CRG桩在花岗岩持力层中的试验研究

CRG桩(预应力高强混凝土管注浆桩)取得了国家发明专利。介绍了CRG桩施工方法及试验桩施工情况,讨论了在花岗岩地层施工中遇到的孔内沉渣清理、管桩上浮及灌浆问题。对CRG桩的灌浆充填体进行了钻芯检测,发现充填体胶结质量不高,充填体强度低,影响桩身强度的提高。但静载试验表明,CRG桩的侧阻力和端阻力都得到充分发挥,单桩承载力比同直径的钻孔灌注桩有较大的提高。为在花岗岩持力层中CRG桩的试验积累了经验。     

吉兰泰盐湖卤水化学动态变化的灰色—马尔科夫过程预测分析

卤水中的化学成分因受多种因素影响,使其在时间序列上的变化波动强烈而规律难循。灰色—马尔科夫过程预测是预测事物在时间序列上发展趋势的一种良好有效的统计分析手段,它将灰色系统预测法和马尔科夫过程预测法有效结合,既弥补了两种方法各自的缺点,又能充分考虑数据给予的信息,可以大大提高随机波动较大数据序列的预测精度。本文用灰色—马尔科夫过程预测法对吉兰泰盐湖卤水中几种主要离子浓度的变化进行了趋势分析,分析结果发现几种离子浓度的变化均有一定的规律性,而且这些离子在预测数据的变化规律同原始实测数据变化规律有很好的一致性。     

广州城市化进程中郊区农民迁移意愿分析

以广州市10村为例,采用因子分析法对郊区农民的迁移意愿进行分析.结果表明,在城市化进程中,郊区农民进城的意愿不强,小城镇和卫星城是主要的拟迁目的地.因子分析发现,农民愿意进城的主要动因是城乡预期收入、失地压力、城乡预期生活收益、养老和望子成龙的心理,而乡土情结和小农心理、城乡意识淡泊、预期就业风险和搬迁成本、预期生计成本、农村既得权益等则是阻碍农民进城的主要动因.推进城市化的政策制定应充分考虑影响农民迁移意愿的因素.     

厦门市同安区不同扩展轴上的景观格局梯度分析与比较

城市扩展轴上的景观格局梯度变化特征及其变化原因的研究,是了解城市化对城市景观生态影响过程与机制的一个理想途径.本文选取厦门市同安区为研究对象,采用梯度分析结合景观格局分析方法,分别在沿同集路方向与沿往翔安的324国道方向的城市扩展轴上布设样带,通过移动窗口取样,运用景观格局指数进行景观格局梯度分析与比较.结果表明,在斑块类型水平上,沿同集路方向的扩展轴各项指数受城市化影响较明显,沿324国道方向的则不明显;在景观水平上,城市化造成沿同集路方向扩展轴景观形状更为复杂,景观多样性减少,景观格局由原本的多种景观均势并存转变为以城镇景观为主导的格局,景观更为破碎化,而沿324国道方向景观形状没有明显受城市化影响,但城市化促使景观多样性增加,景观格局由原本的以耕地景观为主导的格局转变为多种景观均势并存的格局,景观破碎化程度方面则没有明显受城市化影响.城市化水平的不同造成了城市扩展轴景观格局梯度变化特征的不同,周边地区城市化水平、城市建设布局模式、地域自然景观特征等因素则影响景观格局梯度变化的幅度与峰值的出现.     

The complex nonlinear systems with fractal as well as chaotic dynamics of annual runoff processes in the three headwaters of the Tarim River

This paper attempted to identify fractal and chaotic characteristics of the annual runoff processes in headwaters of the Tarim River. Methods of fractal analyses were used to explore several aspects of the temporal changes from 1957 to 2002. The main findings are as follows: (1) The annual runoff processes of the three headwaters of the Tarim River are complex nonlinear systems with fractal as well as chaotic dynamics. (2) The correlation dimensions of attractor derived from the time series of the annual runoff for the Hotan, Yarkand and Aksu rivers are all greater than 3.0 and non-integral, implying that all three rivers are chaotic dynamical systems that are sensitive to initial conditions, and the dynamic modeling of their annual runoff process requires at least four independent variables. (3) The time series of annual runoff in each river presents a long-term correlation characteristic. The Hurst exponent for the period of 1989 to 2002 suggests that we may expect to see an increasing trend in the annual runoff of the Aksu and Yarkand rivers in the years after 2002, but a decreasing tendency for the Hotan River in the same period.     

