东天山北麓2000多年以来的森林线与环境变化

依据吉木萨尔县泉子街乡桦树窝子和小西沟两个剖面进行高时间分辨率的孢粉分析，结合剖面岩性特征分析、历史文献记录和碳屑鉴定，揭示了天山北麓最近2000多年以来的环境变化。2000aB．P．以前，该地植被为荒漠草原；2000-1300aB．P．(50a B．C．-650A．D．)，植被为草原植被，其中1750—1400aB．P．(200—550A．D．)，植被为有少量森林的草原植被，当时气候状况较今凉湿，适宜云杉生长，使得云杉林带下移，幅度可达250m左右。当时的年均气温较今低1℃而降水量较高，是新疆历史上一个相对冷湿的环境；约1300—450a B．P．(650—1500A．D．)，植被为荒漠草原；4．50aB．P．年以来，植被为荒漠草原—草原。     

河北省粮食生产发展趋势及其地区差异

河北省2002年粮食作物播种面积为6484.4千hm2,其中小麦占37.8%,玉米39.7%;粮食、棉花、油料的种植比例为15.9:1.0:1.6。北部四地市粮食播面占全省的23.3%,南部七地市76.7%。2002年粮食总产2435.8万t,为1949年的5.2倍;粮食单产3756kg/hm2,为1949年的5.8倍;人均粮食362kg,为1949年的2.4倍。北部地区粮食总产占全省的17.2%,南部地区82.8%。据回归分析与双向差分建模分析,2010年粮食总产可达3087.5万t,粮食单产4478kg/hm2,人均粮食460kg。据灰关联分析,影响粮食总产的主要因子有:粮食单产、农副产品收购价格总指数(1978年=100)、农业机械总动力、农村用电量、农田化肥施用量与有效灌溉面积等。根据笔者预测,若2010年农业机械总动力达8989万kw,农村用电量240.8亿kwh,农田化肥施用量356.1万t,有效灌面4549.2千hm2,则其粮食单产可达4664kg/hm2;若2010年仍保持2000年小麦播面所占比例(0.387),玉米播面所占比例达0.439,则其单产可达4387kg/hm2。     

黑土的水土流失及其保育治理

黑土因其肥沃而闻名，但其退化和水土流失问题往往易被忽略。虽然在人类影响下的现代环境过程开始较晚，但黑土区的环境已发生了较大的变化。对黑土水土流失的现状进行了评价，指出了黑土保育治理的必要性与紧迫性，提出了治理保育措施。     

La vallée d'Ys : un paléoréseau hydrographique immergé en baie de Douarnenez (Finistère,France)

Interpretation of the recent high-resolution survey, CANADOU 2000, in the Bay of Douarnenez (Finistère, France) allowed us to restore the morphology of the substratum and the sedimentary filling of the bay. The Brioverian and Palaeozoic substratum reveals a well-defined network of incised valleys as results of successive emergence stages of the Bay during the Quaternary. Valleys join in a westward-widened mean valley, called Ys Valley. The present-day sedimentary fill of the bay of Douarnenez appears mainly controlled by the Holocene rise and the consecutive highstand. It comprises fluvial and estuarine deposits filling up incised valleys and marine sedimentation extending out of the incised valleys. To cite this article: G. Jouet et al., C. R. Geoscience 335 (2003).To cite this article: G. Jouet et al., C. R. Geoscience 335 (2003).     

