Application of stress release models to historical earthquakes from North China

Univariate and multivariate stress release models are fitted to historical earthquake data from North China. It is shown that a better fit is obtained by treating separately the Eastern part of the region, including the North China Plain and Bohai Sea, and the Western part of the region, including the Ordos Plateau and its Eastern boundary. Further improvement is obtained by fitting the large events (M7.6) and smaller events in the Western region by different stress release models. The comparisons are made by computing the likelihoods of the fitted models and discounting the number of parameters used by Akaike's AIC criterion. The models are used to develop long-term risk scenarios for the East and West regions.     

RETRACTION: Numerical simulation of a wind-sand flow under different conditions of atmospheric stability

A theoretical model for wind‐sand flow is developed by considering the coupling between wind flow and sand particle motion, the latter subject to the Magnus effect, under different atmospheric stability conditions. Using this model, the characteristics of the wind‐sand flow are discussed in detail. The results show that the atmospheric stability and the Magnus effect both have a strong influence on wind profiles and on the trajectories of sand particles. This approach produces results with characteristics that differ from those previously reported; the latter only applying to atmospheric conditions of neutral stability. The saltating sand reaches a greater height under non‐neutral stability than under neutral stability, while the maximum horizontal distance is greater under unstable conditions and is smaller under stable conditions than under conditions of neutral stability.     

Decoupling of stalagmite-derived Asian summer monsoon records from North Atlantic temperature change during marine oxygen isotope stage 5d

The Asian monsoon is an important component of the global climate system. Seasonal variations in wind, rainfall, and temperature associated with the Asian monsoon systems affect a vast expanse of tropical and subtropical Asia. Speleothem-derived summer monsoon variation in East Asia was previously found to be closely associated with millennial-scale change in temperature in the North Atlantic region between 75 and 10 ka. New evidence recovered from East Asia, however, suggests that the teleconnection between summer monsoon in East Asia and temperature change in the North Atlantic region may have significantly reduced during 120 to ~ 110 ka, a period directly after the full last interglaciation and corresponding roughly to marine oxygen isotope stage 5d. This reduction may be due to the low ice volume in the North Hemisphere at that time, which makes the millennial-scale change in temperature in the North Atlantic region less effective in influencing the Asian summer monsoon. This is important for investigating the mechanisms controlling the Asian summer monsoon and the paleoclimatic teleconnection between East Asia and the North Atlantic region, and for predicting monsoon-associated precipitation in East Asia under a global-warming trend.     

Numerical modeling for analyzing thermal surface anomalies induced by underground coal fires

Coal seams burning underneath the surface are recognized all over the world and have drawn increasing public attention in the past years. Frequently, such fires are analyzed by detecting anomalies like increased exhaust gas concentrations and soil temperatures at the surface. A proper analysis presumes the understanding of involved processes, which determine the spatial distribution and dynamic behavior of the anomalies.In this paper, we explain the relevance of mechanical and energy transport processes with respect to the occurrence of temperature anomalies at the surface. Two approaches are presented, aiming to obtain insight into the underground coal fire situation: In-situ temperature mapping and numerical simulation. In 2000 to 2005, annual temperature mapping in the Wuda (Inner Mongolia, PR China) coal fire area showed that most thermal anomalies on the surface are closely related to fractures, where hot exhaust gases from the coal fire are released. Those fractures develop due to rock mechanical failure after volume reduction in the seams. The measured signals at the surface are therefore strongly affected by mechanical processes.More insight into causes and effects of involved energy transport processes is obtained by numerical simulation of the dynamic behavior of coal fires. Simulations show the inter-relation between release and transport of thermal energy in and around underground coal fires. Our simulation results show a time delay between the coal fire propagation and the observed appearance of the surface temperature signal. Additionally, the overall energy flux away from the burning coal seam into the surrounding bedrock is about 30-times higher than the flux through the surface. This is of particular importance for an estimation of the energy released based on surface temperature measurements. Finally, the simulation results also prove that a fire propagation rate estimated from the interpretation of surface anomalies can differ from the actual rate in the seam.     

