A hydro‐economic modelling framework for flood damage estimation and the role of riparian vegetation

A modelling framework for the quick estimate of flood inundation and the resultant damages is developed in this paper. The model, called the flood economic impact analysis system (FEIAS), can be applied to a river reach of any hydrogeological river basin. For the development of the integrated modelling framework, three models were employed: (1) a modelling scheme based on the Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN model that was developed for any geomorphological river basin, (2) a river flow/floodplain model, and (3) a flood loss estimation model. The first sub‐model of the flood economic impact analysis system simulates the hydrological processes for extended periods of time, and its output is used as input to a second component, the river/floodplain model. The hydraulic model MIKE 11 (quasi‐2D) is the river/floodplain model employed in this study. The simulated flood parameters from the hydraulic model MIKE 11 (quasi‐2D) are passed, at the end of each time step, to a third component, the flood loss model for the estimation of flood damage. In the present work, emphasis was given to the seasonal variation of Manning's coefficient (n), which is an important parameter for the determination of the flood inundation in hydraulic modelling. High values of Manning's coefficient for a channel indicate high flow resistance. The riparian vegetation can have a large impact on channel resistance. The modelling framework developed in this paper was used to investigate the role of riparian vegetation in reducing flood damage. Moreover, it was used to investigate the influence of cutting riparian vegetation scenarios on the flow characteristics. The proposed framework was applied to the downstream part of the Koiliaris River basin in Crete, Greece, and was tested and validated with historical data. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

鄂尔多斯盆地庆城地区延长组7段致密油特征及油源分析

鄂尔多斯盆地三叠系延长组7段(长7段）半深湖—深湖相优质油源岩是油气的重要来源,包括黑色页岩和暗色泥岩,作为盆地重要的供烃源岩一直是研究的热点。为了明确不同烃源岩的贡献及油气来源,通过对庆城地区长7段致密油特征进行分析,对原油进行精细划分,并对源岩有效性进行分析,进一步明确油源对应关系,研究表明,庆城地区长7段黑色页岩和暗色泥岩均对油气成藏有贡献,其中黑色页岩贡献最大,长73段暗色泥岩次之,长72和长71段暗色泥岩贡献较小;原油为低密度、中—低黏度和低凝固点的轻质油。根据生标物特征将原油划分为3类,A类原油具有低C30重排藿烷/C29藿烷、低C29Ts/C29藿烷、低Ts/Tm的特征,由黑色页岩贡献,主要分布于长71段;C类原油具有高C30重排藿烷/C29藿烷、高C29Ts/C29藿烷、高Ts/Tm的特征,主要由暗色泥岩贡献,数量较少且分布局限;B类油各项生标物参数均居中,为A、C类原油的混合,主要分布于长72段。由于黑色页岩生烃时间比暗色泥岩早,且原油黏度和密度更低,因此黑色页岩先生成低黏度A类原油易于向长72和长71段运移,而暗色泥岩后生成的C类原油主要近源富集与A类油混合分布于长72段,从而形成的A类油主要分布于长71段,B类油主要分布于长72段,而C类油分布局限的格局。这对下一步勘探开发及资源评价有重要意义。     

日本3·11大震前后首都圈地区跨断层水准的变形特征及成因探讨

以跨断层水准实测资料为基础,分析2011-03-11日本东部Mw9.0大震前后首都圈地区(114°~119°E,39°~41°N)地壳垂向变形特征。通过构建首都圈地区三维有限元模型,初步探讨跨越不同几何结构断层的测线所表现出的变形特征的动力学成因。结果表明:1)首都圈地区跨断层水准资料表现出群体性变形特征,反映相同的断层运动性质;2)NNE-NE向断层的上盘相对下盘垂向下降,NW向断层上盘相对下盘同样垂向下降,表征着首都圈地区NNE-NE、NW向断层受到不同程度的张性应力作用;3)数值模拟给出的不同方向跨断层测线的垂向变化结果同样表现出与实测结果较为一致的断层正断运动性质,即断层上盘相对下盘垂向下降;4)日本Mw9.0大震造成首都圈地区近E-W向的张性应力是产生首都圈地区跨断层水准资料群体性变化的主要原因。     

Success in heading north?: South Korea's master plan for Arctic policy

South Korea's seven governmental ministries and agency jointly announced a “Master Plan for Arctic Policy” on December 10, 2013. This represents the state's first comprehensive Arctic policy document. This paper aims to analyze the Korean government's Master Plan from both the legal and policy perspectives, as well as to make constructive comments for its improvement. Environmental changes, the need for scientific research, growing economic optimism about the Arctic region, and political leadership have led South Korea to head north. These four factors form the basis for the Master Plan. This document outlines Korea's vision (to be a reliable and responsible partner in this polar region), three policy goals, four strategies, and thirty-one projects connected to the Arctic region. The formation of the Master Plan has been an opportunity for South Korea to organize and compile all the various Arctic activities independently conducted by governmental ministries and agency. In order to improve South Korea's Arctic policy since the Master Plan, the author recommends that the nation prioritize its projects according to its needs and the feasibility of each project. Prudence is required in the drafting and implementation of Arctic policy to respect Arctic states' sovereignties and sovereign rights over the Arctic areas. Finally, strengthening cooperation with the Arctic states and at Arctic forums is indispensable. In particular, bilateral cooperation is essential for South Korea to perform economic activities such as the exploration for oil and gas.     

