黑河流域土地利用变化对土壤有机碳和全氮储量的影响——元分析（英文）

Land use and cover change(LUCC) is an important indicator of the human-earth system under climate/environmental change,which also serves as a key impact factor of carbon balance,and a major source/sink of soil carbon cycles.The Heihe River Basin(HRB) is known as a typical ecologically fragile area in the arid/semi-arid regions of northwestern China,which makes it more sensitive to the LUCC.However,its sensitivity varies in a broad range of controlling factors,such as soil layers,LUCCs and calculation methods(e.g.the fixed depth method,FD,and the equivalent mass method,ESM).In this study,we performed a meta-analysis to assess the response of soil organic carbon(SOC) and total nitrogen(TN) storage to the LUCC as well as method bias based on 383 sets of SOC data and 148 sets of TN data from the HRB.We first evaluated the calculation methods and found that based on the FD method,the LUCC caused SOC and TN storage to decrease by 17.39% and 14.27%,respectively;while the losses estimated using the ESM method were 19.31% and 18.52%,respectively.The deviations between two methods were mainly due to the fact that the FD method ignores the heterogeneity of soil bulk density(BD),which may underestimate the results subsequently.We then analyzed the response of SOC and TN storage to various types of the LUCC.In particular,when woodland and grassland were converted into cultivated land or other land types,SOC and TN suffered from heavy losses,while other LUCCs had minor influences.Finally,we showed that increasing the depth of the soil layers would reduce the losses of SOC and TN storage.In summary,we identified a series of controlling factors(e.g.soil layer,the LUCC and calculation method) to evaluate the impact of the LUCC on SOC and TN storage in the HRB,which should be considered in future research.     

气候变化对中国观鸟旅游的影响——基于鸟类物候变化的分析

全球观鸟活动的规模达到了每年几千万人次,观鸟旅游已经成为世界野生动物观赏业的重要组成部分。气候变化改变了鸟类物候期及其空间格局,这不仅会影响观鸟者的旅游活动,还会进一步对观鸟旅游利益相关者的生计产生影响。监测并尽早地识别出这些影响,提醒利益相关者采取有效的适应策略意义重大。本文引入物候期这一气候变化的"指示器"来反映开展观鸟旅游的重要资源基础——鸟类活动时间以及栖息地格局的变化。通过对1980-2010年中国26个地区的98个物候序列的鸟类研究进行荟萃分析发现:中国鸟类离开、抵达、停留时间以及鸟类栖息地的格局都已经发生了改变。春季、夏季鸟类会提前离开或抵达,但在秋季它们的活动会延迟。鸟类停留的时间主要呈现延长的趋势。温度升高会使鸟类停留时间变长,对观鸟旅游的开展有利。中国低纬度地区和西部地区鸟类停留时间更长。鸟类栖息地的格局呈现出向北和向西迁移的特征。游客和景区工作人员均已感知到鸟类活动时间以及栖息地格局的变化对观鸟旅游产生的影响。     

Ocean acidification: Separating evidence from judgment – A reply to Dupont et al.

Recently ocean acidification as a major threat for marine species has moved from a consensus statement into a much discussed and even challenged conception. A simple meta-analysis of Hendriks et al. (2010) showed that based on results of pooled experimental evidence, marine biota may turn out to be more resistant than hitherto believed. Dupont et al. (in press) indicate the importance of evaluating the most vulnerable stages in the life cycle of organisms instead of only adult stages. Here we evaluate additional material, composed of experimental evidence of the effect of ocean acidification on marine organisms during adult, larval, and juvenile stages, and show that the observed effects are within the range predicted by Hendriks et al. (2010). Species-specific differences and a wide variance in the reaction of organisms might obscure patterns of differences between life stages. Future research should be aimed to clarify underlying mechanisms to define the effect ocean acidification will have on marine biodiversity. Conveying scientific evidence along with an open acknowledgment of uncertainties to help separate evidence from judgment should not harm the need to act to mitigate ocean acidification and should pave the road for robust progress in our understanding of how ocean acidification impacts biota of the ocean.     

What meta-analysis can tell us about vulnerability of marine biodiversity to ocean acidification?

Ocean acidification has been proposed as a major threat for marine biodiversity. Hendriks et al. [Hendriks, I.E., Duarte, C.M., Alvarez, M., 2010. Vulnerability of marine biodiversity to ocean acidification: a meta-analysis. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, doi:10.1016/j.ecss.2009.11.022.] proposed an alternative view and suggested, based on a meta-analysis, that marine biota may be far more resistant to ocean acidification than hitherto believed. However, such a meta-analytical approach can mask more subtle features, for example differing sensitivities during the life-cycle of an organism. Using a similar metric on an echinoderm database, we show that key bottlenecks present in the life-cycle (e.g. larvae being more vulnerable than adults) and responsible for driving the whole species response may be hidden in a global meta-analysis. Our data illustrate that any ecological meta-analysis should be hypothesis driven, taking into account the complexity of biological systems, including all life-cycle stages and key biological processes. Available data allow us to conclude that near-future ocean acidification can/will have dramatic negative impact on some marine species, including echinoderms, with likely consequences at the ecosystem level.     

