气象风险源的社会关注度风险等级分析方法

为了定量分析社会公众对气象风险关注等级程度以及对应等级的关注人数,综合应用模糊数学和多项式拟合方法,以西安市2004年1月至2007年10月,与当地公众生活关系密切的5类高影响天气事件,即:高温、雷暴、大到暴雨、中雨和小雨,作为潜在气象风险源,综合应用12121气象信息服务电话拨打次数和气象信息,计算出气象风险超越概率,通过对其4次多项式的拟合和求解,定量计算了一般、中、高三等级的气象风险关注度以及对应等级的关注人数.这有利于政府决策者及社会公众在响应气象风险时有较为定量的判断.     

海洋水色卫星遥感研究与进展

系统介绍了目前海洋水色卫星遥感在海洋碳通量、生物海洋学及上层海洋过程研究,以及海岸带环境监测与管理中的主要应用方向;分析了上述应用对水色卫星传感器在时空分辨率、光谱波段设置和空间覆盖范围等方面的具体设计要求;概括了新一代水色卫星传感器的特点;指出了水色卫星遥感资料应用中的定标、大气校正及定量反演技术等关键问题;介绍了各国海洋水色卫星遥感的发展计划,提出了我国海洋水色卫星遥感研究的对策。     

基于共生理论的中国沿海省市海洋经济生态协调模式研究

建立海洋生态与海洋经济的共生演化Logistic模型,通过压力-状态-影响-响应（PSIR）模型对Logistic模型中的基本指数进行求解,进一步计算海洋生态与海洋经济之间的共生系数,结果表明：天津和上海两市发展模式已摆脱资源索取模式,其海洋经济生态共生模式的探讨意义较小;其余沿海九省中,河北、江苏、广西和海南4省处于反向共生水平,辽宁和山东两省呈现并生模式,浙江和广东呈现出生态受益的偏利共生模式,福建则呈现出经济受害的偏利共生模式。根据沿海各省市海洋经济生态共生模式,提出相关的政策建议,以期对沿海省市今后的经济和生态发展模式提供理论依据。     

强震临震微波动现象初步研究(二)

为了验证和检验强震临震微波动现象及其主要特征,利用甘、青、川、滇、藏等区域台网200余个宽频带数字地震台站的波形资料,建立了实时监控技术系统。通过对2012~2014年间青藏块体发生的24次5级以上地震及部分无震区域台站观测的全程实时跟踪、动态监控,检验和验证了临震微波动现象的重现性和客观性,验证了临震微波动现象的频谱、时间、空间、方向性等特征,进一步得出了临震微波动现象可能与地震强度有关,且震级越大,震前出现持续临震微波动的可能性越大的结论。     

鄂尔多斯盆地南部奥陶系马六段白云岩特征及形成机制研究

鄂尔多斯盆地马六段在盆地大部分地区被剥蚀,仅在盆地周缘地区分布,因此,有关该盆地马六段白云岩成因研究较少。本文通过对马六段白云岩岩石学特征、阴极发光特征、微量元素特征以及碳氧同位素地球化学特征进行分析,对鄂尔多斯盆地南部马六段白云岩特征及形成机制进行了研究。研究结果表明,盆地南部马六段白云岩主要由细—中晶白云岩组成,白云石具"雾心亮边"结构,阴极发光呈暗红色光。微量元素总体上具有较低的Fe、Mn值,平均值分别为447×10~(-6)和62×10~(-6),较高的K、Na值,平均值分别为517×10-6和252×10~(-6),以及中等含量的Sr元素值,平均值为155×10~(-6)。δ~(13)C值平均为-0.617‰,δ~(18)O值平均为-7.6‰,以上特征均反映出海源流体特征。白云石的"雾心"和"亮边"结构中微量元素含量相差不大,认为是在相同成岩环境的不同成岩阶段形成,其中"雾心"形成于浅埋藏环境的渗透回流白云石化作用,而"亮边"是在深埋藏环境下对早期白云石的调整和加强。     

Geochemistry,mineralogy and petrogenesis of the northeast Niğde volcanics,central Anatolia,Turkey

The volcanics exposed in the northeast Niğde area are characterized by pumiceous pyroclastic rocks present as ash flows and fall deposits and by compositions ranging from dacite to rhyolite. Xenoliths found in the volcanics are basaltic andesite, andesite and dacite in composition. These rocks exhibit linear chemical variations between end‐member compositions and a continuity of trace element behaviour exists through the basaltic andesite–andesite–dacite–rhyolite compositional range. This is consistent with the fractionation of ferromagnesian minerals and plagioclase from a basaltic andesite or andesite parent. These rocks are peraluminous and show typical high‐K calc‐alkaline differentiation trends with total iron content decreasing progressively with increasing silica content. Bulk rock and mineral compositional trends and petrographic data suggest that crustal material was added to the magmas by subducted oceanic crust and is a likely contaminant of the source zone of the Niğde magmas. The chemical variations in these volcanics indicate that crystal liquid fractionation has been a dominant process in controlling the chemistry of the northeast Niğde volcanics. It is also clear, from the petrographic and chemical features, that magma mixing with disequilibrium played a significant role in the evolution of the Niğde volcanic rocks. This is shown by normal and reverse zoning in plagioclase and resorption of most of the observed minerals. The xenoliths found in the Niğde volcanics represent the deeper part of the magma reservoir which equilibrated at the higher pressures. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

