across - river winds may lead to longer residence time through enhanced turbulence mixing, which slows down the gravitational circulation in the PRE.     

Statistical analysis and forecasts of long-term sandbank evolution at Great Yarmouth, UK

A data-driven model has been developed to analyse the long-term evolution of a sandbank system and to make ensemble predictions in a period of 8 years. The method uses a combination of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, (to define spatial and temporal patterns of variability), jack-knife resampling, (to generate an ensemble of EOFs), a causal auto-regression technique, (to extrapolate the temporal eigenfunctions), and straightforward statistical analysis of the resulting ensemble of predictions to determine a ‘forecast’ and associated uncertainty. The methodology has been applied to a very demanding site which includes a curved shoreline and a group of mobile nearshore sandbanks. The site is on the eastern coast of the UK and includes the Great Yarmouth sandbanks and neighbouring shoreline. A sequence of 33 high quality historical survey charts reaching back to 1848 have been used to analyse the patterns and to predict morphological evolution of the sandbank system. The forecasts demonstrate an improved skill relative to an assumption of persistence, but suffer in locations where there are propagating features in the morphology that are not well-described by EOFs.     

Changes in the abundance and composition of picophytoplankton in relation to the occurrence of a Kyucho and a bottom intrusion in the Bungo Channel,Japan

The Bungo Channel in southwestern Japan receives both warm, called Kyucho, and cold deep-water intrusions (bottom intrusion) from the Pacific Ocean. Abundances of Prochlorococcus, Synechococcus, and eukaryotic picophytoplankton were monitored from 18 July to 17 August 2001 to clarify whether advected picophytoplankton from the Pacific Ocean can grow in the channel or not. Synechococcus cells were further discriminated into low- and high-PUB types according to their fluorescence property in flow cytometry. From 18 to 25 July, the water temperature decreased by 3 °C at a 5-m depth at all stations, indicating the occurrence of a bottom intrusion. From 25 July to 4 August, a Kyucho occurred and the water temperature rapidly increased. From 4 to 17 August, a bottom intrusion and a Kyucho both occurred twice, although the intensities were smaller than those occurring until 4 August. From 18 to 30 July, the abundance of both Prochlorococcus and a high-PUB type of Synechococcus drastically decreased because of a bottom intrusion; however, the abundances rapidly increased due to the advection by a Kyucho. These advected cells increased from 4 to 17 August in the channel and Kitanada Bay. Changes in the abundance of low-PUB type of Synechococcus and eukaryotic picophytoplankton were less noticeable than those in the abundance of Prochlorococcus and high-PUB type. The present study demonstrated that oceanic picophytoplankton advected by the Kyucho could grow in the channel. However, abundances of low-PUB type and eukaryotic picophytoplankton increased higher than those of Prochlorococcus and high-PUB type did. Thus, these oceanic phytoplankters will be excluded when Kyucho does not occur for a long time. The co-occurrence of various types of picophytoplankton found in the channel is probably achieved by both Kyucho event and their growth capability in the channel.     

Assessing New England's waterborne energy imports (1995–2004)

This paper tests four hypotheses relating to the waterborne commerce of New England's imported energy, by port of entry, from 1995 through 2004. It concludes that the region's ports engaged in this fossil fuel traffic are part of a hierarchical system of large, medium, and small ports; that such energy flows have increased over the study period; that localized demand for energy is the principal component leading to growth; and that regional inter-port competition was not stable.     

Compliance costs and the small fisher: A study of exiters from the New Zealand fishery

Over 3000 predominantly small-scale fishers have exited the New Zealand's quota management system (QMS) between its inception in 1986 and 2000. This study, based on the Ministry of Fisheries database and a questionnaire sent to the exiters, establishes that compliance costs in general, and those specifically related to the QMS, were one of the most consistent reasons for exit. Uncertainty about future QMS policy and the high cost of quota were also significant factors. It appears that the small fishers’ perception of high compliance cost can be supported by industry data.