A hybrid Bayesian back‐propagation neural network approach to multivariate modelling

There is growing interest in the use of back‐propagation neural networks to model non‐linear multivariate problems in geotehnical engineering. To overcome the shortcomings of the conventional back‐propagation neural network, such as overfitting, where the neural network learns the spurious details and noise in the training examples, a hybrid back‐propagation algorithm has been developed. The method utilizes the genetic algorithms search technique and the Bayesian neural network methodology. The genetic algorithms enhance the stochastic search to locate the global minima for the neural network model. The Bayesian inference procedures essentially provide better generalization and a statistical approach to deal with data uncertainty in comparison with the conventional back‐propagation. The uncertainty of data can be indicated using error bars. Two examples are presented to demonstrate the convergence and generalization capabilities of this hybrid algorithm. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling and predicting the spatial dispersion of skin cancer considering environmental and socio-economic factors using a digital earth approach

ABSTRACT

Almost all causative factors of diseases depend on location. The Digital Earth approach is suitable for studying diseases globally. Geospatial information systems integrated with statistical models can be used to model the relationship between a disease and its causative factors. Through modelling, the most important causative factors can be extracted and the epidemiology of the disease can be observed. In this paper, skin cancer (the most common type of cancer) has been modelled based on its causative factors, including climate factors, people's occupations, nutrition habits, socio-economic factors, and usage of chemical fertiliser. To fit the model, a data framework was first designed, and then data were gathered and processed. Finally, the disease was modelled using Generalised Linear Models (GLM), a statistical model based on the location of the factors. The results of this study identify the most important causative factors together with their relative priority. Furthermore, a model was used to predict the change in skin cancer occurrences caused by a change in one of its causative factors. This work illustrates the ability of the model to predict disease occurrence. Thus, by using this Digital Earth approach, skincancer can be studied in all the key countries around the world.     

桩基内力长期监测中的蠕变影响分析

以黄土地区桩基浸水试验为代表的桩身内力长期监测过程中,桩身混凝土除发生弹性应变外还会发生蠕变,以往工作中往往忽略了混凝土在轴力长期作用下蠕变对测试结果的影响,但蠕变真实存在,它对内力测试结果的影响程度以及如何消除其影响值得研究。根据现场实测试验资料对比分析表明,长时间的桩基内力测试应考虑桩身蠕变的影响;基于混凝土蠕变的相关理论,推导了从实测应变中扣除桩身蠕变的公式;从消除蠕变影响角度分析了黄土桩基浸水试验中应采取的措施,其关键技术是控制试验桩的混凝土强度等级,在桩顶附近设置标定段,并保持标定段混凝土的温度和湿度恒定,且与下部桩体一致,获得具有代表性的蠕变度函数曲线。     

Evolution of cool skin and direct air-sea gas transfer coefficient during daytime

Absorption of solar radiation within the thermal molecular sublayer of the ocean can modify the temperature difference across the cool skin as well as the air-sea gas transfer. Our model of renewal type is based on the assumption that the thermal and diffusive molecular sublayers below the ocean surface undergo cyclic growth and destruction, the heat and gas transfer between the successive burst events are performed by molecular diffusion. The model has been upgraded to include heating due to solar radiation. The renewal time is parameterized as a function of the surface Richardson number and the Keulegan number. A Rayleigh number criterion characterizes the convective instability of the cool skin under solar heating. Under low wind speed conditions, the solar heating can damp the convective instability, strongly increasing the renewal time and correspondingly decreasing the interfacial gas exchange. In the ocean, an additional convective instability caused by salinity flux due to evaporation becomes of importance in such cases. The new parameterization is compared with the cool skin data obtained in the western equatorial Pacific during the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment in February 1993. In combination with a model of the diurnal thermocline it describes main features of the field data both in nighttime and daytime. Under low wind speed conditions (< 5 m s^-1) diurnal variations of the sea surface temperature due to the formation of a diurnal thermocline were substantially larger than those across the cool skin. Under wind speeds > 5 m s^-1, diurnal variations of the surface temperature due to the variations of the thermal molecular sublayer become more important.     

