利用空间聚集的贝叶斯网络评估手足口病发病风险

手足口病是一种常见的传染病,以往的研究表明该疾病与气象、环境和社会经济等因素相关联,其影响关系复杂,而疾病本身体现出较强的区域聚集性,采用普通的线性风险建模方法无法捕捉影响因素的复杂性及空间聚集性。因此,本文以山东省为例,在前人研究的基础上,提出了采用贝叶斯网络综合风险建模方法研究手足口病的发病风险与气象、土地利用、社会经济及空气污染等要素间的关系,并通过引入空间扫描统计聚集结果,将空间聚集引入到贝叶斯网络模型加强其空间推理功能,减少模型的偏差,提高评估的精度。结果表明,本文建立的手足口病空间贝叶斯网络风险模型具有较高的估计效果,引入的空间聚集性较好地融入到贝叶斯概率推理模型中,合理建立预测因子同手足口病发病风险之间的关系。通过对建模结果的解译,分析了手足口病的发病风险影响因素,特别是气候、社会经济及空气污染的影响。本文的空间贝叶斯建模方法及研究结果对手足口病暴发的防控预警具有重要的意义。     

浅谈业余天文观测中的流星光学监测

在业余天文观测中,监测流星是很多资深天文爱好者的观测项目之一。近年来,国内也相继组建了流星监测网,如最早实现流星网络监测的"广东流星监测网",以及目前国内最大的流星监测网络——中国流星监测网。根据不同地点的监测数据,我们可以计算出未燃烧完的火流星坠落的大致范围,为寻找陨石提供支持,同时还可以发现新的流星群。     

海潮模型对陆态网络GNSS观测的影响

选取FES2004、NAO.99b、FES2014b、EOT20、GOT4.10c、TPXO9.5a海潮模型分别对253个陆态网络GNSS测站进行海潮负荷位移(ocean tide loading displacement, OTLD)改正,分析未模型化或模型不准确的OTLD对陆态网络GNSS高程时间序列和天顶对流层延迟(zenith tropospheric delay, ZTD)估计的影响。结果表明,OTLD影响越大,不同海潮模型改正对GNSS高程时间序列的w_RMS改善效果和差异越明显,改善效果最高可达52%以上,最大差异可达11%;海潮模型差异造成的GNSS最大混叠信号振幅约为4 mm,对应周期主要为14.8 d、365 d; OTLD与ZTD偏差存在准线性关系,使用的海潮模型实用性越好,两者线性关系越明显;FES2014b模型对GNSS高程时间序列的w_RMS、混叠周期、ZTD估计的OTLD改正效果均最优。     

不动产登记与法院网络司法查控协同办理模式研究——以湖南省为例

针对传统人工查控模式存在的“查人找物”难题,本文提出信息化和大数据时代背景下网络司法查控的重要性,结合省级“总对总”方式开展的网络司法查控协同办理工作新模式,从总体思路和业务流程方面进行详细介绍,并对其中的关键问题进行说明。通过在永州、益阳、沅江等3个地区的试运行实践发现,该模式可促进全省不动产登记信息查询、查（解）封登记“全网办”“无纸化”,可实现法院与不动产登记的双向减负和效率共进,为全省范围内不动产网络司法查控的全面铺开提供支撑保障。     

液态水与宇宙生命宜居带

所谓“生命宜居带”,指的是行星距离行星系的中心恒星远近“合适”的区域,在这一区域中,由于恒星传递给行星的热量适中,行星既不太热也不太冷。且能够确长期保存在液容水,水是生命存在的关键因素。     

"金土工程"初显成效"数字国土"再上台阶--"网络、数据、软件"三工程促进国土资源管理信息化

近年来，宁波市镇海区经济社会发展日新月异，宁波市国土资源局镇海分局作为国土资源行政管理部门深刻意识到，要想使国土资源管理工作紧紧跟上现代化建设的步伐，靠传统的管理方式远远不够。把先进科技融入行业管理之中，依靠现代科技手段提高管理水平和效率则是必然的要求和趋势。     

PDF在档案管理中的应用

传统的以纸质为载体的档案管理模式具有难以克服的缺陷,而各类电子文档无法做到原版原式、缺乏对文档的审阅批注功能,作者根据PDF应用现状以及PDF文件格式的主要特性,指出PDF文件格式是档案信息资源数字化、网络化过程中可以采用的较理想的电子文档格式.     

