我国中部地区夏季干旱的多时间尺度特征及其环流、海温异常

基于CRU逐月降水和NCEP/NCAR再分析等资料,利用集合经验模态分解(Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition,EEMD)方法,分析1948—2016年中国中部地区夏季降水变化的多时间尺度特征及其对应的环流、海温异常,进而解释不同时期影响干旱发生的背景场有何不同。结果表明,中部地区夏季降水以年际变化为主,周期长度为3.8 a和6.9 a,年代际和多年代际变化的方差贡献不足20%。然而,各时间尺度降水变化对不同时期干旱事件的贡献存在较大差异,1960s、1970s,降水年际变化偏弱,相反地,多年代际变化正处于负位相的极小值期;1980s、1990s,多年代际变化位相转正;2000s初,年际变化明显增强。此外,通过分析不同时间尺度降水变化对应的环流、海温背景场,发现热带印度洋海温异常及其引起的西北太平洋副热带高压的变化、大西洋北部海温异常激发的纬向波列以及贝加尔湖地区的阻塞活动、1970s末PDO位相转变伴随的东亚夏季风突变是分别解释降水年际、年代际和多年代际变化的主要原因,进而揭示影响中部地区夏季干旱发生的关键因子及其相对重要性。     

1999年夏季江淮地区热源和水汽汇时空变化特征

利用1999年的NCAR再分析网格点风场、温度场、湿度场及含HUBEX试验加密观测的降水资料等,诊断分析了夏季长江流域梅雨暴雨集中期及其前后江淮地区的大气热源、水汽汇的时空分布及多时间尺度特征.     

吉林春旱期降水潜在影响因子的分离时间尺度分析

基于1960—2012年的地面常规气象指标、大尺度气候指数和NOAA气候分析产品,利用功率谱周期分析、时间尺度分离分析和交叉检验的逐步回归分析等,把吉林省春旱期(4—5月)降水量分离成不同时间尺度的值,并在年代际尺度和年际尺度下分别找到显著相关的影响因子。结果表明:吉林春旱期降水存在着2~4 a的年际变化和10 a左右的年代际变化。在年代际尺度上,4月降水与前期3月南半球环球状态指数以及俄罗斯东部高纬地区的低空经向风有关,5月降水与同期北半球环球状态指数和前期4月太平洋中高纬环流有关;在年际尺度上,4月降水与前期3月混合ENSO指数和同期当地相对湿度、华东华北沿海地区的低层经向风有关,5月降水与同期北大西洋涛动指数以及局地相对湿度、地面气压有关。利用选出的影响因子对降水进行预报,估计值和真实值的相关系数分别为0.67(4月)和0.81(5月),且选择合适的影响因子比模型结构更加重要。     

陕西省“八五”区调新进展

本文重点论述了陕西省“八五”期间区域地质调查方面的新进展、新成果、新发现、新资料、主要包括：前寒武纪变质杂者及岩群解体划分、显生苗地层厘定、古生物和同位素测年新资料、侵入岩谱系单位建立、变质深成岩体和造山带构造研究、填图方法新的探索与区调信息化等方面。并根据全省区调成果和资料，适当作了区域性综合研究、分析归纳。     

Deterministic signals in precipitation in Arkansas,Louisiana, and Mississippi

Evidence for a signal near 19 years is found in 51 out of 65 rain gauge records in the tri-state region of Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi, While another term with period 10 to 11 years is found in 39 instances. These are identified as the 18.6-year luni-solarM _n and solar cycleS _c signals in climate variability. In terms of both amplitude and phase the luni-solar wave trains are highly nonstationary; in particular, the waves commonly change phase by 180°. Examples of theM _n andS _c terms in corn yield for Arkansas and Missouri are presented, and the implications for economic science briefly discussed.     

