Power Laws Governing Historical Earthquakes in the Apennine Chain (Southern Italy)

Rank-ordering analysis is applied to the intertimes between seismic events recorded in the Apennine belt between 40–42° N and 14–16° E from the 15th century onwards. It shows a power law capable of governing the intertimes between 1529 and 368 months and another power law which approximates a random simulation, for the intertimes shorter than 368 months. Only the first power law allows the computation of the return period of major events. Earthquakes with the same energy that are aligned according to different power laws imply the presence of two different populations, indicating, in turn, that the physics of seismic phenomena in the region examined is not straightforward, that the stress is probably not unidirectional and that it acts on a non-isotropic medium. The most probable estimated intertime value for the next event is found to be equal to 60 ± 20 years.     

The variations of stable carbon isotope ratio of land plant-derived n-alkanes in deep-sea sediments from the Bering Sea and the North Pacific Ocean during the last 250,000 years

Two piston cores, one located far from the continents (The North Pacific Ocean: ES core), and another located comparatively closer to the continents (The Bering Sea: BOW-8a core) were investigated to reconstruct environmental changes on source land areas. The results show significant contribution of terrestrial organic matter to sediments in both cores. The δ¹³C values of n-C₂₇, n-C₂₉, and n-C₃₁ alkanes in sediments from the North Pacific ES core show significant glacial to interglacial variation whereas those from the Bering Sea core do not. Variations of δ¹³C values of land plant n-alkanes are related to the environmental or vegetational changes in the source land areas. Environmental changes, especially, aridity, rainfall, and pCO₂ during glacial/interglacial transitional periods can affect vegetation, and therefore C₃ / C₄ plant ratios, resulting in δ¹³C changes in the preserved land plant biomarkers. Maximum values of δ¹³C as well as maximum average chain length values of long chain n-alkanes in the ES core occur mostly at the interglacial to glacial transition zones reflecting a time lag related to incorporation of living organic matter into soil and transportation into ocean basins via wind and/or ability of C₄ plants to adapt for a longer period before being replaced by C₃ plants when subjected to gradual climatic changes. Irregular variations with no clear glacial to interglacial trends in the BOW-8a core may result from complex mixture of aerosols from westerly winds and riverine organic matter from the Bering Sea catchments. In addition, terrestrial organic matter entering the Bering Sea could originate from multiple pathways including eolian, riverine, and ice rafted debris, and possibly be disturbed by turbidity and other local currents which can induce re-suspension and re-sedimentation causing an obliterated time relation in the Bering Sea biomarker records.     

Bayesian Analysis of the Discovery Process Model Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Based upon the Bayesian framework for analyzing the discovery sequence in a play, a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler—the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm, is employed to sample model parameters and pool sizes from their joint posterior distribution. The proposed sampling scheme ensures that the parameter space of changing dimension can be traversed in spite of the unknown number of pools. The equal sample weights make it easy to obtain the confidence intervals and assess the statistical error in the estimates, so that the statistical behaviors of the discovery process modeling can be well understood. Two application examples of the Halten play in Norwegian Sea and the Bashaw reef play in the Western Canada Basin show that, the computational advantage of this method to the simple Monte Carlo integration is considerable. In order to increase the convergence speed of the sample chains to the posterior distributions, several parallel simulations with different starting values are recommended.     

旅游者空间行为及其国内外研究综述

学者们对于旅游者空间行为往往是基于这样的理解:旅游者空间行为是旅行行为地域移动的游览过程。以动态分析视角,对旅游者空间行为概念进行重新界定,认为旅游者空间行为有广义和狭义之分,并对其国内外相关研究进行系统总结和评价。     

天津蓟县雾迷山旋回层基本模式及其马尔柯夫链分析

津蓟县的中元古界雾迷山组,是一套碳酸盐岩地层,具近似对称相序组构的环潮坪型碳酸盐米级旋回层序特别以育。其近似对称的相序组构及普遍的1：4叠加形态,表明它们与短偏心率旋回具有成因关联,被命名为雾迷山旋回层来代表真正的碳酸盐沉积旋回。雾迷山旋回层是与高频率产面变化相关的环境加深及环境变浅过程的产物。马尔柯夫链分析的结果表明了雾迷山旋回层的基本相序模式是客观存在的,由于它们以瞬时暴露间断面为界,因而与Vail等（1977）的层序地层概念体系中所定义的“准层序”存在明显的差异。尽管难以断定前寒武纪地球轨道效应旋回的周期安全与显生宙一致,但是,七级韵律层、六级旋回层及五级准层序组之间的垂直叠置形态,以及由它们所指示的周期时限,与显生宙温室效应时期的轨道效应旋回周期是大体一致的。     