Relationships between fractal road and drainage networks in Wuling mountainous area: Another symmetric understanding of human-environment relations

Symmetrical relationships between humans and their environment have been referred to as an extension of symmetries in the human geographical system and have drawn great attention. This paper explored the symmetry between physical and human systems through fractal analysis of the road and drainage networks in Wuling mountainous area. We found that both the road and drainage networks reflect weak clustering distributions. The evolution of the road network shared a significant self-organizing composition, while the drainage network showed obvious double fraetal characteristics. The geometric fractal dimension of the road network was larger than that of the drainage network. In addition, when assigned a weight relating to hierarchy or length, neither the road network nor drainage network showed a fractal property. These findings indicated that the fractal evolution of the road network shared certain similarities with fractal distribution of the drainage network. The symmetry between the two systems resulted from an interactive process of destroying symmetry at the lower order and reconstructing symmetry at the higher order. The relationships between the fractal dimensions of the rural-urban road network, the drainage network andthe urban system indicated that the development of this area was to achieve the symmetrical isomorphism of physical-human geographical systems.     

Spatiotemporal patterns of road network and road development priority in three parallel rivers region in Yunnan, China: An evaluation based on modified kernel distance estimate

Road network is a critical component of public infrastructure,and the supporting system of social and economic development.Based on a modified kernel density estimate(KDE)algorithm,this study evaluated the road service capacity provided by a road network composed of multi-level roads(i.e.national,provincial,county and rural roads),by taking account of the differences of effect extent and intensity for roads of different levels.Summarized at town scale,the population burden and the annual rural economic income of unit road service capacity were used as the surrogates of social and economic demands for road service.This method was applied to the road network of the Three Parallel River Region,the northwestern Yunnan Province,China to evaluate the development of road network in this region.In results,the total road length of this region in 2005 was 3.70×104km,and the length ratio between national,provincial,county and rural roads was 1∶2∶8∶47.From 1989 to 2005,the regional road service capacity increased by 13.1%,of which the contributions from the national,provincial,county and rural roads were 11.1%,19.4%,22.6%,and 67.8%,respectively,revealing the effect of′All Village Accessible′policy of road development in the mountainous regions in the last decade.The spatial patterns of population burden and economic requirement of unit road service suggested that the areas farther away from the national and provincial roads have higher road development priority(RDP).Based on the modified KDE model and the framework of RDP evaluation,this study provided a useful approach for developing an optimal plan of road development at regional scale.     

大数据时代的人类移动性研究

人类个体/群体移动特征是多学科共同关注的研究主题。移动定位、无线通讯和移动互联网技术的快速发展使得获取大规模、长时间序列、精细时空粒度的个体移动轨迹和相互作用定量化成为可能。同时,地理信息科学、统计物理学、复杂网络科学和计算机科学等多学科交叉也为人类移动性研究的定量化提供了有力支撑。本文首先系统总结了大数据时代开展人类移动性研究的多源异构数据基础和多学科研究方法,然后将人类移动性研究归纳为面向人和面向地理空间两大方向。面向人的研究侧重探索人类移动特性的统计规律,并建立模型解释相应的动力学机制,或分析人类活动模式,并预测出行或活动;面向地理空间的研究侧重从地理视角分析人类群体在地理空间中的移动,探索宏观活动和地理空间的交互特征。围绕这两大方向,本文评述了人类移动性的研究进展和存在问题,认为人类移动性研究在数据稀疏性、数据偏斜影响与处理、多源异构数据挖掘、机器学习方法等方面依然面临挑战,对多学科研究方法的交叉与融合提出了更高要求。