2014年2月12日新疆于田7．3级地震抗震安居（安居富民）房破坏比初步分析

2014年2月12日新疆于田Ms7．3地震是新疆开展抗震安居（安居富民）房建设以来首次产生较大规模成灾破坏震例,以震区抗震房不同结构类型破坏程度和抽样调查数据确定震区抗震房Ⅵ度区和Ⅶ度区的破坏比,与新疆历史破坏性地震相似结构类型房屋的破坏比进行对比分析。     

Triassic warm subduction in northeast Turkey: Evidence from the Ağvanis metamorphic rocks

Within the Tethyan realm, data for the subduction history of the Permo–Triassic Tethys in the form of accretionary complexes are scarce, coming mainly from northwest Turkey and Tibet. Herein we present field geological, petrological and geochronological data on a Triassic accretionary complex, the A?vanis metamorphic rocks, from northeast Turkey. The A?vanis metamorphic rocks form a SSE–NNW trending lozenge‐shaped horst, ～20 km long and ～6 km across, bounded by the strands of the active North Anatolian Fault close to the collision zone between the Eastern Pontides and the Menderes–Taurus Block. The rocks consist mainly of greenschist‐ to epidote‐amphibolite‐facies metabasite, phyllite, marble and minor metachert and serpentinite, interpreted as a metamorphic accretionary complex based on the oceanic rock types and ocean island basaltic, mid‐ocean ridge basaltic and island‐arc tholeiitic affinities of the metabasites. This rock assemblage was intruded by stocks and dikes of Early Eocene quartz diorite, leucogranodiorite and dacite porphyry. Metamorphic conditions are estimated to be 470–540°C and ～0.60–0.90 GPa. Stepwise ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating of phengite–muscovite separates sampled outside the contact metamorphic aureoles yielded steadily increasing age spectra with the highest incremental stage corresponding to age values ranging from ～180 to 209 Ma, suggesting that the metamorphism occurred at ≥ 209 Ma. Thus, the A?vanis metamorphic rocks represent the vestiges of the Late Triassic or slightly older subduction in northeast Turkey. Estimated P–T conditions indicate higher temperatures than those predicted by steady state thermal models for average subduction zones, and can best be accounted for by a hot subduction zone, similar to the present‐day Cascadia. Contact metamorphic mineral assemblages around an Early Eocene quartz diorite stock, on the other hand, suggest that the present‐day erosion level was at depths of ～14 km during the Early Eocene, indicative of reburial of the metamorphic rocks. Partial disturbance of white‐mica Ar–Ar age spectra was probably caused by the reburial coupled with heat input by igneous activity, which is probably related to thrusting due to the continental collision between Eastern Pontides and the Menderes–Taurus Block.     

流花11-1油田礁灰岩油藏储层非均质性及剩余油分布规律

结合流花11-1油田的岩芯、测井、地震、开发动态等资料总结了礁灰岩油藏沉积、成岩及构造等因素造成的储层非均质特征,引入的储层非均质综合指数,可更快速、直观地揭示了剩余油的分布规律.分析了控制剩余油分布规律的地质因素和开发因素.根据储层非均质性的综合研究成果,指出了剩余油潜力区;在潜力区部署的侧钻井生产情况较好,研究成果得到了验证.该研究思路对类似油田储层非均质性的表征与剩余油分布的预测有较好的借鉴作用.     

冻土工程与环境研究的新进展——第八届国际冻土工程会议回顾

2009年10月在西安召开第八届国际冻土工程会议, 就冻土地区工程设计与建设、季节冻土区工程冻害防治、冻土物理力学特性、 模型发展及其应用、寒区气候、环境及冷生变化、多年冻土水文学、寒区水资源和土地应用等主要议题进行了广泛交流, 报告了近年来冻土工程与环境研究方面的一些新进展. 从冻土工程设计、施工和评价、普通冻土研究、冻土的物理力学性质、冻土模型发展及应用、 气候变化及冰冻圈环境等方面对该次会议交流的成果进行了总结. 与会研究者认为今后的研究一方面要加强理论研究、工程措施机理研究;另一方面要加强寒区环境对气候变化的响应及反馈、以及环境变化与冻土工程措施之间的相互作用研究.