Calibrating the middle and late Permian palynostratigraphy of Australia to the geologic time-scale via U–Pb zircon CA-IDTIMS dating

The advent of chemical abrasion-isotope dilution thermal ionisation mass spectrometry (CA-IDTIMS) has revolutionised U–Pb dating of zircon, and the enhanced precision of eruption ages determined on volcanic layers within basin successions permits an improved calibration of biostratigraphic schemes to the numerical time-scale. The Guadalupian and Lopingian (Permian) successions in the Sydney, Gunnedah, Bowen and Canning basins are mostly non-marine and include numerous airfall tuff units, many of which contain zircon. The eastern Australian palynostratigraphic scheme provides the basis for much of the local correlation, but the present calibration of this scheme against the numerical time-scale depends on a correlation to Western Australia, using rare ammonoids and conodonts in that succession to link to the standard global marine biostratigraphic scheme. High-precision U–Pb zircon dating of tuff layers via CA-IDTIMS allows this tenuous correlation to be circumvented—the resulting direct calibration of the palynostratigraphy to the numerical time-scale highlights significant inaccuracies in the previous indirect correlation. The new data show: the top of the Praecolpatites sinuosus Zone (APP3.2) lies in the early Roadian, not the middle Kungurian; the top of the Microbaculispora villosa Zone (APP3.3) lies in the middle Roadian, not the early Roadian; the top of the Dulhuntyispora granulata Zone (APP4.1) lies in the Wordian, not in the latest Roadian; the top of the Didecitriletes ericianus Zone (APP4.2) lies in the first half of the Wuchiapingian, not the latest Wordian; the Dulhuntyispora dulhuntyi Zone (APP4.3) is exceptionally short and lies within the Wuchiapingian, not the early Capitanian; and the top of the Dulhuntyispora parvithola Zone (APP5) lies at or near the Permo-Triassic boundary, not in the latest Wuchiapingian.     

Influence of the 11-Year Solar Cycle on Variations of Cosmic Ray Intensity

The monthly cosmic ray intensity (CRI) time series from Climax, Huancayo, Moscow, Kiel, and Calgary are used to investigate the presence of the 11-year periodic component with special attention paid to the solar influence on these variations. The results show obvious 11-year temporal characteristics in CRI variations. We also find a close anticorrelation between the 11-year solar cycle and CRI variations and time delays of the CRI relative to solar activity.     

Estimation of the Mesozoic geological time scale

Geological time scales are constructed by combining the stratigraphic record with radiometric dates and their standard deviations. The stratigraphic record encompasses litho-, bio-, chrono-, and magnetostratigraphy. The statistical methods employed should embody concepts and data available for the systems considered. Recently, in order to estimate the ages of 31 Mesozoic stage boundaries, use was made of a database with chronostratigraphic classifications for 340 dates, biostratigraphic data including ammonite subzones, and information on seafloor spreading. This paper is primarily concerned with the propagation of errors through the successive steps of the data analysis. The following stepwise approach was taken for combining the different types of data: (1) maximum likelihood estimation with windows set around prior stage boundary estimates, (2) averaging of estimates with variable precision including magnetochronologic data, and (3) calibration by means of cubic smoothing splines assuming equal duration of ammonite subzones. The end product is a time-scale in which the stage boundary ages are accompanied by approximate 95 per cent confidence intervals.     

Analysis of 19-year tidal data

19-year tidal data of the 3 stations, Huludao, Qinhuangdao and Kanmen, have totally been analysed, and the amplitudes and phases of 472 tidal constituents have been calculated with a resolution of Δσ⩾ 0.002 2°/h. Based on the draconitic tide, the anornalistic tide and pole tide obtained, the ultra-long-period variations of the mean sea level have been predicted. The annual tidal analysis of 19-year data at the above-mentioned stations and at Tanggu, Longkou has been carried out. The stability of the annual tidal analysis has been investigated with regard to the astronomical factors, the nonlinear effects and the variations of sea-bottom topography.     

汉江上游安康东段全新世古洪水沉积学与水文学研究

通过沿汉江上游河谷深入的考察,在安康东段发现了典型的古洪水滞流沉积剖面.通过采集样品、实验分析,确定它们是古洪水在高水位滞流环境当中的悬移质沉积物.根据地层对比、OSL测年和相关文化层年代,确定它们分别记录了发生在BL+AL与YD事件转折阶段(12500 a B.P.)的古洪水事件和发生在1000-900 a B.P.(1000-1100AD),即北宋后期的洪水事件.根据古洪水SWD的高程恢复其洪峰水位,结合相关参数,利用面积比降法计算恢复流量.结果表明在万年尺度,汉江上游古洪水洪峰流量介于35970~47400 m³/s之间.同时,利用2010年大洪水洪痕恢复计算洪峰流量,对古洪水洪峰流量计算结果进行了验证.进而结合历史洪水和观测洪水数据,获得了汉江上游万年尺度洪水洪峰流量与频率关系.这为汉江上游的水利水电和交通工程建设以及沿岸城镇防洪减灾提供了基础性数据.