中蒙俄经济走廊土地利用变化格局及其驱动因素研究

中蒙俄经济走廊战略地位显著,研究其土地利用格局变化与机理,对亚欧大陆复杂巨系统的生态环境保护和社会经济可持续发展意义重大。本文基于全球土地覆盖遥感数据和实地考察,对自苏联解体及蒙古私有化以来的1992—2019年,中蒙俄经济走廊土地利用格局及其驱动因素和时空变化规律进行了研究。结果表明：①1992—2019年,中蒙俄经济走廊土地利用变化活跃,土地转换面积为361954 km²,主要表现为林地持续下降,建设用地、耕地面积迅速扩张。② 中国部分的林地呈现先减后增的趋势,2000年后东北平原北部林地增加显著,灌丛与草地、裸地分别净减少13325 km²、16632km²;蒙古国部分的林地、灌丛与草地均呈现先减后增的趋势,而裸地面积先增后减,苏赫巴托尔省、肯特省、东戈壁省和戈壁苏木贝尔省四省交界地带裸地增加明显;俄罗斯部分的林地持续下降,共减少46742 km²,耕地面积增加8478 km²,贝加尔湖周边裸地增加41417 km²;俄蒙边境、色楞格河流域以及中蒙俄铁路沿线地区存在沙漠化风险。③ 人口、经济、产业结构以及政策等是中蒙俄经济走廊土地利用变化的主要因素。2010—2018年,人口密度对转为林地的土地影响最大,其解释力q值为0.2597,GDP总量对转为建设用地、裸地、耕地的影响最大,其解释力q值分别为0.9094、0.2234、0.5518。就三国而言,中国部分主要受人口和经济因素以及退耕还林政策的影响,而蒙古国部分则受私有化后超载过牧及开垦耕地的影响,俄罗斯部分主要是砍伐林地和开垦耕地的影响。本研究结果旨在为中蒙俄经济走廊土地资源可持续利用和管理提供科学依据。     

基于价值链分工的跨国生物医药企业在华布局模式

从企业微观视角,深入分析了全球前30强生物医药企业的价值链不同环节在华布局特征及各环节间的空间分工模式。研究结果表明:(1)从整体上看,绝大多数企业集中在长三角、京津冀和珠三角三大区域,其中总部和研发中心都集中在北京和上海,制造基地则散布在三大经济区内。(2)从区域内部价值链分工看,长三角、京津冀的价值链分工体系较为成熟,珠三角仍处于利用其成本优势吸引制造基地布局阶段。(3)在华跨国生物医药企业内部"研发中心"与"制造基地"的分工存在跨区域、同区域跨城市和城市内部3种模式,在华投资的路径可以分为"先制造后总部研发"的制造先行模式和"先总部后制造研发"的总部先行模式。     

全球变化下跨境水资源理论与方法研究展望

全球变化影响下,水危机位列未来10年世界风险之首,以国际河流区的跨境水纠纷及其导致的地缘战略竞争最受关注。科学调控跨境水安全,保障国家水权益,面临诸多科学与技术难题。回顾了国际河流水安全与水权益保障的研究进展,判识了存在的问题及面临的挑战。围绕创建全球变化下跨境水资源利益共享理论与方法体系研究目标,提出了需要解决的关键科学问题、技术瓶颈和创新思路;设置了主要研究目标与内容、总体方案与技术路线。这些研究,将推进国际河流水科学研究发展,提升全球变化下中国管控跨境水安全风险、保障国家水权益的科技支撑能力。     

China’s changing economy and emissions trajectory: following global trends

A key climate policy issue and debate is the future trajectory of emissions of carbon dioxide of countries, their peaking dates, and rates of decline after peaking. This article analyses China’s emissions trajectory in terms of global historical trends distinguishing between industry, infrastructure, and urbanization. Growth of emissions from industrialization and infrastructure development has stabilized in 2014 with saturation levels being reached, while the process of urbanization continues with the shift of the economy to the services sector, with reduced energy use, and this is a global trend. The future trajectory of emissions will be shaped largely by growth of transport and building-related services which directly impact on and are shaped by middle-class levels of well-being. These are areas where convergence with levels of services in other urbanized countries is an important element of national policy. This global trend has not been adequately taken into account in modelling and macroeconomic analysis which ignore social processes. The article concludes that China’s 13th Five Year Plan (2016–2020) seeks to achieve a ‘moderately well-off society’ while putting a cap on total energy demand by modifying the drivers of consumption emissions compared with countries that urbanized earlier. The adoption of a public policy priority of dense mixed-use urban form, public transport, energy efficiency to enable energy system reform, and digital economy could be a model for others.

Policy relevance

The article redefines climate change in terms of social processes as urban form and notions of well-being lock-in increasing levels of future emissions of carbon dioxide. There are implications for research in assessing how best drivers of emissions can be modified without affecting well-being, including renewable and digital technologies and human behaviours that drive patterns of natural resource use as well as the identification of leverage points. There are also broader implications for replacing the development cooperation model of global climate governance to focus on new values recognizing interdependencies for sharing responsibility as well as prosperity.     

