Aeolian sediment fingerprinting using a Bayesian mixing model

Identifying sand provenance in depositional aeolian environments (e.g. dunefields) can elucidate sediment pathways and fluxes, and inform potential land management strategies where windblown sand and dust is a hazard to health and infrastructure. However, the complexity of these pathways typically makes this a challenging proposition, and uncertainties on the composition of mixed‐source sediments are often not reported. This study demonstrates that a quantitative fingerprinting method within the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework offers great potential for exploring the provenance and uncertainties associated with aeolian sands. Eight samples were taken from dunes of the small (~58 km²) Ashkzar erg, central Iran, and 49 from three distinct potential sediment sources in the surrounding area. These were analyzed for 61 tracers including 53 geochemical elements (trace, major and rare earth elements (REE)) and eight REE ratios. Kruskal–Wallis H‐tests and stepwise discriminant function analysis (DFA) allowed the identification of an optimum composite fingerprint based on six tracers (Rb, Sr, ⁸⁷Sr, (La/Yb)_n, Ga and δCe), and a Bayesian mixing model was applied to derive the source apportionment estimates within an uncertainty framework. There is substantial variation in the uncertainties in the fingerprinting results, with some samples yielding clear discrimination of components, and some with less clear fingerprints. Quaternary terraces and fans contribute the largest component to the dunes, but they are also the most extensive surrounding unit; clay flats and marls, however, contribute out of proportion to their small outcrop extent. The successful application of these methods to aeolian sediment deposits demonstrates their potential for providing quantitative estimates of aeolian sediment provenances in other mixed‐source arid settings, and may prove especially beneficial where sediment is derived from multiple sources, or where other methods of provenance (e.g. detrital zircon U–Pb dating) are not possible due to mineralogical constraints. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparative analysis of predictive methods for drought durations: a case of monthly and annual streamflow droughts in Atlantic Canada

Methods based on the recursive probability, the extreme number theorem, and Markov chain (MC) concepts were applied to predict drought lengths (duration) on the standardized (termed as standardized hydrological index, SHI) sequences of monthly and annual river flows from Atlantic Canada. Results of the study indicated that the MC-based method is the most efficient, reliable and versatile method for predicting drought durations followed by the extreme-number-based method. The recursive-probability-based method was found to be computationally intensive and less efficient, although it provided a powerful means for calibrating the empirical plotting position formula needed in the MC-based method. The Weibull plotting position formula turned out to be a suitable measure of the exceedance probability in MC methodology for predicting drought lengths in Atlantic Canada. Based on results, it can be inferred that the MC-based method can be extended to MC2 and higher-order chains for predicting drought lengths on SHI sequences. The predictive capability of the extreme-number-theorem-based method is limited only to independent or weakly first-order persistent SHI sequences.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis

ASSOCIATE EDITOR Q. Zhang     

Disturbance of meromixis in saline Lake Shira (Siberia,Russia): Possible reasons and ecosystem response

Saline Lake Shira (Southern Siberia, Russia) was meromictic through the observation period 2002–2015. During the under-ice periods of 2015 and 2016, complete mixing of the water column was recorded for the first time, and hydrogen sulphide temporarily disappeared from the water column of the lake; i.e. in those years the lake turned to holomixis. In the summer of 2015, a sharp increase in chlorophyll a, organic carbon, zooplankton, and phytoflagellates was observed in the lake, which was probably due to the release of nutrients from the monimolimnion. Purple sulfur bacteria completely disappeared from the lake after the first mixing in 2015, and did not reappear despite the restoration of meromixis in 2017. Thus, it was demonstrated that purple sulfur bacteria are sensitive to the weakening of the stratification of Lake Shira. Based on the data of the seasonal monitoring of temperature and salinity profiles over the period 2002–2017, it was presumed that the main cause of deep mixing in 2015 was the weakening of the salinity gradient due to strong wind impact and early ice retreat in the spring of 2014. In addition, it was shown that in previous years a significant contribution to the maintenance of meromixis was made by an additional influx of fresh water, which caused a rise in the lake level in the period 2002–2007. Thus, we identified a relationship between the stratification regime of the lake and the change in its level, which provides valuable information both for the forecast of water quality and for reconstruction of the Holocene climate humidity in this region of Southern Siberia from the sediment cores of Lake Shira.     

Future high- and low-flow estimations for Central Vietnam: a hydro-meteorological modelling chain approach

We apply a complex hydro-meteorological modelling chain for investigating the impact of climate change on future hydrological extremes in Central Vietnam, a region characterized by limited data availability. The modelling chain consists of six General Circulation Models (GCMs), six Regional Climate Models (RCMs), six bias correction (BC) approaches, the fully distributed Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM), and extreme values analysis. Bias corrected and raw climate data are used as input for WaSiM. To derive hydrological extremes, the generalized extreme value distribution is fitted to the annual maxima/minima discharge. We identify limitations according to the fitting procedure and the BC methods, and suggest the usage of the delta change approach for hydrological decision support. Tendencies towards increased high- and decreased low flows are concluded. Our study stresses the challenges in using current GCMs/RCMs in combination with state-of-the-art BC methods and extreme value statistics for local impact studies.     

