El Niño and decadal effects on sea‐level variability in northern New Zealand: A wavelet analysis

Sea‐level data from two sites in northern New Zealand, along with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), are analysed for interannual and decadal variability using wavelets. The analysis shows, using statistically significant wavelet power, there is a significant relationship between mean sea level (MSL) and SOI. However, the relationship is highly variable, both in magnitude and in the range of time‐scales over which it occurs. This non‐stationarity necessitates the use of techniques such as wavelets for analysis. An interdecadal response in MSL around northern New Zealand has been isolated, with shifts occurring in 1950 and the late 1970s. This behaviour in MSL appears to coincide with shifts in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, thought previously to be largely centred in the North Pacific. A strong correlation between SOI and sea surface temperature (SST) is also demonstrated. This relationship appears to be stable in magnitude (a large change in SOI produces a large change in SST) and to occur over the same range of time‐scales. More SST and MSL data are required for other parts of New Zealand to determine whether these findings apply elsewhere.     

南海北部中层水盐度时空变化及盐量输送研究

为探讨南海北部中层水盐度的时空分布特征及与外海水的交换,选用1871—2010年共140年的月平均海洋同化数据(SODA2.2.4),利用EOF、小波等分析方法,分析南海北部中层水盐度的时空分布、变化周期、盐通量等特征。结果表明:(1)南海北部中层水的盐度月际变化特征为:1—3月,南海北部中层水受到越南东部沿岸向东北方向延伸出的高盐舌的影响(>34.45 psu),盐度偏高,中部盐度较低;4月南海北部中层水的盐度分布均一,盐度范围在34.40~34.45 psu;5—8月,夏季南海北部的中层气旋式环流将北太平洋中层水(North Pacific Intermediate Water,NPIW)携带至南海中部,在南海中部偏北形成一低盐水团(<34.42 psu),并在此时间段内低盐水团逐渐向东北方向移动,直至9—10月,上述低盐水团与NPIW混合;11—12月,NPIW东撤,收缩至吕宋海峡西北侧。(2)过去140年,南海北部中层水的盐度值波动上升,其中,1985年中层水盐度值最高,可能与当年夏季风爆发早且强有关。1963—2002年,存在较强的16~21 a的周期性,小波系数的实部正相位的峰值和负相位的谷值所对应的年份,与ENSO冷事件具有较好的对应。(3)对EOF第一模态分析显示,整个研究海域为单极子变化特征,呈一致性变化。第二模态的空间分布呈偶极子形态,一正一负相位中心沿NW-SE走向对称分布。(4)南海北部中层水全年的净盐通量均由南海向东流入太平洋,夏季最少,冬季最多。1871—2010年的140年间,中层水的盐通量一直处于下降的趋势,下降的趋势十分缓慢。     

AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT ON SOUTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC ISLANDS *

A pilot study of spatial patterns of agricultural drought hazard in the south-central Pacific is presented. The durations of crop stress periods are estimated using a water balance approach. A rainfall approach is used to identify dry periods corresponding to different durations. Strong correlation between the results of the two methods indicates that monthly rainfall data are sufficient for estimating the patterns of agricultural drought hazard in the region. The simpler rainfall method is particularly useful for high islands where data required for the water balance approach are not sufficient to characterize the complex climatic patterns. Drought hazard is greatest in the eastern and southwestern parts of the study area. Great spatial variation in drought hazard is observed in a small area on the high islands of Western Samoa, where the range of values found within a few tens of kilometers is about the same as the range found across thousands of kilometers for low islands.     

Role of horizontal density advection in seasonal deepening of the mixed layer in the subtropical Southeast Pacific

The mechanisms behind the seasonal deepening of the mixed layer(ML) in the subtropical Southeast Pacific were investigated using the monthly Argo data from 2004 to 2012. The region with a deep ML(more than 175 m) was found in the region of(22?–30?S, 105?–90?W), reaching its maximum depth(～200 m) near(27?–28?S, 100?W) in September. The relative importance of horizontal density advection in determining the maximum ML location is discussed qualitatively. Downward Ekman pumping is key to determining the eastern boundary of the deep ML region. In addition, zonal density advection by the subtropical countercurrent(STCC) in the subtropical Southwest Pacific determines its western boundary, by carrying lighter water to strengthen the stratification and form a "shallow tongue" of ML depth to block the westward extension of the deep ML in the STCC region. The temperature advection by the STCC is the main source for large heat loss from the subtropical Southwest Pacific. Finally, the combined effect of net surface heat flux and meridional density advection by the subtropical gyre determines the northern and southern boundaries of the deep ML region: the ocean heat loss at the surface gradually increases from 22?S to 35?S, while the meridional density advection by the subtropical gyre strengthens the stratification south of the maximum ML depth and weakens the stratification to the north. The freshwater flux contribution to deepening the ML during austral winter is limited. The results are useful for understanding the role of ocean dynamics in the ML formation in the subtropical Southeast Pacific.     