多因素复杂系统最佳因素权重确定的一种新思路——以深港西部通道工程深圳湾公路大桥为例

为了客观地反映各因素对目标问题的影响程度,本文首次提出了最佳因素权重概念。定义最佳因素权重为研究区域内系统质量处于极限状态时的各因素权重之组合。结合深港西部通道工程深圳湾公路大桥桥址比选方案,详细说明了本方法的研究思路及其确定方法。通过最佳因素权重方法,能客观地、定量地确定出多因素复杂系统中的最优场址。     

The use of inclined hemisphere projections for analyzing failure mechanisms in discontinuous rocks

This paper demonstrates the advantages of using inclined stereographic projections in kinematic analysis of rock blocks in discontinuous rock masses. Some examples of limiting cases are presented. The application of inclined projections is illustrated by its use in a mine slope in Brazil. It is clear from the discussion of these examples that inclined hemisphere projections provide better results than horizontal projections. It is also demonstrated that horizontal projections can lead to incorrect results in limiting cases.     

GPS-measured land subsidence in Ojiya City, Niigata Prefecture, Japan

Land subsidence caused by compression of clay layers in Ojiya City, Japan was measured by global positioning system (GPS) between 1 April 1996 and 31 December 1998.

Three baselines were selected in and around the city, and height difference on a WGS-84 ellipsoid was measured by GPS on each baseline. The ground at the GPS station in the city subsides and rebounds 7 cm every winter and spring, respectively. Measurement accuracy was 9.5 mm standard deviation. Ground water level was observed at a well near the GPS station. Regression analysis between total strain, calculated as ratio of the height difference displacement to the total thickness of the clay layers, and the layers' effective stress change with ground water level change gave good correlation. The slope of regression line 7.0×10⁻¹¹ m²/N was obtained as an average apparent coefficient of volume compressibility of the layers.     

Analysis of the Chiufengershan landslide triggered by the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan

A disastrous earthquake rocked Taiwan on September 21, 1999, with magnitude M_L=7.3 and an epicenter near the small town of Chi-Chi in central Taiwan. The Chi-Chi earthquake triggered landslide on the dip slope at the Chiufengershan. In this study, a review of the topography and geology of this area was followed by field investigations. Laboratory testing was applied to understand the geomaterial composing the slope. Then, based on a series of limit equilibrium analyses, the failure mechanism of this landslide and the risk of the residual slope were studied.

According to the stability analyses, the pre-quake slope is quite stable, with factor of safety of 1.77 (dry) to 1.35 (full groundwater level); explaining why there is no written record of a landslide here for the past 100 years. In contrast, a back analysis shows that the Chi-Chi earthquake-induced dynamic loading is far more than the dip slope can sustain, due in part to the short distance to the epicenter. A Monte Carlo type probability analysis suggests that the residual slope is more dangerous than the pre-quake slope and needs more attention.     

Spatial probabilistic modeling of slope failure using an integrated GIS Monte Carlo simulation approach

Spatial probabilistic modeling of slope failure using a combined Geographic Information System (GIS), infinite-slope stability model and Monte Carlo simulation approach is proposed and applied in the landslide-prone area of Sasebo city, southern Japan. A digital elevation model (DEM) for the study area has been created at a scale of 1/2500. Calculated results of slope angle and slope aspect derived from the DEM are discussed. Through the spatial interpolation of the identified stream network, the thickness distribution of the colluvium above Tertiary strata is determined with precision. Finally, by integrating an infinite-slope stability model and Monte Carlo simulation with GIS, and applying spatial processing, a slope failure probability distribution map is obtained for the case of both low and high water levels.     

Measuring the k–S–p relations on DNAPLs migration

Migration characteristics of dense non-aqueous phase liquids (DNAPLs) in the subsurface can be expressed as a water–DNAPL two-phase system based on mainly the k–S–p relations, which describe the relations among relative permeability (k), degree of water saturation (S), and capillary pressure head (p). The aims of this research are to develop an experimental system with new type of probes, such as the electrical conductivity probe for measuring the degree of water saturation and the hydrophilic and hydrophobic tensiometer for measuring the pore water and DNAPL pressures, and also to estimate the results obtained from the developed experimental system. From these tests, the excellent k–S–p relations were obtained and the efficiency and validity of this developed experimental system have been confirmed in terms of the concept of the scaling coefficient calculated by interfacial tensions.