CMIP5模式对北极涛动的模拟评估

基于国际耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)历史试验(historical)的输出结果,评估了26个耦合模式对北极涛动(AO)的模拟能力。对各模式逐月AO指数序列的功率谱分析表明,有23个模式能够模拟出AO模态无显著变化周期的特征。这些模式也能够较好地再现冬季AO在海平面气压场上的主要分布特征,但均高估了AO模态的强度。对于伴随着冬季AO位相变化而出现的中高纬度偶极型的纬向平均纬向风异常,CMIP5中只有一些模式有较好的模拟表现,大多数模式对其中心位置和强度的模拟存在明显不足。对比之下,MPI-ESM-P对AO时空特征的模拟更接近观测结果。     

CMIP5模式对春季北极涛动影响后期冬季ENSO不对称性的模拟能力分析

根据观测资料的研究指出春季北极涛动(Arctic Oscillation, AO)对随后冬季厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Nino–Southern Oscillation, ENSO)的影响具有明显不对称性。春季AO处于正位相时,它对随后冬季厄尔尼诺(El Nino)事件的影响显著,然而春季AO负位相对随后冬季拉尼娜(La Nina)的影响不明显。本研究分析了30个来自CMIP5的耦合模式对春季AO与随后冬季ENSO不对称性关系的模拟能力。30个CMIP5耦合模式中,只有CNRM-CM5和GISS-E2-H-CC模式能较好地抓住春季AO与冬季ENSO的联系。进一步分析这两个模式中春季AO与冬季ENSO的不对称性关系,发现CNRM-CM5模式能较好地再现春季AO与冬季ENSO的非对称关系,即春季AO正(负)位相会导致赤道中东太平洋出现El Nino(La Nina)型海表温度增暖(冷却)。然而,GISS-E2-H-CC模式的模拟结果显示,春季AO对随后冬季ENSO的影响是对称的。本文随后解释了CNRM-CM5(GISS-E2-H-CC)模式能(不能)模拟出春季AO与冬季ENSO不对称关系的原因。对于CNRMCM5模式,在春季AO正位相年,副热带西北太平洋上空存在明显的异常气旋和正降水异常,正降水异常通过Gill型大气响应对赤道西太平洋异常西风的形成和维持起着重要作用,异常西风通过激发向东传播的暖赤道Kelvin波对随后冬季El Nino事件的发生产生显著的影响;然而,在春季AO负位相年,副热带北太平洋的异常反气旋和负降水异常较弱,导致赤道西太平洋的异常东风不明显,因此,春季AO负异常对随后冬季La Nina的影响不显著。所以,CNRM-CM5模式能够较好地抓住春季AO对随后冬季ENSO事件的非对称性影响。相比之下,对于GISS-E2-H-CC模式,春季AO正(负)位相年副热带西北太平洋上存在显著的正(负)降水异常,通过Gill型大气响应在赤道西太平洋激发出明显的异常西(东)风从而影响随后冬季的El Nino(La Nina)事件。因此,在GISS-E2-H-CC模式中,春季AO对随后冬季ENSO具有对称性影响。另外,模式捕捉春季AO对随后冬季ENSO非对称性影响的能力与模式对春季AO空间结构的模拟能力有一定的联系。     

渤海海湾纳潮量现状卫星遥感调查与分析

利用14景环境与灾害监测预报星(HJ-1A/1B)CCD相机卫星数据,提取不同潮位下渤海海湾的水域面积.结合潮汐订正的方法,计算获得了2010年辽东湾、渤海湾和莱州湾的纳潮量分别为9.32x1010m3、3.03x1010m3和0.54×1010m3.计算结果将为渤海动力学研究提供参考.     

北疆西部近50 a来气候、水文变化趋势及其与北大西洋/北极涛动的关系

 根据北疆西部11个气象站点1957—2007气象资料,主要代表性河流1960—2006年流量数据以及1957—2007年NAO和AO时间序列数据,采用趋势分析,Mann-Kendall检验以及相关分析等方法,研究了北疆西部地区近50 a来气候、水文的变化趋势,分析了气候变化对径流的影响,初步探讨了NAO和AO对区域气候变化的影响。研究结果表明,近50 a来,北疆西部地区增温、增湿显著,但二者变化幅度存在季节差异。受气候变化的影响,奎屯河年径流量表现出显著增加趋势。进一步分析发现,奎屯河、四棵树河年径流量的变化主要受温度因子控制,卡琅古尔河、精河和博尔塔拉河的年径流量则主要受降水因子控制。研究表明,艾比湖水域面积同样受气候变化的影响,尤其是与年降水量增加紧密相关,二者相关系数为0.584。相关分析证实NAO和AO确实对北疆西部地区的气候变化具有显著影响。具体体现在,NAO和AO显著的影响研究区冬季温度和全年的温度变化;NAO对整个区域年降水具有显著影响。温度比降水对NAO和AO的响应更敏感。     