考虑桩-土体系渐进破坏的单桩承载特性研究

针对目前桩基承载特性确定时未考虑桩-土体系渐进变形过程的现状,采用现场试验和理论分析等手段对考虑桩-土体系渐进破坏的单桩承载特性展开研究。首先,利用现场试验数据对侧阻和端阻的软化特性展开深入探讨,提出了侧阻和端阻软化模型,明确了模型中各参数取值方法,并验证了其合理性。同时,根据提出的侧阻和端阻软化模型,建立了一种可考虑桩-土体系渐进破坏的单桩承载特性的迭代算法。算例分析表明,计算获得的破坏性单桩承载特性与实测值有较好的一致性,且可反映侧阻和端阻的破坏特性。实际工程中,结合单桩承载特性分析算法,可根据单桩的实际受力特点灵活选用不同形式的侧阻和端阻荷载传递函数来分析不同桩顶荷载水平下的单桩受力特性。     

Association between multi-level inorganic arsenic exposure from drinking water and skin lesions in Inner Mongolia, China

Arsenic is one of the most important single-substance toxicants in the environment. In Inner Mongolia of China, 300000 residents are believed to drink water containing 〉50 μg/L. Skin lesions have been known as the most common consequences resulting from chronic exposure to arsenic. To clarify the prevalence of arsenic-induced skin lesions, it is important to assess the impact of this problem on the target population, and to make future planning. We evaluated the association between multi-level inorganic arsenic exposure from drinking water and skin lesions in an arsenic-affected area in Inner Mongolia, China. 109 and 32 subjects fi＇om high-level arsenic-affected （〉5 μg/L） village and low-level （≤50 μg/L） village were recruited and had detailed physical examination with special emphasis on arsenic-related skin lesions. Arsenic exposure was measured for each participant with As concentration of primary well and the duration of using the well was recorded. Arsenic-induced skin lesions including keratosis, pigmentation, and/or leucomelanosis were diagnosed in 56 and 3 subjects in the two villages, respectively. Logistic regression was conducted to calculate prevalence-odd ratios of skin lesions by levels of arsenic exposure with adjustment of sex, age group, smoking and duration of exposure. A consistent dose-response relationship between arsenic exposure level and skin lesion risk was observed.     

地基土沉降对复合地基影响的三维数值模拟

通过对复合地基在正常使用条件下和地基土沉降后的三维数值模拟,研究了复合地基由地下水位下降引起的地基土沉陷后的沉降、桩体摩阻力分布和桩身轴力分布的变化。分析表明：随着地基土沉降的增加,加固桩体和基础的沉降加大,中性点位置逐渐下降,桩身轴力有所增大;在加强桩中,中心桩的中性点最低,边桩次之,角桩最高;随着地基土沉降的增加,各桩中性点位置差异逐渐减小,桩体上部负摩阻力作用的桩身长度更长,负摩阻力值逐渐增大。     

中国人皮肤相对湿度的地理分布

根据Ｂｅｒｇｌｕｎｄ等人（１９８３）公式：Ｗ＝（ｅｓｋ－ｅａ）／（ｅｓｓｋ－ｅａ），利用大气温度，大气水汽压和皮肤温度的月平均值，计算皮肤相对湿度，并按皮肤相对湿度划分舒适带。结果表明，决定我国皮肤相对湿度地理分布的基本因素是纬度，海陆分布，地形和大气环流，季节不同，则各因素所起作用有差异。作者以皮肤相对湿度２５％－４５％表示舒适带，计算表明，我国气候舒适带有明显的地区差异和季节变化。     

负摩擦作用下PCC桩沉降计算

从桩-土相互作用的机制出发,建立了均质地基中PCC桩负摩阻力传递的弹性微分方程。提出了基于有限差分法的一种桩身位移的迭代算法,计算结果表明,该计算方法收敛性好,且符合实际情况。根据中性点定义得出其位置在桩身中下部,与以往的研究结果相吻合。结果还表明,PCC桩比等截面的实心桩有较小的沉降。     

Approximate analytical and numerical solutions for radial non‐Darcian flow to a well in a leaky aquifer with wellbore storage and skin effect

This study investigated non‐Darcian flow to a well in a leaky aquifer considering wellbore storage and a finite‐thickness skin. The non‐Darcian flow is described by the Izbash equation. We have used a linearization procedure associated with the Laplace transform to solve such a non‐Darcian flow model. Besides, the Stehfest method has been used to invert the Laplace domain solutions for the drawdowns. We further analyzed the drawdowns inside the well for different cases. The results indicated that a smaller B_D results in a smaller drawdown at late times and the leakage has little effect on the drawdown inside the well at early times, where B_D is a dimensionless parameter reflecting the leakage. We have also found that the flow for the negative skin case approaches the steady‐state earlier than that for the positive skin. In addition, the drawdown inside the well with a positive skin is larger than that without skin effect at late times, and a larger thickness of the skin results in a greater drawdown inside the well at late times for the positive skin case. A reverse result has been found for the negative skin case. Finally, we have developed a finite‐difference solution for such a non‐Darcian flow model and compared the numerical solution with the approximate analytical solution. It has been shown that the linearization procedure works very well for such a non‐Darcian flow model at late times, and it underestimates the drawdowns at early times. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.