The cost of achieving South Africa’s ‘fair share’ of global climate change mitigation

Global climate change mitigation action is hampered by systematic under-assessment of national ‘fair shares’, largely on the basis of perceived national interests. This paper aims to inform discussions centred on South Africa’s nationally determined contribution (NDC) by estimating (1) emissions reduction pathways for the country using the Climate Equity Reference Calculator (CERC) assuming a maximum 2°C aggregate warming target and (2) the likely economy-wide net mitigation costs or savings associated with reaching these pathways if known lower-cost mitigation measures, identified through the national mitigation potential analysis, are prioritised. The cumulative net savings associated with achieving the CERC ‘fair share’ emissions pathway, assuming the moderate use of low carbon power generation measures, would reach $5.3 billion by 2030. Net savings could be substantially greater reaching $46.8 billion by 2030 assuming power generation focuses on moving towards full decarbonisation. An unconditional commitment to the mitigation action implied by the ‘fair share’ emissions pathway therefore seems reasonable and prudent purely from the point of view of net country-wide savings. Only if power generation moves towards full decarbonisation would there be a reasonable chance of achieving the more ambitious CERC domestic emissions pathway. However, the significant additional cost associated with achieving the domestic emissions pathway should be conditional on international assistance.

Key policy insights

• South Africa can only achieve its ‘fair share’ of the global mitigation effort if greater use is made of renewable energy options, and can realise significant net savings if it does so.

• Further emissions reductions would incur costs and require significant upscaling of the share of renewable energy and full implementation of all non-power generation mitigation measures available.

• Committing to this further mitigation action contingent on international finance would both strengthen the nation’s position in climate negotiations and support the provision of finance for those vulnerable developing nations that bear little or no responsibility for climate change.

     

A Comparison of the International Charters on Geographical Education

This article uses discourse analysis techniques associated with Foucauldian archaeology to examine the two international charters developed by the International Geographical Union Commission on Geographical Education (IGU-CGE), the original one in 1992 and the revised version endorsed in 2016 at the Beijing conference. The examination considers the consultation and development processes before outlining similarities and differences in the messages communicated and how discourses have changed through time. The article concludes with recommendations for the geography education community for the future.     

国际组织时空数据模型的设计与实现

分析了构建国际组织时空数据模型的意义,总结了国际组织数据的时空特征,比较了几种有代表性的时空数据模型的特点及缺陷,对基态修正模型进行扩展和改进,设计了国际组织时空数据模型。在此基础上,设计了国际组织时空数据库,并给出实例。     

地理科学的中国进展与国际趋势

中国地理学取得了骄人的进展,表现在科研方向的突破、对国家建设的贡献、研究手段的革新、对科学和教育的贡献、对社会的贡献等方面。但当前中国也存在基础研究薄弱、学科整合不足、学术走向迷茫、竞争能力堪忧、全球视野欠缺、地理教育错位等问题。国际地理学对科学界所确定的关键研究问题表示出更大的关注,科学界也将更加了解地理学及其视角能对科学知识做出的贡献。地理学所关切的科学问题直指今天决策者的紧迫需求。地理学家以多种方式对解决实际问题做出贡献。国际地理学的发展聚焦在：揭示复杂系统中的不平衡和动态,认识全球化 (包括环境、经济、人口、政府和文化等)的潮流及其影响,建立从地方到全球的空间连续系列研究,利用包括时间系列数据在内的纵向数据进行过程比较研究,加强地理学理论、技术和研究成果对决策的影响,加强地理教育,包括努力提高公众的地理学能力,改进高等院校地理学家的训练,提高地理理解力,加强地理组织机构。     

国际地震研究发展态势文献计量分析

以ISI Web of Science论文数据库为数据源,采用美国汤姆森科技信息集团开发的专业数据分析工具TDA(Thomson Data Analyzer)对1900年至2010年(数据入库时间至2010年)国际地震研究发展特点及其现状予以分析。结果显示:国际地震研究持续增长,特别是近20年,增速显著;美国在该领域居于引领优势;政府科研机构、国立科研机构和公共研究机构是该领域研究的主导力量;国际地震研究主要集中于地震机理及成因、地震监测、地震影响及效应等方向;中国虽然已经步入地震研究的主要国家行列,但影响十分有限。     

国际地磁台网发展现状与展望

从国际地磁台站分布、地磁信息节点分布、地磁观测技术指标、数据产品及服务应用等5个方面介绍了国际地磁台网的发展现状。通过综合分析,得出地磁场和空间环境的全球性精细化监测及预报已经成为地球科学家关注的焦点。在此基础上,从4个方面预测了国际地磁台网未来发展趋势,以期为我国开展相关工作提供参考和借鉴。