Magnetotelluric investigations for imaging electrical structure of Garhwal Himalayan corridor,Uttarakhand, India

Magnetotelluric investigations have been carried out in the Garhwal Himalayan corridor to delineate the electrical structure of the crust along a profile extending from Indo-Gangetic Plain to Higher Himalayan region in Uttarakhand, India. The profile passing through major Himalayan thrusts: Himalayan Frontal Thrust (HFF), Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) and Main Central Thrust (MCT), is nearly perpendicular to the regional geological strike. Data processing and impedance analysis indicate that out of 44 stations MT data recorded, only 27 stations data show in general, the validity of 2D assumption. The average geoelectric strike, N70°W, was estimated for the profile using tensor decomposition. 2D smooth geoelectrical model has been presented, which provides the electrical image of the shallow and deeper crustal structure. The major features of the model are (i) a low resistivity (<50Ωm), shallow feature interpreted as sediments of Siwalik and Indo-Gangetic Plain, (ii) highly resistive (> 1000Ωm) zone below the sediments at a depth of 6 km, interpreted as the top surface of the Indian plate, (iii) a low resistivity (< 10Ωm) below the depth of 6 km near MCT zone coincides with the intense micro-seismic activity in the region. The zone is interpreted as the partial melting or fluid phase at mid crustal depth. Sensitivity test indicates that the major features of the geoelectrical model are relevant and desired by the MT data.     

Delineation of groundwater protection zones by the backward particle tracking method: theoretical background and GIS-based stochastic analysis

The backward particle tracking method, an effective and powerful tool that can be used to delineate groundwater protection zones, is presented. The theoretical background and insights on the applicability of this method are provided. Moreover, the present work enriches the backward particle tracking method with an uncertainty analysis concerning the porosity values, applying a Monte Carlo (MC) approach, coupled with the use of geographical information systems (GIS). As an application example, a wellfield in the Komotini area, Greece, is investigated. The present study may serve as a potential guideline for wellfield delineation, particularly in areas like Greece where lack of data related to the hydrogeological system is often a problem.     

On CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> fluid flow and heat transfer behavior in the subsurface,following leakage from a geologic storage reservoir

Geologic storage of CO₂ is expected to produce plumes of large areal extent, and some leakage may occur along fractures, fault zones, or improperly plugged pre-existing wellbores. A review of physical and chemical processes accompanying leakage suggests a potential for self-enhancement. The numerical simulations presented here confirm this expectation, but reveal self-limiting features as well. It seems unlikely that CO₂ leakage could trigger a high-energy run-away discharge, a so-called “pneumatic eruption,” but present understanding is insufficient to rule out this possibility. The most promising avenue for increasing understanding of CO₂ leakage behavior is the study of natural analogues.     

Stability at high-pressure,elastic behaviour and pressure-induced structural evolution of CsAlSi<Subscript>5</Subscript>O<Subscript>12</Subscript>, a potential host for nuclear waste