Natural recolonization of a productive tropical pond: Day to day variations in the photosynthetic parameters

Chlorophyll pigments (CHL), primary productivity (PP) and particulate nitrogen (N_p) in relation to several environmental factors were monitored during planktonic colonization of an aquaculture pond (Layo, Côte d'Ivoire). How interactions between the organisms are established in an initially azoic environment were investigated. From March, 15 (D1) to March, 31 (D16), the system transformation went through three stages. First, a precolonization by heterotrophic microbial community from D1 to D2 (N_p < 1 m maximum at D2: 243 mg m^–2; CHL around 0). Then, a pioneer microalgal community developped from D3 to D7 (maximum CHL on D6: 19 mg m^–2; PP: 1.0 g C m^–2 d^–1) with a significant contribution of picoplankton (CHL and PP < 3 m: 33 and 23% of the total, respectively). Finally, a second microalgal colonization was noticed from D9 to D12 (maximum CHL: 55 mg m^–2, PP: 2.8 g C m^–2 d^–1), largely dominated by nanoplankton (CHL and PP > 3 m: 95 and 99% of the total, respectively). Overall, photosynthetic activity appeared to be closely linked to algal biomass. The study of autotrophic biomass and activity in different size classes in relation to the other parameters allowed us to precise the origin of the biomass fluctuations. The first bloom appeared to be controlled by selective grazing on small algae. The second algal development ended when N requirement represented at least 69% of N supply (in the N — NH₄ form). This control was enhanced by the appearance of rotifers, leading to a more complex equilibrium.     

Global Plate Motions and Their Impact on the Earth's Surface Area Change

Based on their Euler poles,we calculated the relative velocities between every two plates in the typical global plate motion models,respectively,and estimated the area change along these boundaries. In our calculations,plates on both sides accommodated area changes depending on the boundary types: extensional, convergent or transform, so we can estimate area change of each plate and then globally. Our preliminary results show that the area of the southern hemisphere increased while that of the northern hemisphere decreased over the past 1 million years,and global area has increased by 26,000km2 to 36,000km2,which corresponds to the 160m～250m increment on the Earth's radius if all these area increments are attributed to Earth's expansion. Taking the NUVEL-1 model as an example,of the 14 plates in this model,11 are decreasing,but the global area has increased because of the larger increment amount from Africa,North America and Antarctica. Finally,we also discussed factors affecting the global area change such as subduction zone retreating and back-arc spreading.     

海洋飞沫对热带气旋影响的数值试验

将最新版的Andreas海洋飞沫通量参数化方案与中尺度大气模式MM5V3耦合,对0514号热带气旋Nabi进行数值模拟,探讨海洋飞沫蒸发对热带气旋发展和演变的影响.模拟结果表明,考虑海洋飞沫的作用后,热带气旋范围内(气旋中心附近600 km左右范围内)的潜热和感热通量明显增强,尤其是潜热通量,最大值可提高35%～80%,潜热通量的大值区对应热带气旋眼墙处的最大风速区.无论是否考虑海洋飞沫作用,模式均能较好地模拟出热带气旋Nabi的移动路径,但考虑飞沫作用后,由于飞沫对海气界面通量交换的贡献,使得模拟热带气旋中心的最低海平面气压降低,最大风速增强,暖心结构更加明显.     

SEASONAL PERSISTENCE OF THE WEST PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH THE SURFACE HEAT FLUX ANOMALY

This paper investigates the interannual variation of the West Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) intensity based on the data compiled by the Chinese National Climate Center. Monthly reanalysis data from National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) are also used to study the lead-lag relationship between WPSH intensity and surface heat flux anomalies. The three major findings are as follows: First, WPSH intensity presents good seasonal persistence, especially from winter to the ensuing summer. Persistence is more significant after 1977, especially from spring to summer, and from summer to autumn; persistence of anticyclonic anomalies are significantly better than cyclonic anomalies. Second, surface heat flux tends to present opposite anomalous patterns between the strong and weak years of the WPSH intensity, which is especially valid at the latent heat flux over the ocean. Simultaneous correlations between surface heat flux and WPSH intensity in each of the seasons are marked by similar key areas. Finally, surface heat flux from the preceding winter of a strong summer WPSH is quite similar to strong spring WPSH, but the positive anomalies over the northwest Pacific and south of Japan are notably stronger. The situations in the weak years are similar except for those over the northwest Pacific: winter surface heat flux shows negative anomalies for a weak spring WPSH, but positive anomalies for a weak summer WPSH. It is suggested that surface heat flux in the previous winter plays an important role in maintaining the WPSH intensity in the ensuing spring and summer.     

Intensified Eastward and Northward Propagation of Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation over the Equatorial Indian Ocean in a Global Warming Scenario

Northward propagation in summer and eastward propagation in winter are two distinguished features of tropical intraseasonal oscillation(TISO) over the equatorial Indian Ocean.According to numerical modeling results,under a global warming scenario,both propagations were intensified.The enhanced northward propagation in summer can be attributed to the enhanced atmosphere-ocean interaction and the strengthened mean southerly wind;and the intensified eastward propagation in winter is associated with the enhanced convection-wind coupling process and the strengthened equatorial Kevin wave.Future changes of TISO propagations need to be explored in more climate models.