The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.
Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making. 相似文献
The Last Picture Show does not fall within the genre of the Western, yet the cinematic narrative mourns the loss of the iconic Westerner — a man
— and the passing of his home places that constitute the Old West. This paper is concerned with the ways in which this man
and his places are transformed along with the embryonic but inexorable emergence of the New West — and its attendant demand
for recognition of hitherto unheard voices (e.g., women, Latinos) — that accompanied significant social, cultural and political
shifts that were beginning to emerge within the country as a whole in the represented early 1950s. His represented sites of
contestation are found within the frame of the small west Texas town of Anarene, created by Larry McMurtry's novel of the
same name as the film, both of which reflect contexts of the era in which they were constructed — the mid 1960s to early 1970s.
We suggest that the film shows a great sensitivity to the ways in which particular masculinities are constituted in specific
places, to the tensions that arise from the changing nature and definitions of masculinity as they are linked to these places,
and with his sense of nostalgia and loss that accompanies his inevitable decline. But there is no clear and empowered place
for women in these new places, only a recontextualized form of a patriarchal order which is not relational and which still
maintains essentialist assumptions of gender. The Old West has taken new shape, much to the chagrin of man, but it is hardly
a New West, with its emerging and representative voices.
This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
The launch of the Euro and the location of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt initially was seen as a threat to London's pre-eminent position in European financial geographies. This paper explains why in fact this was not the case. To do this, the paper is divided in two. Firstly, it reviews the literatures that help to explain financial geographies. It is argued that we need to move away from investigating attribute properties such as financial turnover and instead examine the role of networks and interdependencies in producing financial geographies. Secondly, it identifies London's dominance and Frankfurt's growth as a complementary centre through quantitative analysis and then explains how European networks and interdependencies produce this, based on insights from interviews with investment bankers and insurance institution workers in the two cities. 相似文献
This paper argues that critical geographies of Latin America begin with an analysis of how and why the bodies and geographies of geographers themselves matter. To focus on the geographer as a producer of knowledge is not to advocate the kind of navel gazing so abhorrent to many scholars. Rather, it is an effort to call attention to and critically assess how the geographer's embodied social position and geographic location inform the production of knowledge about and representations of Latin American people and nature. To illustrate how and why bodies and geographies matter, I draw from feminist and post-colonial theory and include examples from my own experiences and those of other researchers doing fieldwork in Latin American countries. I conclude by exploring the notion of situated knowledge as a tactic that writes bodies and geographies into academic texts. Ultimately, situating knowledge represents a political intervention and contribution to the broader goals of emancipatory politics shared by critical human geographers. 相似文献
1Water LossInitiativesUnaccounted-for water(or unbilled water)has beenreceiving newscrutiny at both the state and nationallevels.For years,water conservationeffortsin Europehave emphasized reduction in water loss to a muchgreater extent thaninthe United S… 相似文献
Focusing on three neighbouring villages in Cambodia, this paper argues the need for a multi-scalar interpretation of the relationship between mobility and wealth. It analyses migrant livelihoods in both sender and receiving areas to show that single scale measurements of mobility are inappropriate in the context of translocal livelihoods because livelihoods enacted across multiple places may possess multiple values of scale and mobility, each co-existing within the same migrant lifeworld. In seeking an improved conception of these complexities, the paper has combined spatial and qualitative analysis of translocal livelihoods to highlight the linkages between mobility in multiple places. On this basis, it posits that the mobility of translocal livelihoods must be assessed at least three scales: the scale appropriate to the sending environment, the scale appropriate to the receiving environment, and the scale on which potential migrations are judged. Making use of this framework allows clear relationships to be observed between mobility and inequality in both the narratives and structures of the communities under investigation. 相似文献