Spatio-temporal evolution of drought and flood disaster chains in Baoji area from 1368 to 1911

Based on the collation and statistical analysis of flood and drought information in Baoji area from 1368 to 1911, and in the context of climate change, we investigated the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of drought and flood disaster chains in this area during the Ming and Qing dynasties using the methods of moving average, cumulative anomaly and wavelet analysis. The results are as follows: (1) We found a total of 297 drought and flood events from 1368 to 1911 in Baoji. Among these events, droughts and floods occurred separately 191 and 106 times, which accounted for 64.31% and 35.69% of the total events, respectively. (2) We observed distinct characteristics of flood and drought events in Baoji in different phases. The climate was relatively dry from 1368 to 1644. A fluctuant climate phase with both floods and droughts occurred from 1645 to 1804. The climate was relatively wet from 1805 to 1911. Moreover, we observed a pattern of alternating dry and wet periods from 1368 to 1911. In addition, 3 oscillation periods of drought and flood events occurred around 70 a, 110 a and 170 a, which corresponded to sunspot cycles. (3) We also observed an obvious spatial difference in drought and flood events in Baoji. The northern and eastern parts of Weihe River basin were regions with both frequent droughts and floods. (4) The sequential appearance of drought and flood disaster chains in Baoji from 1368 to 1911 was in response to global climate change. Since the 1760s, global climatic deterioration has frequently led to extreme drought and flood events.     

1978-2016年中国农业生态效率时空演变及趋势预测

基于1978-2016年中国各省市面板数据,采用超效率SBM模型测算省际农业生态效率,在时间序列分析和空间相关性分析的基础上,构建传统和空间马尔可夫概率转移矩阵,探讨中国农业生态效率的时空动态演变特征,并预测其长期演变的趋势。研究发现：① 中国农业生态效率呈现出在波动中稳定上升的“双峰”分布特征,且波峰高度的差距在缩小,但整体仍处于较低水平,农业生态效率仍存在较大提升空间,东部地区农业生态效率提升较中西部地区更加显著;② 中国农业生态效率整体上向高水平方向转移的趋势显著,但农业生态效率的演变具有维持原有状态的稳定性,且较难实现跨越式转移。地理空间格局在农业生态效率时空演变过程中发挥着重要作用,空间集聚特性显著,农业生态效率较高的省市具有正向的溢出效应,而农业生态效率较低的省市具有负的溢出效应,从而在空间格局上逐渐形成“高高集聚、低低集聚、高辐射低、低抑制高”的“俱乐部收敛”现象;③ 从长期演变的趋势预测来看,多数省市农业生态效率逐渐向上转移为较高水平,并逐渐演变为由低到高渐次递增的格局,在农业生态效率较低的地理背景下,其长期演变的稳定状态表现为偏“单峰”分布,而在农业生态效率较高的地理背景下,其长期演变为较高水平集聚的偏“双峰”分布。最后,分析当前研究需要改进的方向,并提出控制农业污染排放量、地区间农业生态政策联动、加强地区间农业生态合作交流与借鉴等能够有效提升中国农业生态效率及缩小省市间差距。     

马尔可夫切换的汽车悬架系统的事件触发H∞滤波

针对具有马尔可夫切换信道的两自由度（2-DOF） 四分之一汽车悬架系统,研究了事件触发 H_∞ 滤波问题.首先,信道切换由马尔可夫链控制;其次,考虑到事件触发的通信方案,由于有限的网络带宽,产生信号量化和随机丢包问题;然后,采用马尔可夫线性跳变系统模型来表示整个滤波网络系统.利用Lyapunov泛函和线性矩阵不等式方法将事件触发 H_∞ 滤波问题转化为凸优化问题,从而设计了切换信道相关的滤波器,使得滤波误差系统在均方意义上是指数稳定的并达到期望的性能水平.最后,通过仿真实例验证了所提出的设计方法的有效性.     

两种纯化方法获得脂肪酸的链长及碳同位素分布特征对比

饱和脂肪酸及其同位素组成是重建古环境和古气候的重要代用指标,目前存在多种提取及纯化流程。在全球变化研究中,基于不同原理的纯化流程得到的脂肪酸含量及其同位素组成是否一致,直接影响着该指标应用于不同区域重建结果的对比。本文用两种常见的脂肪酸纯化流程提取脂肪酸标准、现生植物和泥炭样品类脂物,通过对比发现:对脂肪酸标准两种流程都可以得到纯净的单体脂肪酸,而且回收率均较高(85%以上),都是较为可靠的脂肪酸纯化流程;然而对于天然样品,虽然高碳数脂肪酸(碳数>C₂₄)的回收率相近,流程1却能够获得相对较多的低碳数饱和脂肪酸,如泥炭样品中该流程获得的n-C₂₂脂肪酸是流程2的3倍;两种流程纯化狗尾草(Setaira viridis)和三叶草(Trifolium repens)得到n-C₁₆脂肪酸的δ¹³C不同,流程1分别为-21.1‰和-36.2‰;流程2分别为-23.3‰和-34.9‰,表明两个实验流程得到的低碳数脂肪酸的含量、脂肪酸链长分布模式以及碳同位素组成均存在明显的差异。实验结果显示,流程2分离纯化样品可得到几乎全部的游离态脂肪酸,而流程1可提纯样品中游离态和酯态存在的总脂肪酸。由于在沉积物中游离态脂肪酸和酯态脂肪酸可以相互转化,因此使用流程1分析样品中的总脂肪酸更为合适,也可以将类脂物皂化使酯态脂肪酸释放为游离态,然后使用流程2。     