干旱区土壤植被系统恢复的生态水文学研究进展

干旱区约占地球陆表面积的40%以上,所支撑的复杂多样的生态系统是全球陆地生态系统的重要组成,水是干旱区诸多生态系统过程的驱动力和关键的非生物限制因子。生态水文学作为新兴的交叉学科,为客观、全面地诠释干旱区植被与土壤系统相互作用与反馈机理提供了新的理念和途径,同时,也为干旱区以植被建设为主的生态恢复实践提供了理论基础。以沙坡头沙漠研究试验站在腾格里沙漠东南缘荒漠化草原和草原化荒漠过渡带的长期定位监测研究为例,分析、综述了我国在干旱区生态水文学研究领域所取得的主要成绩和相关进展,重点讨论了沙地植被从组成、结构和功能群演变等多层次上对土壤生态水文过程的响应,以及植被对土壤环境和水循环的长期反馈作用和调控机理;将生物土壤结皮首次作为影响植被-土壤系统水文过程的重要环节来考虑,对其发挥的生态水文功能的相关研究进行了总结;归纳了基于水量平衡的干旱区生态恢复理论模式及其在实践中的应用。     

2000年姚安M_S6.5地震震源破裂过程研究

利用从IRIS上获取的11个台站震相清晰的P波波形记录资料对2000年姚安MS6.5地震的震源破裂过程进行了反演,结果表明:(1)地震破裂持续时间为5.6s,破裂主要集中在破裂开始0.2s后的时间段内,由两次2s多的破裂组成,而且后一次破裂的强度超过了前一次;(2)静态滑动位移和应力降分布图均显示存在震中区和震中以东区两个变化比较明显的区域,破裂沿北西向断裂进行。     

超松弛迭代法反演震源破裂过程解的稳定性分析

主要讨论超松弛迭代法反演震源破裂过程解的稳定性。在精确反演的基础上,分别对数据扰动和模型扰动进行分析,用MATLAB作图进行对比并得出最后的结论：超松弛迭代法反演震源破裂过程的结果是可靠的。     

Bayesian methods for estimating multi-segment discharge rating curves

This study explores Bayesian methods for handling compound stage–discharge relationships, a problem which arises in many natural rivers. It is assumed: (1) the stage–discharge relationship in each rating curve segment is a power-law with a location parameter, or zero-plane displacement; (2) the segment transitions are abrupt and continuous; and (3) multiplicative measurement errors are of equal variance. The rating curve fitting procedure is then formulated as a piecewise regression problem where the number of segments and the associated changepoints are assumed unknown. Procedures are developed for describing both global and site-specific prior distributions for all rating curve parameters, including the changepoints. Estimation and uncertainty analysis is evaluated using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation (MCMC) techniques. The first model explored accounts for parameter and model uncertainties in the interpolated area, i.e. within the range of available stage–discharge measurements. A second model is constructed in an attempt to include the uncertainty in extrapolation, which is necessary when the rating curve is used to estimate discharges beyond the highest or lowest measurement. This is done by assuming that the rate of changepoints both inside and outside the measured area follows a Poisson process. The theory is applied to actual data from Norwegian gauging stations. The MCMC solutions give results that appear sensible and useful for inferential purposes, though the latter model needs further efforts in order to obtain a more efficient simulation scheme.     

Spatial rainfall model using a pattern classifier for estimating missing daily rainfall data

Missing data in daily rainfall records are very common in water engineering practice. However, they must be replaced by proper estimates to be reliably used in hydrologic models. Presented herein is an effort to develop a new spatial daily rainfall model that is specifically intended to fill in gaps in a daily rainfall dataset. The proposed model is different from a convectional daily rainfall generation scheme in that it takes advantage of concurrent measurements at the nearby sites to increase the accuracy of estimation. The model is based on a two-step approach to handle the occurrence and the amount of daily rainfalls separately. This study tested four neural network classifiers for a rainfall occurrence processor, and two regression techniques for a rainfall amount processor. The test results revealed that a probabilistic neural network approach is preferred for determining the occurrence of daily rainfalls, and a stepwise regression with a log-transformation is recommended for estimating daily rainfall amounts.