The elastic and structural behaviour of the synthetic zeolite CsAlSi₅O₁₂ (a = 16.753(4), b = 13.797(3) and c = 5.0235(17) Å, space group Ama2, Z = 2) were investigated up to 8.5 GPa by in situ single-crystal X-ray diffraction with a diamond anvil cell under hydrostatic conditions. No phase-transition occurs within the P-range investigated. Fitting the volume data with a third-order Birch–Murnaghan equation-of-state gives: V ₀ = 1,155(4) ų, K _T0 = 20(1) GPa and K′ = 6.5(7). The “axial moduli” were calculated with a third-order “linearized” BM-EoS, substituting the cube of the individual lattice parameter (a ³, b ³, c ³) for the volume. The refined axial-EoS parameters are: a ₀ = 16.701(44) Å, K _T0a = 14(2) GPa (β_a = 0.024(3) GPa^?1), K′ _a = 6.2(8) for the a-axis; b ₀ = 13.778(20) Å, K _T0b = 21(3) GPa (β_b = 0.016(2) GPa^?1), K′ _b = 10(2) for the b-axis; c ₀ = 5.018(7) Å, K _T0c = 33(3) GPa (β_c = 0.010(1) GPa^?1), K′ _c = 3.2(8) for the c-axis (K _T0a:K _T0b:K _T0c = 1:1.50:2.36). The HP-crystal structure evolution was studied on the basis of several structural refinements at different pressures: 0.0001 GPa (with crystal in DAC without any pressure medium), 1.58(3), 1.75(4), 1.94(6), 3.25(4), 4.69(5), 7.36(6), 8.45(5) and 0.0001 GPa (after decompression). The main deformation mechanisms at high-pressure are basically driven by tetrahedral tilting, the tetrahedra behaving as rigid-units. A change in the compressional mechanisms was observed at P ≤ 2 GPa. The P-induced structural rearrangement up to 8.5 GPa is completely reversible. The high thermo-elastic stability of CsAlSi₅O_12, the immobility of Cs at HT/HP-conditions, the preservation of crystallinity at least up to 8.5 GPa and 1,000°C in elastic regime and the extremely low leaching rate of Cs from CsAlSi₅O₁₂ allow to consider this open-framework silicate as functional material potentially usable for fixation and deposition of Cs radioisotopes.     

Ground motion estimation during the Kashmir earthquake of 8th October 2005

In this article, analytical methods have been used to estimate ground motion during the 8 October 2005, Kashmir earthquake. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) values at several stations in the epicentral region have been estimated by empirical analytical source mechanism models. As an alternate analysis, PGA estimates have also been obtained using the stochastic finite fault seismological model. The estimated PGAs are compared with that obtained from damage values. A PGA contour map in the near-source region is provided. It is found that very near to the epicenter, PGA would have reached more than 1 g. It is demonstrated that empirical analytical models can be effectively used to estimate ground motion due to rupture of active faults.     

陆面过程中稳定水同位素逐日变化的数学模拟——引入稳定同位素效应的CLM实例分析

将稳定同位素效应引入CLM(Community Land Model),并对巴西马瑙斯站在平衡年的稳定水同位素的逐日变化进行模拟和分析.结果表明: 降水、水汽和地表径流中δ18O存在明显的季节变化,并与相应的水量存在显著的负相关关系,但凝结物中δ18O与地面凝结量存在显著的正相关关系,蒸发水汽中δ18O与蒸发量之间无显著的相关关系.受土壤贮水削峰功能的影响,表层土壤和根区水中δ18O的季节变化全无.植被层蒸发水汽中稳定同位素的丰度与大气的干湿程度存在密切联系: 当降水量少时,大气干燥,植被层的蒸发较少,植被蒸发中δ18O较高;当降水量较大时,空气湿润,植被层的蒸发量较大,蒸发中δ18O则较低.植被蒸腾中δ18O的变化与源区水体中δ18O的变化保持一致,尤其是与根区水中的δ18O.由于地下径流直接源自根区水的补充,因此,地下径流中δ18O等于根区水中的δ18O.模拟结果还显示,降水MWL (大气水线)的梯度项和常数项均比全球平均MWL略偏小.尽管主要来自降水的贡献,但地表径流和植被层水体的MWLs与降水MWL存在较大的差异,这一方面与两类水体在蒸发过程中的稳定同位素的富集作用有关,另一方面与CLM模拟的水量有关.大气水汽线与降水的MWL的梯度值相近,说明大气水汽与降水近似处于稳定同位素平衡状态.另外,模拟的地面的凝结线与植被层的凝结线均与全球大气水线相近,且具有非常高相关程度,说明CLM的模拟是合理的.