地缘安全视角下的中国国际河流水资源开发利用

全球地缘政治竞争回潮与资源环境危机推动国际河流水资源开发利用成为影响国家地缘安全的关键变量。通过对既有文献的梳理,发现国际河流水资源开发利用在“稀缺-冲突”范式下激化流域各国的矛盾,引发的水资源冲突联合域外势力进一步作用于国家地缘安全;在地缘安全视角下,中国国际河流的水资源开发利用经历了从“弱安全化”到“强安全化”再到“去安全化”的演进;水环境治理、水量分配及水开发利益协调是水资源开发利用中的核心议题,涉及的跨境水资源污染、水权分配以及水电开发争议等问题与国家地缘安全密切相关;东北、西北及西南三大国际河流密集区水资源开发利用方式地域分异明显,在差异化的地缘环境下带来多元的地缘安全威胁;最后基于“一带一路”及“人类命运共同体”等背景对中国未来外交提出建议。     

COVID-19期间国家关系交互网络时空分析研究

COVID-19疫情不断蔓延为国际政治、外交关系等带来深刻影响。目前基于复杂网络方法的国际关系研究较少考虑节点的空间属性,难以探索国际关系的动态演化模式及其空间分布特征。该文提出一种结合时间序列聚类与空间统计的国家关系交互网络演化模式探测方法。基于2020年1月-2021年3月的GDELT数据构建国家关系交互网络,基于节点的演化特征,应用K-means聚类算法将节点划分为6种类型,结合局部连接统计方法分析节点演化模式的空间分布特征。研究表明:面对疫情冲击,各国为控制疫情蔓延倾向于参与合作交互事件;国家关系交互网络中的不同时序演化模式总体按照节点的点度中心性强度由高到低分布;疫情防控期间网络中始终处于边缘地位的节点在空间分布上呈现聚集特征,而核心节点空间分布较分散。通过研究网络节点的时序演化模式及空间分布特征可为公共卫生危机事件期间国际关系与地缘政治研究提供新思路,对于危机事件期间制定外交政策与应对策略具有一定参考价值。     

Adaptation financing in a global agreement: is the adaptation levy appropriate?

The climate negotiations recognize that adequate and additional funds are needed to assist adaptation in developing countries. This article analyses whether a future 2% or any higher adaptation levy (AL) can achieve this, whether it causes – as it is a tax on the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) – a significant excess burden, and how it alters the relation between adaptation financing and mitigation. While former studies have focused on single AL levels, this article determines the transfers from the CDM and the AL for a range of emission reduction targets and AL levels with a partial equilibrium model based on marginal abatement cost estimates for 2020. Revenues from a 2% AL are negligible and remain inadequate for ambitious emission reductions and an AL that maximizes transfers (e.g. US$15 billion for 30% reduction target). Revenues are mostly subtracted from CDM transfers, so little additional funds are raised (e.g. less than $2.4 billion for 30% reduction target). Adaptation financing increases disproportionally with more stringent reduction targets for a rising levy, and the share of Annex I country expenditures devoted to transfers increases slightly. Both effects are only small. The excess burden is larger than 85% of the additional funds.

Policy relevance

Financing adaptation in developing countries has become a cornerstone of a global climate agreement. The mechanism for raising additional funds has not yet been determined. This article assesses the potential of upscaling one option that is already in place under the Kyoto Protocol: the 2% AL on the CDM. It is estimated that even a much higher AL does not generate substantial additional funds, mainly redistributes transfers within non-Annex I countries, does so at social costs in the same order of magnitude as additional funds, and increases the share of Annex I country expenditures devoted to transfers. It is unwise to link mitigation and adaptation as CDM and AL jointly do, since this taxes a beneficial activity. Financial instruments with transfers that decrease with or are independent from climate protection would be preferable.     

Drivers of national climate policy

Patterns of national climate policy performance and their implications for the geopolitics of climate change are examined. An overview of levels of emissions performance across countries is first provided. Substantial changes in emissions trends over time are documented, notably with GHG emissions trajectories, which are shaped less and less by the developed/developing country divide. Various patterns of policy convergence and divergence in the types of policies states implement are then surveyed. Four broad types of explanation that may account for these trends are then explored: (1) variation in the institutional form of country-level governance regimes, (2) patterns of dependence on fossil fuel energy, (3) broad systemic differences among states (specifically in their population densities, carbon intensity, and per capita incomes, and (4) variations in the traditions of economic intervention by states. The article contributes to the growing body of work on comparative climate policy, and provides a first attempt at exploring the comparative politics of instrument choice. The analysis challenges the continued importance of a North–South divide for the future of climate policy, thus reinforcing a sense of the ‘new geopolitics’ of climate change. Some of the implications of the analysis for debates about the form of future international agreement on mitigation policy are also explored.