中尺度涡旋混合参数空间变化对物理场以及CFC-11模拟的影响

本文选用中国科学院大气物理研究所全球海洋模式(LICOM),对中尺度涡旋参数化方案(GM90方案)中等密度扩散系数和等密度面厚度扩散系数(统称为涡旋扩散系数A_ρ)对物理场及CFC-11(一氟三氯甲烷)分布的影响进行了研究。本文做了两个试验,即涡旋扩散系数采用常系数方式(对照试验)和采用在非绝热层以下A_ρ随海洋浮力频率垂直变化的参数化方案(浮力试验)。模拟结果表明,依浮力频率垂直变化的方案对模式物理场的模拟能力有一定程度的提升,如南极绕极流的输送强度比常系数方案增大了约20%~30%,与观测事实更接近;浮力试验对对照试验中过强的南极中层水有一定的削弱作用,使得模式对南大洋高纬次表层位密度的模拟有一定的改善。稍有不足的是,浮力试验对南极底层水也有一定的削弱,使得2000~3000 m深度位密度模拟较常系数方案偏低。通过对CFC-11分布、存储以及输送的研究发现,次网格参数取值的不同对南大洋CFC-11模拟情况有较大影响。浮力试验加大了南北高纬CFC-11海表的吸收通量,对南极大陆周边海域向南大洋主储藏区(34°S~60°S)的CFC-11输送能力有一定的增强,使得南大洋对CFC-11储藏量增大,大部分海区与观测资料更接近。通过CFC-11断面分析,浮力试验对南大洋上层海洋位密度模拟的改善使得CFC-11垂直结构与观测更接近。     

中国大陆MS≥7.0地震与太阳黑子活动之间关系的统计检验

利用1900—2017年间中国大陆地区64次M_S≥7.0地震资料,根据太阳黑子11年周期变化计算了它们的相位角,分析了它们的相位角分布,利用统计检验方法对它们与太阳黑子11年周期变化之间的关系进行了检验。结果是:中国大陆地区M_S≥7.0地震中约66%发生在太阳黑子11年周期变化的谷值点前2年—后3年的时段内,在α=0.001显著性水平下通过显著性检验。2019年底太阳黑子11年周期变化将达谷值点,因此,2018—2022年为中国大陆地区M_S7.0地震易发时段。      

Influence of the 11-Year Solar Cycle on Variations of Cosmic Ray Intensity

The monthly cosmic ray intensity (CRI) time series from Climax, Huancayo, Moscow, Kiel, and Calgary are used to investigate the presence of the 11-year periodic component with special attention paid to the solar influence on these variations. The results show obvious 11-year temporal characteristics in CRI variations. We also find a close anticorrelation between the 11-year solar cycle and CRI variations and time delays of the CRI relative to solar activity.     

差示FT-Raman和11B NMR方法研究过饱和镁硼酸盐的溶液结构

用差示FT -Raman和11BNMR光谱研究了MgB6O10 ·7 5H2 O、MgB4O7·9H2 O、Mg2 B6O10 ·1 5H2 O三种镁硼酸盐饱和和过饱和溶液的结构机理 ,其结果表明饱和溶液和过饱和溶液中均存在B(OH) 3 、B(OH) -4、B3 O3 (OH) -4、B5O6(OH) 4 -粒子。镁硼酸盐的结晶过程是一个复杂的动力学平衡过程     

十一运会开幕式消（减）雨作业数值模拟研究

利用中科院大气所开发并发展的三维对流云模式对十一届全运会开幕式当天影响山东的对流过程进行了数值模拟和过量催化试验。结果表明模拟自然云与观测事实吻合较好;设计96组催化方案对该个例进行消(减)雨模拟试验、催化试验表明,在模拟云3.5km高度的最大过冷水含量中心引入3600.0g碘化银催化剂,连续催化消(减)雨效果较好(地面降水总量减少97.5%),此次模拟对比分析了模拟自然云与催化云,从微观上探讨了消(减)雨的基本原理,模拟所用催化剂量、催化部位与当天山东人影办的作业实际基本一致,对指导实际作业有一定的参考价值。     

Tephrochronological dating of varved interglacial lake deposits from Piànico‐Sèllere (Southern Alps,Italy) to around 400 ka

The sediment record from the Piànico palaeolake in the southern Alps is continuously varved, spans more than 15 500 years, and represents a key archive for interglacial climate variability at seasonal resolution. The stratigraphic position of the Piànico Interglacial has been controversial in the past. The identification of two volcanic ash layers and their microscopic analysis provides distinct marker layers for tephrochronological dating of these interglacial deposits. In addition to micro‐facies analyses reconstructing depositional processes of both tephra layers within the lake environment, their mineralogical and geochemical composition has been determined through major‐element electron probe micro‐analysis on glass shards. Comparison with published tephra data traced the volcanic source regions of the Piànico tephras to the Campanian volcanic complex of Roccamonfina (Italy) and probably the Puy de Sancy volcano in the French Massif Central. Available dating of near‐vent deposits from the Roccamonfina volcano provides a robust tephrochronological anchor point at around 400 ka for the Piànico Interglacial. These deposits correlate with marine oxygen isotope stage (MIS) 11 and thus are younger than Early to Middle Pleistocene previously suggested by K/Ar dating and older than the last interglacial as inferred from macrofloral remains and the geological setting. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.