Smaller source earthquakes and improved measuring techniques allow the largest earthquakes in Iceland to be stress forecast (with hindsight)

A group of three earthquakes in 2000 June in SW Iceland included the two largest earthquakes in Iceland in the past 30 yr. Previously, temporal changes in shear-wave splitting had not been recognized before these earthquakes as there were too few small earthquakes to provide adequate shear-wave data, and they were not stress forecast, even with hindsight. These large earthquakes were subject to a special investigation by the European Community funded PREPARED Project during which the seismic catalogue was extended to include smaller magnitude earthquakes. This more detailed data set, together with a semi-automatic programme for measuring the parameters of shear-wave splitting greatly increased the number of time-delay measurements.
The new measurements displayed the typical temporal variations before larger earthquakes as seen elsewhere: a long-term increase in time delays, interpreted as stress accumulation before the earthquake; and a decrease, interpreted as crack coalescence, immediately prior to the earthquake. The logarithms of the durations of both the implied accumulation of stress and the crack coalescence have the same self-similar relationships to earthquake magnitude as found elsewhere in Iceland. This means that, in principle, the time and magnitude of the larger earthquakes could have been stress forecast in real time had the smaller source earthquakes of the extended catalogue and the improved measuring procedures been available at the time.     

Methodology for preliminary seismic design of extended pile‐shafts for bridge structures

Seismic design of extended pile‐shafts requires a careful consideration of the influence of the surrounding soil on the overall response of the soil–pile system. In this paper, a procedure that incorporates soil properties into the process is developed for preliminary seismic design of extended pile‐shafts. The method follows the well‐accepted approach of using a force reduction factor to determine the lateral strength of the structure. The procedure involves an iterative process to arrive at the required amount of longitudinal reinforcement. Other outcomes of the procedure include the appropriate lateral stiffness and strength, as well as an estimation of the local curvature demand and ultimate drift ratio that can be used to ensure a satisfactory lateral response. The design procedure is capable of providing reliable results for a practical range of structural and soil properties. The versatility of the procedure is illustrated using two numerical examples of extended pile‐shafts constructed in different soil sites. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

真空动力固结联合扩底旋喷桩在饱和软粘土地基加固中的应用研究

针对饱和软粘土的工程特性,采用了真空动力固结联合扩底旋喷桩加固饱和软粘土地基。结合江苏某软粘土地基加固工程,在探讨其加固机理的基础上,通过对加固过程的方案设计及现场试验结果的分析和讨论,表明该法能够充分发挥强夯、真空降水及旋喷注浆各自的技术优势。该法具有工期短、造价低、预沉降可控、加固效果好等优点。进一步拓宽了饱和软粘土地基的处理方法,为我国沿海地区软粘土地基处理工程提供了新的途径。     

论不连序系列样本概率权重矩不偏计算公式

人们普遍认为要从理论上通过数学分析的方法来论证不连序系列样本概率权重矩的偏倚性是很困难的。本文根据次序统计量理论，分析推证了不连序系列样本概率权重矩的不偏计算公式，论证结果具有较重要的理论和实用意义。     

影像数据库建立中的若干关键技术

分析和讨论了建立大型遥感影像数据库中需要加以研究和解决的主要问题和若干关键技术，包括影像数据库的体系结构、扩充的关系数据库、无缝拼接、正射影像图的制作、数据压缩等。     

致洪暴雨中期预报进展

结合我国国情,从防洪减灾的迫切需要出发,进行增长暴雨预见期的研究。采用气象与水文结合的方法,提出“致洪暴雨”的新概念,并简要地论述了近年来国内在致洪暴雨中期预报研究试验方面的若干新进展,其内容包括致洪暴雨过程出现的天气气候特征,大气环流形势背景、卫星云图及OLR场分布特点、大气超长波、长波及合成行星波、低频振荡、大气物理参数诊断、暴雨时空分布特点及其与洪水的关系,以及中期预报方法的探索等。     

A bound for the Euclidean norm of the difference between the best linear unbiased estimator and a linear unbiased estimator

 A bound is established for the Euclidean norm of the difference between the best linear unbiased estimator and any linear unbiased estimator in the general linear model. The bound involves the spectral norm of the difference between the dispersion matrices of the two estimators, and the residual sum of squares, all evaluated at the assumed model, but is independent of the provenance of the observation vector at hand. The bound, a straightforward consequence of first principles in Gauss–Markov theory, generalizes previous results on the difference between the best linear unbiased estimator and the ordinary least-squares estimator. In a numerical example from repeated precise levelling, the bound is used to analyse the sensitivity of estimates of vertical motion to the choice of estimator. Received: 9 September 1999 / Accepted: 15 March 2002     

实时海温对动力延伸（月）预报影响的数值试验研究

对1992年7月10日、19日和1997年7月1日3个个例，进行了实时海温和气候海温的对比数值试验，研究实时海温对月尺度数值预报的影响。个例试验结果表明，实时海温对10天以下的数值预报影响较小，但对月时间尺度的数值预报的影响则十分明显，实时海温对大气的强迫作用同模式大气的初值和预报模式包含的物理过程以及海温异常的强度有关。     

基于图元参数模型的通用普通地图符号库研究

地图符号库是地理信息系统中实现地理信息可视化的功能模块。现有符号库的符号设计机制各不相同,符号数据在符号库之间无法共享。此外,对于崩崖、沼泽等复杂符号缺少参数化的描述方法,难以自动绘制。在现有地图符号库研究以及相关标准的基础上,提出了地图符号的基本图元参数模型,并且针对复杂符号的特点对模型进行了扩展,最终实现了一个基于图元参数模型的通用普通地图符号库系统。     

基于SUT-EKF的DGPS/DR 组合定位算法

针对基于DGPS/DR的移动机器人组合定位问题,采用一种尺度无迹变换扩展卡尔曼滤波(SUT-EKF)算法,由于组合定位系统中的状态方程是非线性的,并且观测方程是线性的特点,将SUT预测移动机器人位姿,利用EKF融合最新观测值更新机器人位姿,该算法在状态预测阶段避免了计算Jacobian矩阵,从而有效地减小了线性化对非线性系统误差的影响。仿真结果表明,该算法具有较好的滤波精度和稳定性,为实现DGPS/DR组合定位系统提供了一种有效可靠的途径。