江西夏季旱涝的环流特征分析及厄尔尼诺和海温对旱涝的影响

对江西夏季（ 6～ 8月）旱涝的同期北半球 500 hPa环流特征进行分析,得出了多雨年和少雨年在东亚不同的环流型;指出鄂霍茨克海阻高和西太平洋副高是影响江西夏季旱涝的主要天气系统;并进一步分析了厄尔尼诺和赤道东太平洋海温对我省夏季降水的影响,对影响的机理作了粗浅的探讨。     

季节冻土对土钉支护的影响

川藏交通廊道规划路线沿线滑坡锚固工程在全生命周期内将不可避免受到季节性冻土冻胀融缩的不利影响。为减缓此不利影响,本文提出基于多个挤压摩擦型屈服套的屈服装置、消能蓄能型碟簧系统,形成可双向调节预应力的锚索新结构。并对该锚索进行室内张拉试验、极限承载力试验及工作机理研究,成功研制吨位500 kN级、行程100 mm的双向调节预应力锚索。室内试验证实,单个挤压摩擦型屈服套起始屈服力为120~135 kN,平稳行程可达255 mm;屈服装置由4个挤压摩擦型屈服套及P锚组成,起始屈服力为420~450 kN,行程可达到100 mm以上;碟簧系统可实现耗能(冻胀时可抵消约60%的预应力增长)与蓄能(融缩时可抵消约40%的预应力损失)的目的。屈服行程完结后,双向调节预应力锚索极限承载力为1050kN,与传统锚索极限承载力相当。该新型锚索起始屈服力及行程具有较好的可拓展性,性能参数优于市场同类产品,可用于冻融环境及地震、大变形情形下的滑坡边坡加固,为川藏交通廊道沿线季节性冻土区滑坡、边坡防护提供了一种新的解决方案。     

气候变化背景下湖北省高温干旱复合灾害变化特征

利用湖北省76个国家气象站1961—2022年地面气象观测资料,基于气象干旱综合监测指数(Meteorological Drought Composite Index,MCI)和有效降水指数(Effective Precipitation,EP)识别湖北省历年干旱和洪涝过程,分析近62 a旱涝过程频次时空变化和旱涝年、旱涝转换特征以及2010年以来旱涝特点。结果表明：湖北省旱涝频发区总体呈东涝西旱、南涝北旱的片状分布。干旱和暴雨洪涝发生频次分别呈现波动式下降、上升趋势。干旱主要发生在春季和伏秋季,发生频次总体呈减少趋势,但夏秋干旱以及极端干旱有趋多增强的态势;暴雨洪涝主要集中在夏季,发生频次呈增多趋势。旱涝年年际间呈现连旱2~4 a、连涝2~3 a或旱涝交替的特征,部分年份年内旱涝并存、旱涝急转,2010年以来无旱涝并存年。旱涝转换站数年际间波动较大,呈现5个阶段性上升特征,各递增阶段最大站数呈递减趋势。2010年以来旱涝呈现极端性增强、骤发性增多及连旱连涝的特点。

     

山东省近600年旱涝时间分形特征

通过对历史资料的整编。建立了山东省１２个地区近６００年旱涝等级序列，提出了数据序列灾变时间分维数计算的方法与步骤，计算各地区人旱、偏旱、正常、偏涝、大涝５种级别的序列分维数，讨论了全省旱涝演变的构型特征。     

中国南方调整水稻种植格局——一种水稻生产预先适应气候变化的选择(英文)

Rice planted in southern China accounts for 94% of the total in sown acreage and 88% of the total in production, which matters a lot to Chinese food security. However, due to the prolonged conflict between water availability and rice growth in spatial/temporal distribu-tion, rice production suffers from seasonal drought at acreage of 16%-22%, which compro-mises food production capacity and food security. Focusing on the spatial distribution of seasonal drought with rice and the practices to adapt to it, and based on an analysis of bal-anced water supply for and demand by rice at a growing season scale during 1981-2030, this paper assesses the changing seasonal drought in the process of rice production under the changing climate in the future, and identifies general rice re-cultivation options for climate change adaptation. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows. (1) Rice suggests a decline in seasonal drought, with early season rice (early rice hereafter) by 12,500 km2, middle season rice (middle rice) by 80,000 km2, and in particular late season rice (late rice) by 25,000 km2, which accounts for almost 20% of its cultivated acreage. It is indicated that due to climate change, seasonal drought in major rice producing areas tends to alleviate in general, late season rice in particular. (2) Future climate change brings about a significant impact on the spatial/temporal distribution of water resources in rice producing areas in China. Based on ’pre-designed’ adaptation actions for rice-re-cultivation, the rice cultivation pattern undergoes a significant alteration between 1981-2000 and 2001-2030. In eastern Guizhou and western Hunan, the pattern of single early plus single dry farming is changed into double cropping. In eastern Hunan, the pattern of dry cropping is changed into single early plus single dry farming. In northern Anhui, the pattern of dry farming cropping is changed into middle rice. All this is aimed at a potential adequate availability of water for rice production in the future. (3) Rice re-cultivation patterns developed in this paper help re-balance water demand and supply for rice growth using the spatial analysis tool to adapt rice growth to the changing water avail-ability from spatial perspective, and come up with rice producer-friendly re-cultivation options in response to climate change.     

