Markov chain model to study the occurrence of pre-monsoon thunderstorms over Bhubaneswar,India

The present work deals with pre-monsoon thunderstorms over Bhubaneswar belonging to the state of Orissa, India. A Markovian approach has been adopted to discern the probabilistic behavior of the time series of the occurrence and non-occurrence of this hazardous weather event by introducing a dichotomy within the time series. After a painstaking analysis through chi-square tests, we have identified serial independence in a few years and first-order two-state Markovian dependence in a few years (2000, 2001, 2004 and 2006). Finally, for the years of first-order two-state Markovian dependence, it has been observed that the probability of occurrence or non-occurrence of thunderstorm gets higher if the state of the previous day is similar to that of the current day. Furthermore, the probability of getting non-thunderstorm day followed by non-thunderstorm day is higher than the probability of getting thunderstorm day followed by thunderstorm day. It has been also observed that the unconditional climatological probability of the occurrence of severe pre-monsoon thunderstorm implied by the Markov chain is closely in agreement with the observed relative frequencies. However, it could be revealed that Markov chain cannot, in general, be suggested as a predictive tool for pre-monsoon thunderstorms under study without investigating the serial dependence inherent in the time series.     

Efficient detection of pathogen virus in sand dabs, Paralichthys olivaceus using loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP)

Viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSV) and marine birnavirus (MABV) are the causative pathogens for some of the most explosive epidemics of emerging viral diseases in many Asian countries, leading to huge economic losses in aquaculture. Rapid molecular detection for surveillance or diagnosis has been a critical component in reducing the prevalence of pathogen infection. The loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) of DNA is currently one of the most commonly used molecular diagnostic tools, as it is simple, quick, and easy to amplify target DNA under isothermal conditions. In the present study, a novel and highly specific LAMP assay for the sensitive and rapid detection of VHSV and MABV infection in fish was developed. Using a set of synthesized primers matching a specific region of the genome, the efficiency and specificity of the LAMP assay were optimized in terms of the reaction temperature and DNA polymerase concentration, as they are the main determinants of the sensitivity and specificity of the LAMP assay. In particular, we demonstrated that our assay could be applied to efficient detection of VHSV and MABV infection in the wild fish, Paralichthys olivaceus. Our results demonstrate the simplicity and convenience of this method for the detection of viral infection in aquatic organisms.     

Distributions and hydrogen isotopic compositions of plant leaf wax from Orinus kokonorica along a general aridity gradient around Lake Qinghai,China

To quantitatively analyze the response of distributions and hydrogen isotopic compositions （SD） of plant leaf wax to moisture, and to better understand their implications for paleoclimatic reconstruction, we measured av- erage chain length （ACL） and 8D values of n-alkanes and n-fatty acids （n-FAs） from Orinus kokonorica, a typical and representative plant in Lake Qinghai area, along a distance transect extending from lakeshore to wetland to dry- land in the arid ecosystem. The results showed that the ACL values of n-alkanes and n-FAs were negatively corre- lated with soil water content （SWC） with R2~0.593 and R2=0.924, respectively. This is as a result of plant＇s response to water loss with more abundance in long-chain n-alkyl lipids under increasing aridity by analyzing relationships between the molecular ratios of long-chain n-alkyl lipids （n-alkanes and n-FAs） from O. kokonorica and SWC. The 8D values of C29 n-alkane and C28 n-FA were also negatively correlated with SWC with R2-0.778 and R2-0.760, respectively, which may due to enhanced D-enrichment in leaf water by evapotranspiration （soil water evaporation and leaf water transpiration） with increasing aridity. Our results demonstrated that moisture exerts a significant con- trol on the ACL and 8D values from O. kokonorica in an arid ecosystem. This preliminary study on a modern single plant （O. kokonorica） sets a foundation for comprehending these values as quantitative proxies for paleo-humidity reconstruction.     

Effect of feeding selectivity on the transfer of methylmercury through experimental marine food chains

The present study established an experimental marine food chain of three levels (microalgae → zooplankton → fish) to investigate the effect of feeding selectivity on the transfer of methylmercury (MeHg) through the food chain. Total Hg concentrations in Chlorella sp., Nitzschia closterium and Isochrysis galbana exposed to 1 μg L⁻¹ MeHg for three days were 27.91, 32.74 and 40.03 μg g⁻¹ respectively and were significantly different (p < 0.05) between species. Moina mongolica and Artemia sp. primarily selected Chlorella sp. as the sole diet, though the Artemia sp. partly grazed on I. galbana as well. Harpacticus uniremis, however, preferred to graze N. closterium and I. galbana and avoided Chlorella sp. The varying concentration of Hg in the microalgae species as well as the selectivity of zooplankton to the algal diet resulted in varying Hg accumulation in three zooplankton species (M. mongolica < Artemia sp. < H. uniremis with total Hg concentrations of 0.14, 0.66 and 0.82 μg g⁻¹, respectively). Scophthalmus maximus and Paralichthys olivaceus mainly preyed on H. uniremis and partly on M. mongolica, while Fugu rubripes primarily preyed on M. mongolica and secondarily on Artemia sp. Thus, similar reasoning as above could explain the significant difference in Hg accumulation in the fish (S. maximus > P. olivaceus > F. rubripes with total Hg concentrations of 0.0042, 0.0031 and 0.0020 μg g⁻¹, respectively). These investigations suggested feeding selectivity plays a key role in the transfer of MeHg along marine food chains.     

