江门市年最大风速变化特征分析

为了更好的了解江门市年最大风速的变化特征,利用欧洲中尺度天气预测中心(ECWMF)提供的1979-2012年每天8个时次地面(10m高度)阵风后处理资料,通过Mann-Kendall突变检验和经验正交函数(EOF)分解等方法,统计分析了江门市年最大风速的变化趋势及时空分布特征。结果表明:(1)该地区年最大风速一般介于20-30m/s,呈线性上升趋势,并在2003年左右发生了突变。(2)江门市年最大风速出现的季节主要是在夏季和秋季。(3)江门市年最大风速的时空变化存在两种主模态,他们分别可以解释总方差的76.0%和9.0%。第1模态在空间上表现为全区一致性,从21世纪初至今呈现显著的2~4年的变化周期;第2模态在空间上呈现出东北-西南反向型,同样在21世纪初期存在明显的2年和4年年际变化信号。     

近百年江苏中部和西部地区气温趋势及其变化率估计

本文探讨苏中和苏南地区气温长期变化趋势的阶段特征,着重研究各不同时期气温趋势的显著性和置信区间,结果表明：（１）近百年该区气温有显著的上升趋势,且与北半球总变化趋势基本一致;（Ⅱ）除冬季以外,本区经历了两次升温和两次降温时期,各不同阶段具有不同的趋势特征;（Ⅲ）近百年气温最高的十年,除了夏季出现在本世纪６０年代外,其余各季及全年平均都再现在本世纪４０年代,这一特点与北半球最暖的十年出现于８０年代以     

参加第3届区域气候模式理论和应用研讨会总结

2006年5月29日至6月9日，由国际理论物理研究中心（The Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics，ICTP）主办的第3届区域气候模式理论和应用研讨会（Third ICTP Workshop on the Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models），在意大利的滨海城市的里雅斯特（Trieste，ICTP的所在地）举行。与会人员包括来自不同国家的140余名专家、学者和学员。高学杰研究员代表国家气候中心，是会议的5名组织者之一，与国家气候中心徐影博士，研究生张冬峰、石英、曹丽娟，访问学者徐集云（浙江省气象局）参加了会议。中国农业科学院、中国科学院大气物理研究所等单位的专家和研究生也应邀参加了会议。     

Inter-Comparison of lO-year Precipitation Simulated by Several RCMs for Asia

In phase Ⅱ of the Regional Climate Model Inter-comparison Project （RMIP） for Asia, the regional climate has been simulated for July 1988 through December 1998 by five regional climate models and one global variable resolution model. Comparison of the 10-year simulated precipitation with the observations was carried out. The results show that most models have the capacity to reproduce the basic spatial pattern of precipitation for Asia, and the main rainbelt can be reproduced by most models, but there are distinctions in the location and the intensity. Most models overestimate the precipitation over most continental regions. Interannual variability of the precipitation can also be basically simulated, while differences exist between various models and the observations. The biases in the stream field are important reasons behind the simulation errors of the Regional Climate Models （RCMs）. The cumulus scheme and land surface process have large influences on the precipitation simulation. Generally, the Grell cumulus scheme produces more precipitation than the Kuo scheme.     

Impact of Anthropogenic Heat Release on Regional Climate in Three Vast Urban Agglomerations in China简

We simulated the impact of anthropogenic heat release （AHR） on the regional climate in three vast city agglomerations in China using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with nested high-resolution modeling.Based on energy consumption and high-quality land use data,we designed two scenarios to represent no-AHR and current-AHR conditions.By comparing the results of the two numerical experiments,changes of surface air temperature and precipitation due to AHR were quantified and analyzed.We concluded that AHR increases the temperature in these urbanized areas by about 0.5℃-1℃,and this increase is more pronounced in winter than in other seasons.The inclusion of AHR enhances the convergence of water vapor over urbanized areas.Together with the warming of the lower troposphere and the enhancement of ascending motions caused by AHR,the average convective available potential energy in urbanized areas is increased.Rainfall amounts in summer over urbanized areas are likely to increase and regional precipitation patterns to be altered to some extent.     