Discrete simulations of a triaxial compression test for sand by DEM

A quasi‐static homogeneous drained triaxial compression test on cohesionless sand under constant lateral pressure was simulated using a three‐dimensional discrete element method. Grains were modelled by means of particle clusters composed of rigid spheres or spheres with contact moments imitating irregular particle shapes. Attention was paid to the effect of initial void ratio and grain shape mixture on the shear strength, volume changes, force chains, kinetic, elastic and dissipated energies. In addition, the effect of the mean grain size, grain size distribution, grain size range, specimen size and roughness and stiffness of boundaries was numerically analysed in initially dense sand. Some numerical results were compared with available experimental results. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrologic evaluation of spatially disaggregated global ensemble rainfall forecasts

A statistic–stochastic multi‐fractal downscaling technique was evaluated from a hydrologic point of view. Ensemble hydrologic forecasts with a time step of 3 h were performed for original and disaggregated ensemble rainfall forecasts issued by the Canadian Global Ensemble Prediction System in its 2009 operational version. This hydro‐meteorological operational forecasting chain was conducted using the hydrological model SWMM5. The model was implemented on a small 6‐km² urban catchment located in the Québec City region. The hydrological evaluation was based on the comparison of forecasted flows to the observed ones, calculating several deterministic and probabilistic scores, and drawing rank histograms and reliability diagrams. Disaggregated products led to a better representation of the ensemble members' dispersion. This disaggregation technique represents an interesting way of bridging the gap between the meteorological models' resolution and the high degree of spatial precision sometimes required by hydrological models in their precipitation representation. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

广义Khasminskii条件下非线性混杂随机时滞微分方程的解的存在唯一性

利用广义伊藤公式证明了混杂随机时滞微分方程(SDDE)在局部Lipschitz和广义Khasminskii条件下存在唯一解,从而涵盖了一大类非线性混杂SDDE.最后给出实例说明了理论的可行性.     

一种基于空间分析服务链组合的自然资源保护红线审计模型方法

区别于传统的审计方法,针对领导干部自然资源资产离任审计,提出一种空间分析服务链组合的自然资源保护红线审计空间分析建模方法,实现了自然资源保护红线审计的地理处理分析服务链模型,并将其应用到云南省领导干部自然资源资产离任审计工作中。实验表明,该模型具有可行性能够辅助审计部门工作人员快速发现疑点线索,简化用户操作,提高审计效率。     

Lipid characteristics of a seep clam,Mesolinga soliditesta: Comparison with those of two coastal clams,Meretrix lamarckii and Ruditapes philippinarum

The lipids and fatty acids of two coastal clams, Meretrix lamarckii and Ruditapes philippinarum, collected at 5 and 1 m of depth, and a seep clam, Mesolinga soliditesta, collected at 331 m of depth, were examined to assess their lipid physiology and trophic relationship with their diets. The major fatty acids of lipids in Mer. lamarckii and R. philippinarum were 14:0, 16:0, 18:0, 16:1n-7, 18:1n-9, 18:1n-7, 20:4n-6, 20:5n-3, and 22:6n-3, while those of Mes. soliditesta were 16:0, 18:0, 16:1n-7, 18:1n-7, 20:1n-7, 20:1n-13, 20:2n-7, 15 (Δ5,13-20:2), and 22:2n-7,15 (Δ7,15-22:2). The major polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) in the Mer. lamarckii and R. philippinarum lipids consisted of various n-3 and n-6 long-chain (LC) PUFAs, such as 20:4n-6, 22:4n-6, 20:5n-3, 22:5n-3, and 22:6n-3, while those in Mes. soliditesta muscle and viscera included various n-4 family PUFAs (18:3n-7, 18:4n-4, 20:2n-7, and 20:3n-7) with limited kinds of n-3 and n-6 PUFAs (20:4n-6 and 20:5n-3). These findings indicate that, like other common shallow-water clams, Mer. lamarckii and R. philippinarum ingest phytoplanktonic n-3 and n-6 LC-PUFAs, whereas Mes. soliditesta utilizes limited kinds of n-3 and n-6 LC-PUFAs. In contrast to the other two bivalves species, Mes. soliditesta yielded various n-4 and n-7 (n-4/n-7) PUFAs, which were assimilated from the chemosynthetic symbionts. The high diversity of PUFAs contained in the Mes. soliditesta lipids (n-3, n-4 family, and n-6 PUFAs) suggests that this species mixotrophically utilized both photosynthetic products and vent chemosynthetic nutrition derived from geothermal energy.