北极航道海运网络的国家权益格局复杂特征研究

北极航道海运网络的国家权益系统可以抽象为由相关权益国家构成的复杂网络,这个网络的结构和性质对研究北极航道海运网络国家权益格局具有重要意义.在提出北极航道海运网络国家权益格局涵义的基础上,对北极航道国家权益网络表现出的复杂特性进行了分析,并对其表现出来的一些不符合典型复杂网络统计特征的现象进行了解释,可为今后我国政府的北...     

Photometric Monitoring of ROSAT-Selected Weak Line T Tauri Stars

We monitored the light curves of 22 weak-line T Tauri stars (WTTSs) discovered among the X-ray sources in the field of the Taurus-Auriga cloud. For 12 of the 22 WTTSs photometric periodic variability is confirmed and their rational periods are determined using Phase Dispersion Minimization (PDM) and Fourier analysis. Most of them are found to have periods shorter than one day. This gives further evidence for the spin up of solar-type stars predicted by the models of angular momentum evolution of pre-main sequence stars.     

Do Radio-loud Active Galactic Nuclei really follow the same MBH-σ＊ Relation as Normal Galaxies？

In an examination of the relationship between the black hole mass MBH and stellar velocity dispersionσ* in radio-loud active galactic nuclei (AGNs), we studied two effects which may cause uncertainties in the black hole mass estimates of radio-loud AGNs: the relativistic beaming effect on the observed optical continuum radiation and the orientation effect on the broad emission line width. After correcting these two effects, we re-examined the MBH-σ[OIII] relation for a sample of radio-loud and radio-quiet AGNs, and found the relation for radio-loud AGNs still deviated from that for nearby normal galaxies and radio-quiet AGNs. We also found there is no significant correlation between radio jet power and narrow [OIII] line width, indicating absence of strong interaction between radio jet and narrow line region. It may be that the deviation of the MBH-σ* relation of radio-loud AGNs is intrinsic, or that the [OIII] line width is not a good indicator ofσ* for radio-loud AGNs.     

Abundance, biomass and composition of spring ice algal and phytoplankton communities of the Laptev Sea （Arctic）

Abundance,biomass and composition of the ice algal and phytoplank-ton communities were investigated in the southeastern Laptev Sea in spring 1999.Diatoms dominated the algal communities and pennate diatoms dominated the dia-tom population.12 dominant algal species occurred within sea ice and underlyingwater column,including Fragilariopsis oceanica,F.cylindrus,Nitzschiafrigida,N.promare,Achnanthes taeniata,Nitzschia neofrigida,Naviculapelagica,N.vanhoef fenii,N.septentrionalis,Melosira arctica,Clindrothecaclosterium and Pyrarnimonas sp.The algal abundance of bottom 10 cm sea icevaried between 14.6 and 1562.2×10~4 ceils l~(-1)with an average of 639.0×10~4cells l~(-1),and the algal biomass ranged from 7.89 to 2093.5μg C l~(-1)with an av-erage of 886.9μg C l~(-1),which were generally one order of magnitude higherthan those of sub-bottom ice and two orders of magnitude higher than those ofunderlying surface water.The integrated algal abundance and biomass of lower-most 20 cm ice column were averagely 7.7 and 12.2 times as those of upper 20 mwater column,respectively,suggesting that the ice algae might play an importantrole in maintaining the coastal marine ecosystem before the thawing of sea ice.Icealgae influenced the phytoplankton community of the underlying water column.However,the“seeding”of ice algae for phytoplankton bloom was negligible be-cause of the iow phytoplankton biomass within the underlying water column.     

报警!北极冰山消融到达临界点？（下）

来自北极的信息表明,气候系统还有时间阻止非线性最坏可能结果的出现。虽然现在可能已经无法阻止海冰面积继续收缩,但是仍存在摆脱危险的可能性。