多维体视方法论及其在地球科学研究中的意义

本文阐述”多维体视方法论”,主张立体透视与动态、多维地看问题;它起源于医学CT(计算机层析学)透视成像、核磁共振(MRI)等体视学方法研究疾病的生理解剖结构、病理特征、监测人体有关器官的各种变化,是行之有效的方法;已成功地应用于检测工业器械、航天器及地下结构等物体的内部结构,从而发展和演绎出来的认识论方法。在医学领域将CT、MRI所得二维信息和断面图像、对病灶区引入“体显示”和“面显示”等可视化技术,将能充分反映不同疾病的病理、药理特征;在航天、地学等领域同样应用着CT多维“可视化技术”。本文试图发扬综合预测的学术思想,将医学临床应用CT、核磁共振、体视学方法结合研究其他制约因素指标,从而区分出疾病的原发、继发分期,导致绝症的进程和前兆,概括为“多维体视预测方法”;也适用于地震孕育、强震发生与火山喷发预测的研究。     

Discussion of Some Problems in the Research into the Seismotectonics of Strong Earthquakes on the North China Plain

The tectonic characteristics and research problems of five earthquakes with M≥7.0 on the North China Plain over the last 300 years are addressed in the paper, including the cognition that there were no ground fractures in the 1966 Xingtai earthquake, the question caused by the thrust activity of the seismic fault of the Tangshan Earthquake and the discussion of the seismotectonic environment of the 1830 Cixian earthquake and the 1937 Heze earthquake. The author thinks that the main reason for the problems in research of strong earthquake tectonics in the region is that the status of activity of the main tectonics during the Late Quaternary are unknown. This affects the founding of discrimination criteria for seismotectonics of strong earthquakes on the North China Plain. Discriminating the Holocene active faults from the large number of faults is the most effective method for seismic hazard assessment in the area in future.     

区域旱涝气候混沌动力学可预报性研究

根据西安地区旱涝气候等级近1624a（380-2003年）资料序列,运用非线性系统混沌动力学理论,通过计算气候吸引子的关联维数、Kolmogorov熵和Lyapunov指数,对西安区域旱涝气候的混沌特性和可预报性进行研究。结果表明：西安区域旱涝气候系统是一个具有有限个自由度的复杂的混沌系统。其吸引子关联维数约为3．1,确定性的平均可预报时间尺度约为14．8a,最大可预报时间尺度约为20．7a。     

地貌学的基本范式及其在教学科研中的作用

自吉尔伯特和戴维斯的时代开始,地貌学的研究即已遵从理论优先的观察背负模式。从以描述为主的侵蚀循环学说、强调定量分析的地表过程、水力几何学到目前系统地貌学的研究,此中充盈着大量的范式、原理和基本概念,它们是地貌学作为一门科学存在和发展的理论基础。在课堂教学与课程发展层面上,从地貌学史的角度注重对基本范式的归纳和讲授,是培养与激发学生学习兴趣和专业素养的主要途径。通过对经典文献的研读,学生可以从中直接学习到详尽地描述和思辨方法,同时还会意识到对地貌学思想的传承和理论的接受应该批判地进行。在学科建设和科学研究方面,基于范式研究是利用共同的学术语言融入国际地貌学界的前提,凝练学科整体关心的科学问题,开展有组织持续有效的基础理论研究,是复兴国内地貌学的最佳途径。     

基于可公度性网络分析的淮河蚌埠站大洪水预测研究

根据1916—2010年淮河蚌埠水文站大洪水资料,运用信息预测理论,构建大洪水可公度有序网络结构,同时采用峰谷定位法、前兆法等方法对淮河大洪水进行综合分析和预测.结果表明:2013—2014年淮河(蚌埠站)将有可能发生大洪水.     

