~(40)Ar/~(39)Ar dating of shear deformation of the Xianshuihe fault zone in west Sichuan and its tectonic significance

TheNW-SEstrikingXianshuihefaultzoneslicesthesoutheasternTibetanPlateauandconnectssoutheastwardwiththeAnninghe-Zemuhe-Xiaojiangfaultzone,whichformahuge,activesinistralstrike-slipfaultzone(fig.1).ThisfaultzoneisanimportantseismicfaultineastTibet[1-5].EarthquakegeologystudiesandoffsetpatternsofyounggeologicalfeatureshaveshownthatlateQuaternarysinistralsliprateoftheXianshuihefaultzonereaches13mm/a[1,2].TheXianshuhefaultzoneconsistsoftwomainbranches,theDaofufaultbranchinthewestandtheXianshuih…     

长江中下游旱涝中期预报方法及其业务应用

介绍了双层多因子综合相似的长江中下游旱涝中期预报模型。该模型引入了具有明确动力学和热力学意义的地转西风动量经向输送和经向温度梯度诊断量，同时强调了西太平洋副热带高压对长江中下游夏季降水的关键作用，并考虑了对流层中、低层500hPa高度和850hPa温度的大尺度环流背景场。与过去业务应用的单层相似预报模型相比较，不仅物理意义和天气学含义明确，而且更符合对具有复杂动力和热力机制的降水预报的考虑。5年的预报试验和业务应用结果表明，该方法对长江中下游地区旱涝的中期趋势预报有较好的预报能力。     

沈阳近百年的温度变化特征及其环流形势分析

沈阳地处全球温度变化的敏感带，在近百年的温度观测记录中，沈阳的温度变化呈逐渐上升之势，近百年增高约1．7℃，这种上升趋势在冬季远比夏季明显。沈阳的年平均温度变化有一个12a的周期，各周期温度基本呈阶梯状上升，20世纪末的周期冬季平均温度比世纪初的周期升温2．8℃左右。从近50a的极端温度的变化趋势来看，极端最低温度明显升高，而极端最高温度并没有上升，变化趋势甚至略下降，以致冬、夏两季温差缩小。从沈阳的最低平均温度和最高平均温度变化来看，两者均随时间逐渐升高，说明沈阳市的增温不仅是最低温度升高造成的，最高温度的增温作用亦十分重要。从冬季环流形势分析来看，东亚大槽及其后弱脊和地面蒙古高压在上世纪80年代、90年代明显减弱，使得冷空气向南侵袭的径向气流减弱，是导致位于冷空气通道中的沈阳冬季增温明显的原因之一。     

Assessing land use/cover changes: a nationwide multidate spatial database for Mexico

A nationwide multidate GIS database was generated in order to carry out the quantification and spatial characterization of land use/cover changes (LUCC) in Mexico. Existing cartography on land use/cover at a 1:250,000 scale was revised to select compatible inputs regarding the scale, the classification scheme and the mapping method. Digital maps from three different dates (the late 1970s, 1993 and 2000) were revised, evaluated, corrected and integrated into a GIS database. In order to improve the reliability of the database, an attempt was made to assess the accuracy of the digitalisation procedure and to detect and correct unlikely changes due to thematic errors in the maps. Digital maps were overlaid in order to generate LUCC maps, transition matrices and to calculate rates of conversion. Based upon this database, rates of deforestation between 1976 and 2000 were evaluated as 0.25 and 0.76% per year for temperate and tropical forests, respectively.     

列车荷载对平行换乘地铁车站深基坑变形影响

根据地铁车站轨道结构的特点,利用集总参数法建立了轮轨竖向耦合振动模型;分析了新建地铁车站深基坑开挖过程中既有车站内的轮轨接触荷载对车站结构及其周围土层变形的影响.通过计算分析认为,列车荷载引起的结构变形在允许值的7 %范围以内,引起的地面沉降在允许值的3 %范围以内.     

Imaging the ramp–décollement geometry of the Chelungpu fault using coseismic GPS displacements from the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake

We use coseismic GPS data from the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake to estimate the subsurface shape of the Chelungpu fault that ruptured during the earthquake. Studies prior to the earthquake suggest a ramp–décollement geometry for the Chelungpu fault, yet many finite source inversions using GPS and seismic data assume slip occurred on the down-dip extension of the Chelungpu ramp, rather than on a sub-horizontal décollement. We test whether slip occurred on the décollement or the down-dip extension of the ramp using well-established methods of inverting GPS data for geometry and slip on faults represented as elastic dislocations. We find that a significant portion of the coseismic slip did indeed occur on a sub-horizontal décollement located at 8 km depth. The slip on the décollement contributes 21% of the total modeled moment release. We estimate the fault geometry assuming several different models for the distribution of elastic properties in the earth: homogeneous, layered, and layered with lateral material contrast across the fault. It is shown, however, that heterogeneity has little influence on our estimated fault geometry. We also investigate several competing interpretations of deformation within the E/W trending rupture zone at the northern end of the 1999 ground ruptures. We demonstrate that the GPS data require a 22- to 35-km-long lateral ramp at the northern end, contradicting other investigations that propose deformation is concentrated within 10 km of the Chelungpu fault. Lastly, we propose a simple tectonic model for the development of the lateral ramp.     

用GPS秒信号锁定高频振荡器的方法研究

对用远距离传输的GPS秒信号锁定本地高频晶体振荡器的方法进行了探讨。介绍了高精度的时间数字转换器TDC(Time to Digital Converter)和对滤波的方法进行了探讨。为了降低成本又能够满足设计要求的精度，还考虑了双D／A转换的方法。有关的硬件系统已经通过了调试和一系列的测试和实验，在测量和控制精度方面，能达到设计的要求。此外，提出了这个系统有待解决的问题，如双D／A转换的非线性问题，Kalman滤波抗野值及继续提高精度的问题。     

基于OpenGIS规范的地理信息系统组件的内核及功能设计

提出了符合OpenGIS规范的二维地理信息系统组件软件MapManager的设计思想 ,介绍了MapManager的设计过程 ,并对其不足和进一步研究方向进行了讨论。     

Modeling Spatially and Temporally Complex Land‐Cover Change: The Case of Western Honduras*

This article presents an econometric analysis of land‐cover change in western Honduras. Ground‐truthed satellite image analysis indicates that between 1987 and 1996 net reforestation occurred in the 1,015‐km² study region. While some reforestation can be attributed to a 1987 ban on logging, the area of reforestation greatly exceeds that of previously clear‐cut areas. Further, new area was also deforested between 1987 and 1996. Thus, the observed land‐cover changes represent a complex mosaic of changing land‐use patterns across time and space. The analysis contributes to the literature on land‐cover change modeling in that: (1) it compares two econometric approaches to capture complex and often bidirectional changes in land cover from 1987 to 1996 as a function of agricultural suitability and transportation costs, and (2) it addresses techniques to identify and correct for spatial autocorrelation in a categorical regression framework.