CSU－RAMS模式在区域气侯模拟中的应用

将ＣＳＵ－ＲＡＭＳ（中尺度）数值模式改造成“区域气候数值模式”以及进行区域气候数值模拟的试验研究。说明将有限区域中尺度数值模式与ＧＣＭ模式嵌套应用到区域气候数值模拟研究上能够取得有意义的结果。它能在一定程度上改善ＧＣＭ模式的不足。可以更为细致地描述大气环流的变化特征,是了解区域气候变化的有效方法之一。     

华南地区城市化对区域气候变化的影响

按照人口数将华南地区站点分为大城市站、一般城市站、郊区站,并利用华南地区1960~2011年的站点观测资料分别计算了3类站点年平均、季节平均的气温、高温日数、降水、相对湿度、风速、日照时数距平序列的变化,分析了城市化对华南地区区域气候的影响。结果表明:相较于背景场,大城市的平均气温有更明显的上升趋势;高温日数在3类站点中均有增加的趋势,在城市化的影响下,大城市的高温日数有明显的增加;平均气温日较差在整个华南地区均有下降趋势,特别是在大城市中。在3类站点中,降雨总量均有减少的趋势,且降雨更多的以中雨及以上的形式表现。该地区的相对湿度、风速、日照时数均呈现减少趋势,在城市化影响下,大城市的相对湿度、风速、日照时数均有明显的减少。华南地区处于我国最大的城市群之一——珠江三角洲地区,同时处于气候系统复杂的热带季风区,因此有必要研究城市化对该地区多个气象变量的可能影响。     

季节尺度区域气候模拟适应调整时间选取问题的数值试验

文中利用区域气候模式RegCM3,以1998年夏季中国异常气候事件为例,对季节尺度区域气候模拟适应调整时间的选取问题进行了数值研究.共做了11个试验,每个试验的适应调整时间最短为10d,最长为6个月,以检验适应调整时间长短对夏季中国异常气候事件模拟结果的影响.结果表明:对于大气变量而言,模式通常在经过4-8 d的适应调整时间后,就进入\     

Study on the Effects of Land Surface Heterogeneitiesin Temperature and Moisture on Annual Scale Regional Climate Simulation

The ``combined approach', which is suitable to represent subgrid landsurface heterogeneity in both inter-patch and intra-patch variabilities, isemployed in the Biosphere/Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) as a landsurface component of the regional climate model RegCM3 to consider theheterogeneities in temperature and moisture at the land surface, and thenannual-scale simulations for 5 years (1988--1992) were conducted. Resultsshowed that on the annual scale, the models response to the heterogeneitiesis quite sensitive, and that the effect of the temperature heterogeneity(TH) is more pronounced than the moisture heterogeneity (MH). On theintraannual scale, TH may lead to more (less) precipitation in warm (cold)seasons, and hence lead to larger intraannual variability in precipitation;the major MH effects may be lagged by about 1 month during the warm, rainyseasons, inducing ～6% more precipitation for some sub-regions.Additionally, the modeled climate for the northern sub-regions shows largersensitivities to the land surface heterogeneities than those for thesouthern sub-regions. Since state-of-art land surface models seldom accountfor surface intra-patch variabilities, this study emphasizes the importanceof including this kind of variability in the land surface models.     

10年时间尺度气候预测

<正>10年时间尺度的气候预测,由于能够提供给政策制定者和有关部门与单位近期的气候变化预测,作为经济规划和社会生活安排等的参考,因此越来越受到重视。10年气候预测是气候科学中一个新的领域,一般预测方法采用:一是统计预测方法,根据前期气候变化特征,利用统计关系,计算预测未来10年的气候变化;二是动力模式预测方法,利用全球或区域气候模式,在一定初边条件和外强迫作用下,预测未来10年的气候变化;三是动力加统计