中国季降水量的气候噪声和潜在可预报性估计

利用中国130个测站1961—2004年的日降水量资料,使用低频白噪声延伸法和方差分析法估计了中国季降水量的气候噪声方差和潜在可预报性。结果表明：中国季降水量的气候噪声方差由南向北、由沿海向内陆逐渐减小,且有明显的季节变化,夏季最高,其次是春秋季,冬季最小,而且内陆的季节变化比东南沿海的季节变化显著。季降水量的潜在可预报性有较大的季节和区域差异,但总体来说,全国大部分地区的季降水量是潜在可预报的。以绝对误差小于均方差0.68倍作为预测正确标准,全国大部分地区季降水量的预报正确率上限为50%-60%。     

自忆预报模式中记忆特性的探讨

运用有限振幅斜压波的截谱方程对自忆模式中的的记忆性进行了理论探讨。推导了相应的自忆性方程,在给定记忆函数呈线性和指数衰减型时求出了它的解析解,并讨论了这些解的物理意义和预报含意;证明了零解自忆性方程与记忆函数形式无关。通过计算遗忘因子,对动力可预报性和回溯阶等问题进行了讨论,并指出可将其统一纳入大气记忆理论的框架中。     

Testing the Ability of Numerical Model to Simulate Climate and Its Change With 4D-EOF Analysis

The four-dimensional empirical orthogonal function (4D-EOF), which in reality is a simple combination of three-dimensional EOF (3D-EOF) and extended EOF (EEOF), is put forward in this paper to test the ability of numerical model to simulate climate and its change. The 4D-E0F analysis is able to reveal not only the horizontal characteristic pattern of analyzed variable, and its corresponding annual and inter-annual variations, but also the vertical structural characteristics. The method suggested is then used to analyze the monthly mean 100-, 500-, 70G-, and 1000-hPa geopotential height fields (4941 grids and grid spacing 60 km) and their anomaly fields in 1989-1998 simulated by the MM5V3 from the RMIP (Regional Climate Model Inter-comparison Project for East Asia)-II, as well as their counterparts (used as the observed fields) from the NCEP/NCAR re-analysis dataset in the same period. The ability of MM5V3 in simulating East Asian climate and its change is tested by comparing the 4D-EOF analysis results of the simulated and observed datasets. The comparative analyzed results show that the horizontal pattern of the first eigenvector of the observed monthly mean geopotential height fields and its vertical equivalent barotropic feature were well simulated; the simulations of the first two eigenvectors of the observed monthly mean geopotential height anomaly fields were also successful for their horizontal abnormal distributions and significant equivalent barotropic features in the vertical were well reproduced; and furthermore, the observed characteristics, such as the variation with height, the annual and inter-annual variations of the monthly mean geopotential height/anomaly fields were also well reflected in the simulation. Therefore, the 4D-EOF is able to comprehensively test numerical model's ability of simulating the climate and its change, and the simulation ability of MM5V3 for the climate and its change in East Asia in the 1990s was satisfactory.     

关于吉林省积云人工增雨作业的一些思考

积云含水量较高,特别是其催化的可播性和降水的高效性更是目前人工增雨作业的关键所在,本文试图从积云降水的原理出发探讨积云人工增雨作业的可播性和其增雨的高效性,结合吉林省人工增雨作业的实际情况,得出一套适合于吉林省积云人工增雨作业的应用方案。     

杭州地区大气水分特征及相关问题的初步探讨

用1951年1月至2003年12月NCEP/NCAR再分析格点比湿、垂直速度资料,以及杭州站降水量资料,分析了杭州地区对流层整层可降水量、低层空气垂直上升运动强度以及地面降水量的演变特点。结果发现,可降水量与低层空气垂直上升运动具有显著的年代际变化,且这两者均利于降水的时段,降水量不一定偏多,这说明空中水资源具有很大的开发空间。对杭州6月大气可降水量的长期变化特征与全球同纬度地区作了对比,发现近53年来,杭州地区6月份降水量处于下降趋势。