Policy relevance

The article contributes to the understanding of the variety of institutional conditions under which policy makers develop policy and thus the constraints and opportunities for the design of international agreements under these conditions.     

The role of non-nation-state actors and side events in the international climate negotiations

United Nations climate change conferences have attracted an increasing number and range of observer participants, often outnumbering national delegates. The interactions between the formal and informal spaces of climate governance at the Conference of the Parties (COP) are explored by investigating why non-nation state actors (NNSAs) attend them and by measuring to what extent official UN Side Events provide relevant information for the formal negotiations. Based on primary empirical research at recent COPs, it is found that 60–75% of Side Events have related directly to items under negotiation in the post-2012 climate negotiations. In this regard, Side Events that facilitate informal exchange between stakeholders not only provide input into the negotiations but also allow issues beyond the realm of the negotiations to be discussed, reflecting the scope of climate change. Although Side Events are an effective forum to exchange ideas and network, their current format and purpose as being events ‘on the side’ does not offer a sufficient framework for coordination between the work of NNSAs and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process.     

Why has China not embraced a global cap-and-trade regime?

Although many economic studies suggest that China would reap significant benefits from participating in a global cap-and-trade regime, China has consistently refused to participate in international negotiations on this issue. Understanding China's underlying concerns is a key to explaining why China has not embraced an international greenhouse gas emissions trading scheme. This is explored as a potential basis for including China in future negotiations and schemes. This issue is considered from the following perspectives that impact upon China: (a) fairness: how do developing countries perceive emissions caps? (b) why have China and India been sceptical about international emissions trading? (c) what would China's political perceptions be of an inflow of CDM investment in comparison with the exports of emissions permits to the USA? (d) what are the implications of ‘lock in’ to an emissions cap, particularly when no rules and principles exist for setting emissions targets for post-2012? (e) the complex question of establishing future emissions caps for developing countries.     

Kyoto flexibility mechanisms in EU accession countries: will they make a difference?

What potential effect do flexible mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol have on energy efficiency, fuel switching and the development of renewable energy sources for the eight post-communist EU Member States that accessed in 2004? These countries are chief candidates for hosting Joint Implementation (JI) projects and for participating in international emission trading, which may assist the implementation and financing of projects in these target areas. The potentials and barriers to Joint Implementation are reviewed, as well as the conditions under which international emission trading can influence the energy use of the selling country. Different strategies adopted by the host countries towards the application of these instruments, and their impact on sustainable energy development, are examined. The article concludes that the Kyoto flexibility mechanisms may play a positive, but rather limited, role in the sustainable energy development of the region, but the barriers to Joint Implementation may shift the emphasis towards transactions under the framework of international emission trading. If innovative mechanisms are tied to sustainable development goals, this may mobilize the energyefficiency potentials of these countries. An attractive opportunity exists to achieve energy efficiency and emission reductions, utilizing the revenues from allowance sales through ‘green investment’ schemes.     

紫贻贝养殖产业的现状、问题与对策

为全面系统地了解中国紫贻贝(Mytilus galloprovincialis)养殖产业情况,作者从养殖产量、养殖面积、进出口贸易、养殖生产等方面概述了紫贻贝产业现状,对中国紫贻贝养殖业的种质资源、苗种生产方式、养殖生产流程、养殖方式等进行了综述,并针对紫贻贝养殖中存在的问题,从种质资源、养殖模式、设施设备、食品安全控...     

International Telephone Calls: Global and Regional Patterns

This study examines patterns in international telephone communications, documenting a close relationship between international call volume aggregated by nation and indicators of global connectivity including volume of international trade, tourism and migration. In addition, the analysis documents the existence of a set of national "communities" of callers. The clear orientation of large portions of the world to former colonial powers (e.g., West Africa and North Africa to France), and the separation of the Muslim Middle East and the Chinese-speaking nations of East and Southeast Asia from other calling communities suggest the importance of continuing historic and cultural influences on information flows.     

Geopolitical Legacies and Central European Export Linkages: A Historical and Gravity Model Analysis of Hungary

This paper analyzes Hungary's export linkages of the interwar and Cold War periods using gravity model and historical analyses. Hungary is a useful example of former Soviet satellites because it combines relative political stability (since 1956) and experimentation with the New Economic Mechanism (NEM) during the 1970s and 1980s. Historical analysis reveals seven events since World War I that changed Hungary's trade patterns. Gravity model analysis for 1955, 1965, 1975, and 1985 shows the dramatic cleavage of the “Iron Curtain,” the effect of the NEM, and particularly strong and weak linkages for Hungarian trade that may result from historical legacies, complementarity, or specific political contacts.