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A new analysis of all 346 published 14C dated Holocene alluvial units in Britain offers a unique insight into the regional impacts of global change and shows how surprisingly sensitive British rivers have been to relatively modest but repeated changes in climate. Fourteen major but probably brief periods of flooding are identified bracketed within the periods 400–1070, 1940–3940, 7520–8100 and at ca. 10 420 cal. yr BP. There is a strong correspondence between climatic deteriorations inferred from mire wet shifts and major periods of flooding, especially at ca. 8000 cal. yr BP and since ca. 4000 cal. yr BP. The unusually long and complete British record also demonstrates that alterations in land cover have resulted in a step change in river basin sensitivity to variations in climate. This has very important implications for assessing and mitigating the impact of increasing severe flooding. In small and medium‐sized river basins land use is likely to play a key role in either moderating or amplifying the climatic signal. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
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We have tested the applicability of the global modal approach in the density wave theory of spiral structure for a sample of spiral galaxies with measured axisymmetric background properties. We report here the results of the simulations for four galaxies: NGC 488, NGC 628, NGC 1566, and NGC 3938. Using the observed radial distributions for the stellar velocity dispersions and the rotation velocities we have constructed the equilibrium models for the galactic disks in each galaxy and implemented two kinds of stability analyses - the linear global analysis and 2D-nonlinear simulations. In general, the global modal approach is able to reproduce the observed properties of the spiral arms in the galactic disks. The growth of spirals in the galactic disks can be physically understood in terms of amplification by over-reflection at the corotation resonance. Our results support the global modal approach as a theoretical explanation of spiral structure in galaxies. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   
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We apply the ztrace algorithm to the optical NOG and infrared PSC z galaxy catalogues to reconstruct the pattern of primordial fluctuations that have generated our local Universe. We check that the density fields traced by the two catalogues are well correlated, and consistent with a linear relation [either in δ or in  log (1 +δ)  ] with relative bias (of NOG with respect to PSC z )   b rel= 1.1 ± 0.1  . The relative bias relation is used to fill the optical zone of avoidance at  | b | < 20°  using the PSC z galaxy density field.
We perform extensive testing on simulated galaxy catalogues to optimize the reconstruction. The quality of the reconstruction is predicted to be good at large scales, up to a limiting wavenumber   k lim≃ 0.4 h Mpc−1  beyond which all information is lost. We find that the improvement arising from the denser sampling of the optical catalogue is compensated by the uncertainties connected to the larger zone of avoidance.
The initial conditions reconstructed from the NOG catalogue are found (analogously to those from the PSC z ) to be consistent with a Gaussian paradigm. We use the reconstructions to produce sets of initial conditions ready to be used for constrained simulations of our local Universe.  相似文献   
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