四川省8·13特大泥石流灾害特点、成因与启示

2010年8月12～14日,四川省部分地区普降大到暴雨,在5.12汶川地震极重灾区的绵竹市清平乡、汶川县映秀镇和都江堰龙池镇诱发了极为严重的泥石流灾害。本次泥石流灾害表明:地震区和非地震区、震前和震后的泥石流在发育分布规律、启动条件、暴发规模、活动形式及其成灾方式和危害性等方面都具有显著的差别。通过对8.13清平乡泥石流、映秀红椿沟泥石流以及龙池泥石流的基本分析,表明8.13泥石流具有群发性、突发性、破坏性、灾害链效应等特点,同时还具有沿发震断裂呈带状分布、物源主要来自于汶川地震触发的崩滑堆积物、活动形式主要表现为"拉槽"侵蚀等显著特征。震区异常丰富的松散固体物源和极端气候所造成的局地短时强降雨是泥石流暴发的根本原因。针对汶川地震区泥石流暴发的新特点,应进一步加强对震区泥石流的防治,尤其是针对具有重大泥石流隐患的沟谷,一方面应提高设防标准,强化工程治理和专业监测预警,另一方面更应引入风险管理和控制的理念,注重"防""治"结合;"软""硬"结合;工程措施与非工程措施结合;"治理"与"管理"结合,调动全社会力量,共同防范地质灾害。     

应对海平面上升与地面沉降迭加引发的地质灾害与生态环境问题

海平面上升已引起各国政府和科技界的高度关注。预计未来30年,浙江沿海海平面将比2009年升高88~140 mm。海平面上升与浙江沿海平原地面沉降迭加将进一步恶化地质与生态系统,引发许多灾害问题,制约沿海区域经济社会的可持续发展。本文主要就如何应对海平面上升与地面沉降迭加引发的地质灾害链与生态环境问题进行了探讨,认为要从地球系统科学角度,重视对陆-海相互作用机制与生态环境效应的研究,着手考虑建立陆海(包括入海河流)统筹的海岸带地质与生态环境监测评价系统。     

Soil and landscape geochemical factors which contribute to iodine spatial distribution in the main environmental components and food chain in the central Russian plain

The distribution of iodine (Ι) has been studied in the main environmental components (soils and soil microorganisms, ground water and dominating plant species) and in the food chain (drinking water, forage and cow's milk) in the geochemically different areas of the non-chernozem zone of the Russian plain.     

基于多源地理大数据与机器学习的地铁乘客出行目的识别方法

探索地铁乘客出行目的识别方法,有助于突破智能卡数据（Smart Card Data,SCD）在具体应用场景中的局限性,提升SCD在交通出行研究、交通发展规划等领域的应用价值。本文融合多源地理大数据,基于城市交通与土地利用时空间互动理论,以北京市居民地铁出行为例,在交通出行调查数据中提取5565个地铁出行样本及其对应的出行目的和出行特征相关变量。基于兴趣点（Point of Interest,POI）数据得到各样本起止站点的土地利用特征相关变量,形成包含每次地铁出行的出行目的、出行特征、土地利用特征的地铁出行数据集。使用基于随机森林（Random Forest,RF）算法对地铁出行数据集进行训练完成的分类器对SCD记录的每一次地铁出行进行分类,获得该次出行的出行目的及其不同目的地铁出行时空间分布规律。研究结果表明,本识别方法可有效预测地铁乘客的出行目的,其中,“上班”、“回家”2类出行目的的预测准确率均超过90%;纳入土地利用特征相关变量可显著提升RF分类器预测准确率,印证了城市交通与土地利用的时空间互动理论。鉴于当前SCD的可获取性逐渐提高,该项技术在居民地铁出行监测与预测、地铁线网布局和地铁周边土地利用规划等实践方面,具有很强的推广性,有助于更全面地认知大城市居民的地铁出行行为。     

拉萨地区土地利用变化情景分析

根据西藏拉萨地区1990年、1995年和2000年3个时点的土地利用数据,应用马尔科夫过程模型分析了未来20年内拉萨地区的土地利用情景变化,并与90年代制定的拉萨地区土地利用规划面积进行了对比研究。研究结果:1)10年间,土地利用类型变化最广泛的是牧草地。变化方向主要由牧草地向耕地、园地、林地、居民点及水域转变,其中变成林地的面积最大,为2338.25hm²(占变化面积的94.093%);2)拉萨地区未来20年中土地利用类型发展趋势是耕地、牧草地、水域和未利用土地面积将进一步减少,林地、园地和居民点面积将进一步增加;3)土地利用规划面积与基于马尔科夫模型的土地利用变化情景分析结果比较吻合,马尔科夫过程模型对制定该区域土地利用规划具有重要的参考价值;4)由于土地利用变化是一个复杂的过程,不仅受到众多自然因素的影响,而且受到未来土地利用政策、社会经济发展、区域内大型工程项目及其他人类活动等不确定因素的影响,从而不同土地利用类型之间的转移概率会发生变化,使得基于马尔科夫过程模型预测的精度有一定的局限性。     

汶川地震引发的次生灾害链

汶川地震造成了大量的滑坡、崩塌,并诱发了多种地质和生态灾害链式发生.2008-2009年期间,在汶川地震震区开展了野外调查与试验,研究了各种不同的灾害链的形成条件及其链生机制.识别出了4种类型的灾害链,并重点研究了7起灾害链事件.发现灾害链中,每一级灾害事件都由其前一级灾害事件诱发.各级次生灾害造成的物质搬运量都远小于其上一级灾害所造成的物质搬运,灾害性沿灾害链呈现逐级衰减的趋势.由此定义灾害链衰减率为灾害链中某级次生灾害所造成的物质搬运或者灾害影响区面积与其上一级灾害所造成的物质搬运或灾害影响区面积之间的比值.汶川地震引起的次生灾害链衰减率在2％～30％.采用底栖动物作为指示物种,评价次生灾害链对震区河流生态造成的影响,发现受灾害链影响的河道中,底栖动物物种数急剧降低,生物多样性下降.