导致甘肃输电线路舞动的蒙古气旋的形成及增风机理研究

受一次向东南方向移动蒙古气旋强风的影响,2020年4月18日甘肃省白银市的高压输电线路出现了严重的舞动,这造成了该地区的输电线路跳闸事故.基于0.5度逐小时分辨率的ERA5再分析数据,本文研究了这次蒙古气旋及其强风的形成机理.涡度收支的结果表明,辐合相关的垂直伸展以及垂直运动向上的正涡度输送是本次蒙古气旋形成的主因,而...     

基于出行链的建成环境对居民小汽车通勤出行的影响

城市建成环境对居民出行,尤其是小汽车通勤出行的影响是交通需求预测的基础性命题,长期受到关注.已有研究大多以单次出行作为研究对象,较少关注出行链影响下的出行协同决策问题.论文基于2017年广州市居民活动日志调查数据,采用Logistic模型检验了出行链视角下城市建成环境对工作日选择小汽车通勤出行的影响.研究发现,出行链中...     

马尔可夫模型在洞庭湖区Cd的生态地球化学评价中的应用

根据马尔可夫链模型,定量地探讨了湖南省洞庭湖区农田生态系统中Cd的迁移转化问题,计算了Cd在土壤-水-稻谷-大气系统中的滞留时间和环境允许量,进而探讨了系统的生态承载力,得到系统中Cd的最大允许排放量CdA与生态承载力M人口之间的关系式:CdA=3.56×10-4M人口,为生态环境地球化学评价提供了一种新的方法和途径。     

基于MapReduce的海量公交乘客OD并行推算方法

公交乘客出行OD能够反映居民出行特征和出行需求,是进行公交系统评价、调度和线路优化的重要基础数据,对城市规划具有重要的实用价值。现有公交OD推算方法多适用于少量公交数据,无法直接快速地推算海量公交乘客出行OD,因此本文提出了一种基于MapReduce的海量公交乘客OD并行推算方法。首先将公交数据从关系型数据库迁移至HBase数据库;接着利用MapReduce并行计算框架,根据HBase中IC卡数据的Region数量分成多个map任务,每个map任务中Map函数计算上车站点,Reduce函数将上车站点以用户为单位进行归并输出到HDFS;然后在上车记录数据的基础上,根据HDFS存储的块数量分成多个map任务,针对每个乘客的出行记录,综合考虑出行链方法和历史相似出行行为规律实现对公交乘客下车站点较为精确的推算。最后以厦门2015年6月13日至26日的IC卡数据和公交车辆GPS数据进行实例分析,共计算出295条公交线路,16 879 661条上车记录,14 410 058条完整OD记录,占IC卡数据的78.9%,计算效率相比传统方法有较大幅度提升。结果表明：该方法不仅可以较为准确地推算公交乘客上下车站点,而且计算效率较高。     

A mini-review on the microbial continuum:consideration of a link between judicious consumption of a varied diet of macroalgae and human health and nutrition

As the primordial,prokaryotic inhabitants on Earth,microbial entities were responsible for significant influences on the pathways taken in the development of life as we know it.The manifestation of numerous pathologies in humans is considered to be intrinsically associated with microbial dysbiosis in the gut(i.e.a poorly balanced microbiota).Such adverse health conditions include obesity,chronic fatigue syndrome,cancer,cardiovascular issues,neurological disorders,colitis,irritable bowel syndrome(IBS),and rheumatoid arthritis.Endosymbiotic events at the single cell level took place billions of years ago,eventually leading to eukaryotes,photosynthesis,and multicellularity.Macroalgae(seaweeds)were amongst the first organisms to develop these characteristics.Microbes and macroalgae interacted in a pattern of co-evolution,a process that applies to most,if not all living organisms.It is recognized that the normal human microbiome consists of over a trillion microorganisms,including about 2000 commensal bacterial species typically stationed in the gut.Many of these live in the colon,where they function in the digestion of foods,releasing bio-available nutrients,bioactive molecules,and various metabolites.They mediate communication signals between the gut and the brain,and promote the normal development of immune function,metabolic activities,behaviour,and neurological stability.As very early humans foraged for food,some would have benefi tted from coastal diets,rich in seaweeds and associated microbes.Such diets would have consistently provided all the nutrients essential for survival and growth,and as such,could have conveyed competitive advantages and contributed to enhanced cognitive sophistication.This mini-review article highlights studies regarding the health benefits of dietary fibres and the production of short chain fatty acids(SCFA).Insights are off ered regarding the positive effects the inclusion of macroalgae into the standard,Western diet can deliver in terms of providing appropriate fodder for those microbial populations deemed beneficial to human health and wellness.     

一种新型Semi-Spar式海上风机平台系泊系统优化分析

参考英国的Kincardine风机采用的新式的Semi-Spar概念,结合spar式基础和半潜式基础的特点,提出了一种新式海上浮式风机平台模型,并基于三维势流理论,利用AQWA软件进行水动力计算,验证新式平台可靠性。分析了在风、浪、流荷载联合作用下,锚链竖向夹角、系缆数量对风机浮式平台运动性能和系泊张力的影响,对系泊系统进行优化,并验证极端工况下的可靠性。结果证明风机平台水平运动和纵摇运动幅值较小,但垂荡幅值略大,而通过减小锚链竖向夹角可以控制平台运动响应幅值,增加系缆数量可以同时减小系泊张力大小。计算结果证明了新型Semi-Spar式海上风机平台可行性,为浮式风机平台及系泊系统的设计提供参考。