“过去300年中国东部季风区雨带进退图谱与模拟诊断”研究进展

“中国季风环境在不同时间尺度上的演化历史及其驱动机制”是我国全球变化研究所关注的核心科学问题之一。为深入系统地开展对这一问题的研究,国家自然科学基金委员会的《全球变化及其区域响应科学研究计划》在“十五”期间陆续启动了一系列重点项目,“过去300年中国东部季风区雨带进退图谱与模拟诊断”项目（编号40331013,2004年初起实施）就是其中之一。本项目旨在利用丰富的清代雨雪档案记载,重建1736年以来黄河中下游地区与江淮流域35⁴0个站点时间分辨率为月、季的降水序列;并分析该区域1736年以来年、年代际降水变化与雨带进退的时空特征分析,诊断该区域过去300年特征时段降水变化的成因及其动力学机理     

季节性冻融对盐荒地水盐运移的影响及调控

季节性冻融是干旱区土壤盐碱化形成的主要驱动因子,但冻融过程中土壤水盐耦合关系及热量调控机理仍不清楚。通过分析2009年11月～2010年5月新疆玛纳斯河流域典型盐荒地季节性冻融过程中土壤剖面160 cm以内的水分、盐分和温度动态变化,探讨了不同土层冻融过程中水热盐的耦合关系。结果表明：土壤最大冻结深度为150 cm左右,表土层（0～40 cm）温度与气温关系密切;土壤剖面水分呈现“C”型垂直分布,表土层和底土层（100～160 cm）含水量较大,而心土层（40～100 cm）含水量不足10%,土层平均含水率在冻融前期增加了12.91%,而在初蒸期减少了10.01%;土壤剖面盐分在冻结期和初蒸期表聚作用明显,心土层和底土层含盐量稳定,土壤剖面含盐量表现为“积盐-脱盐-再积盐”的变化过程。水热盐之间具有高度协同性,心土层和底土层表现为水盐相随、而表土层为水去盐留的耦合特征,热量传输是调控水盐运移的关键因素。     

北京郊区乡村旅游季节性特征及其影响因素

京郊地区乡村旅游发展迅速,已成为北京居民重要的休闲旅游目的地。本研究以2008-2010 年京郊乡村地区的旅游统计数据为基础,采用月度指数、快速样本聚类法和基尼指数等指标及方法,分析并测定京郊地区乡村旅游的月度分布特征、旅游季节划分以及旅游季节性强度等季节性特征。基础数据分析结果显示:京郊乡村旅游的季节性特征明显,在全年范围内形成旺季、平季和淡季3 个旅游季节,其中4-5 月、7-8 月和10 月是3 个旅游旺季,11 月到来年1 月是旅游淡季,其余月份为平季。然后,从自然因素(地理条件、气候条件)和社会因素(公共假日、社会关系和节事活动)等2 个主要方面入手,阐释了京郊地区乡村旅游季节性特征的影响因素,指出相对静态(可调节性较弱)的公共假日和相对动态(可调节性较强)的节事活动是京郊地区乡村旅游季节性特征的主要成因。     

基于ROMS模式利用集合最优插值同化沿轨海表面高度异常数据的研究

The ensemble optimal interpolation （EnOI） is applied to the regional ocean modeling system （ROMS） with the ability to assimilate the along-track sea level anomaly （TSLA）. This system is tested with an eddy-resolving system of the South China Sea （SCS）. Background errors are derived from a running seasonal ensemble to account for the seasonal variability within the SCS. A fifth-order localization function with a 250 km localization radius is chosen to reduce the negative effects of sampling errors. The data assimilation system is tested from January 2004 to December 2006. The results show that the root mean square deviation （RMSD） of the sea level anomaly decreased from 10.57 to 6.70 cm, which represents a 36.6% reduction of error. The data assimilation reduces error for temperature within the upper 800 m and for salinity within the upper 200 m, although error degrades slightly at deeper depths. Surface currents are in better agreement with trajectories of surface drifters after data assimilation. The variance of sea level improves significantly in terms of both the amplitude and position of the strong and weak variance regions after assimilating TSLA. Results with AGE error （AGE） perform better than no AGE error （NoAGE） when considering the improvements of the temperature and the salinity. Furthermore, reasons for the extremely strong variability in the northern SCS in high resolution models are investigated. The results demonstrate that the strong variability of sea level in the high resolution model is caused by an extremely strong Kuroshio intrusion. Therefore, it is demonstrated that it is necessary to assimilate the TSLA in order to better simulate the SCS with high resolution models.