Stormwater control impacts on runoff volume and peak flow: A meta-analysis of watershed modelling studies

Decades of research has concluded that the percent of impervious surface cover in a watershed is strongly linked to negative impacts on urban stream health. Recently, there has been a push by municipalities to offset these effects by installing structural stormwater control measures (SCMs), which are landscape features designed to retain and reduce runoff to mitigate the effects of urbanisation on event hydrology. The goal of this study is to build generalisable relationships between the level of SCM implementation in urban watersheds and resulting changes to hydrology. A literature review of 185 peer-reviewed studies of watershed-scale SCM implementation across the globe was used to identify 52 modelling studies suitable for a meta-analysis to build statistical relationships between SCM implementation and hydrologic change. Hydrologic change is quantified as the percent reduction in storm event runoff volume and peak flow between a watershed with SCMs relative to a (near) identical control watershed without SCMs. Results show that for each additional 1% of SCM-mitigated impervious area in a watershed, there is an additional 0.43% reduction in runoff and a 0.60% reduction in peak flow. Values of SCM implementation required to produce a change in water quantity metrics were identified at varying levels of probability. For example, there is a 90% probability (high confidence) of at least a 1% reduction in peak flow with mitigation of 33% of impervious surfaces. However, as the reduction target increases or mitigated impervious surface decreases, the probability of reaching the reduction target also decreases. These relationships can be used by managers to plan SCM implementation at the watershed scale.     

Exploring the marine biotic index (AMBI): variations on a theme by Ángel Borja

The results of manipulating the input data to AMBI are explored using various transformations of numerical species abundance (NAMBI), biomass (BAMBI) and production (PAMBI) from a variety of stations on the NE Atlantic shelf at which the pollution/disturbance status is known. There is a close agreement between the proportions of species in the five AMBI ecological groups and a phylum level meta-analysis axis of increasing environmental impact. All AMBI measures provide a better monotonic relationship with the impact axis than do traditional species diversity measures, which show higher diversity at intermediate levels of disturbance. A marginally better relationship with the impact axis of the meta-analysis is achieved by a moderate (square root) transformation of the data. ‘Production’ data (an appropriate combination of abundance and biomass information) provide only a marginal improvement on abundance data, but are ecologically and functionally much more relevant. Severe transformation of the data, culminating in presence/absence, degrades the relationship with the impact axis, but if only simple species lists are available then these may still be useable in making an environmental assessment.     

近30年中国中东部地区植物分布变化

在全球气候变暖背景下,某些植物分布范围会发生明显变化。但已有研究尚未对中国中东部地区近30年来的植物分布变化进行系统总结。采用荟萃分析方法（meta-analysis）,通过搜集已发表文献中关于植物引种、植被和物种分布及其变化等数据资料,得到近15年119个植物物种的251条分布变化证据,经与《中国木本植物分布图集》中记载的原分布记录（约20世纪80年代至90年代）对比,统计了不同物种的分布范围变化,并分析了变化原因。结果表明：近30年来,统计物种中80%在水平地带上发生北移,平均移动值约为3.37°;中东部地区植物分布响应气候变化的区域集中在北亚热带常绿阔叶林—暖温带落叶阔叶林过渡带以及中温带针阔叶混交林过渡带。分析发现20世纪50年代以来中国绝大多数地区有显著的增温趋势,升温导致温暖指数（Warmth Index）增加,满足植物生长的热量需求,是植物北移的重要原因。     

1992-2017年基于荟萃分析的中国耕地撂荒时空特征

当前耕地撂荒已成为一种日益普遍的土地利用变化现象,对粮食安全和生态环境具有重要影响。为揭示1992-2017年中国耕地撂荒的时空特征及驱动机制,采用集成分析的思路,对县（市）域尺度撂荒的研究成果进行了汇总梳理,从中提取撂荒时间、位置、规模（程度）、成因等信息,并进行了荟萃分析。结果发现：1992-2017年全国范围内有撂荒记录的县（市）共165个,主要分布于南方,集中分布区呈逆时针旋转90°的“T”字型,纵轴自北至南贯穿甘肃东南部、四川东部、重庆境内,直至贵州西部和云南北部;横轴位于长江中下游地区,自西向东贯穿湖北、湖南、安徽、江西。其中,湖南、四川、安徽有撂荒记录的县（市）数量较多,分别为24个、23个、21个,其次是湖北、重庆、福建、甘肃、云南,均超过10个。“T”字型结构的形成经历两个阶段,大致以2010年为界,此前有撂荒记录的县（市）为102个,集中分布于沿长江中下游的东西向带状区域,形成横轴;此后新增63个县（市）,集中分布于自甘肃东南部至贵州西部和云南北部地区的南北向带状区域,形成纵轴。撂荒格局的形成过程与区域经济发展和产业结构调整背景下的农业劳动力析出基本同步。农业收益低和劳动力不足分别是86%和78%的县（市）撂荒形成的共性因素。     

中国人—野猪冲突时空特征及对生态系统“反服务”的启示

中国农村社会经济转型背景下,生态系统“反服务”现象频现,如何协同生态保护与社会经济发展面临巨大挑战。本文基于收集的733件典型人—野猪冲突（又称野猪“肇事”）事件资料,采用荟萃分析法研究了2000—2021年中国野猪“肇事”事件的时空分布、危害和驱动因素。在此期间,野猪“肇事”的数量、空间范围和危害程度均呈递增趋势,涉及省、市和区（县）数量分别由初期的18个、41个和67个增至近期的25个、147个和399个,相应增幅分别为39%、259%和496%。其中2005年以前野猪“肇事”集中在重庆市和湖北省中西部,之后向四周扩张,2015年以后集中在四川盆地、黄土高原、长江中下游以及长白山等丘陵山区,表现形式以破坏农作物、侵害家禽和致人伤亡为主,尤以对农作物的破坏并导致耕地撂荒最为普遍,并伴随致人伤亡事件的快速增加,约占“肇事”总数量的1/4(23.66%)。目前情况下,野猪“肇事”蔓延趋势和危害性是一种典型的生态系统“反服务”现象,这种现象的加剧是生态恢复、禁猎政策、农地与生态用地界线不清、野猪生存力强且缺少天敌等因素的综合作用结果,对撂荒地利用、农户生计改善以及区域生态安全维持已构成明显...