基于最短路径分析的中间件设计与应用研究

最短路径分析的根本目的是研究、筹划一项网络工程应如何安排而使其运行效果最好,其在社会生活中应用广泛且研究意义重大。在软件开发方面,q-间件能够屏蔽底层多源异构系统环境和数据环境,提高模型复用率和软件开发效率,因此本文提出通过中间件方式实现最短路径分析算法与应用系统的集成,为实际应用提供新的思路。     

Farm Size and Land Use Pattern Changes in Postsocialist Poland∗

The postsocialist transition resulted in widespread structural change in Polish agriculture, but fine-scale assessments of how these changes affected farming and rural landscapes are scarce. This article examines changes in farm sizes and land use patterns after the breakdown of socialism in Poland using micro-census data and satellite images. Our study area is Pyrzyce County. The analysis indicates a polarization of the farm size distribution (e.g., medium-sized farms disappeared) as well as marked changes in land use patterns (e.g., increasing field sizes and field aggregation). Interviews with farmers and stakeholders suggest that this shift can be explained by decreasing competitiveness of medium-sized farms in the emerging new agricultural value chain, which forced farmers to increase and intensify production or to downsize their farms, especially when the preference was for other occupations.     

美国岛链封锁及其对我国海上安全的影响

新中国成立以来,美国及其盟国利用西太平洋岛链对中国采取封锁战略,严重威胁着中国在太平洋海上出海通道的安全。因此中国应从被动到积极应对,采取有效措施冲破岛链封锁,打通出海口,维护中国海上航线及其咽喉要道的安全:一是要把解决台湾问题作为核心关键;二是要把解决南海问题作为重要突破口;三是要把争夺钓鱼岛及其附属岛屿控制权和坚决反对日本利用冲之鸟礁来扩大专属经济区的错误做法作为支撑;四是要加强对岛链和出海通道的科学研究,同时要运用有关国际海洋法维护自身权利,并增强应急能力;五是要努力争取获得在印度洋的出海口;六是要加强各种层次和各种领域的国际合作;七是要不断提升中国海军近海防御和远海防卫作战能力。     

《现代物流管理学》论纲

作为一门综合的交叉学科，《现代物流管理学》有自己的研究对象，它主要讨论现代物流的概念、现代物流构成、物流系统、物流技术基础、物流营销、物流配送、物流运输、供应链管理、企业物流、国际物流及物流成本等内容。     

基于MapGIS软件明码文件钻孔柱状图制作

通过实例简要说明了Excel软件、Map GIS软件明码文件及辅助软件MGT6在绘制钻孔柱状图中的应用.实例采用某矿区实际钻孔回次进尺数据,对数据进行整理、计算.利用Excel软件和Map GIS软件生成钻孔回次线明码文件后,进而绘制钻孔回次线,建立钻孔柱状图绘制模板,用Map GIS二次开发辅助软件MGT6进行回次数据输入.钻孔柱状图绘制模板建立后,进行其他钻孔柱状图绘制时可直接输入回次进尺而成图.     

Waveform inversion and focal mechanisms of two weak earthquakes in Cordillera Principal (Argentina) between 35° and 35.5° S

Only few (six) focal mechanism, in CMT Catalog, have been so far known for intraplate shallow events in the Andean chain close to Chile–Argentina state border at latitudes ∼35° S. We add two more mechanisms, depths and moment magnitudes by carefully analyzing full waveforms of weak events recorded by broad-band stations of the Chile Argentina Geophysical Experiment (southern profile). The moment magnitudes of both events (Mw = 3.6 and 3.7) are lower than the duration magnitudes (Md = 4.0 and 4.29) reported by NEIC. The source depth, constrained by waveforms for one of the studied events (5.5–8.5 km) seems to be considerably shallower than the hypocenter depth located by means of arrival times (∼20 km). The waveform analysis was complemented by first-motion polarities which resulted in an uncertainty assessment of the focal mechanism. Event 1 (2001-11-03) has a strike-slip mechanism with a small normal component and almost vertical nodal planes in the north-south and east-west directions. The north-south nodal plane could be related to the Calabozos faults system. Event 2 (2002-02-16) has a strike-slip mechanism with a small thrust component. The latter event (its subhorizontal nodal plane) could be associated with the El Diablo-El Fierro fault system. Dextral strike-slip solutions are consistent with recent studies in the area.