Relationship between Soil＇s Seasonal Freezing Process and Daily Accumulative Hourly Temperature in Northern Xinjiang Region

传统的度日因子模型很难分辨在结冻期土壤每日结冻和解冻的过程,而日小时积温可以区分正积温和负积温对土壤冻结过程的影响.利用北疆地区1951-2010年气象站数据和决策树算法,分析计算日小时积温及表层5cm和10cm土壤冻结状态数据及日小时积温对季节性冻土冻结现象的影响.结果表明：在北疆范围年小时正积温以每年平均160℃增长,而年小时负积温以每年平均153℃减少.季节性冻土发生冻结现象所需的临界值分布与北疆地区气候和土壤分布基本一致,但仍存在空间差异性.北疆地区5cm土壤结冻所需的日小时负积温为-50℃以下,而5cm到10cm土壤结冻所需日小时负积温的平均值差值为-15℃左右.与日最低气温和日平均气温作为土壤结冻判据相比,日小时积温临界值作为判据可获得较高的精确度.在昌吉地区和阿勒泰地区冻土的平均深度随着日小时负积温临界值的增加而减少.     

The postglacial history of three Picea species in New England, USA

Given the difficulty of separating the three Picea species—P. glauca, P. mariana, and P. rubens (white, black, and red spruce)—in the pollen record, little is known about their unique histories in eastern North America following deglaciation. Here we report the first use of a classification tree analysis (CART) to distinguish pollen grains of these species. It was successfully applied to fossil pollen from eight sites in Maine and one in Massachusetts. We focused on the late glacial/early Holocene (14,000 to 8000 cal yr B.P.) and the late Holocene (1400 cal yr B.P. to present)—the two key periods since deglaciation when Picea has been abundant in the region. The result shows a shift from a Picea forest of P. glauca and P. mariana in the late glacial to a forest of P. rubens and P. mariana in the late Holocene. The small number of P. rubens grains identified from the late glacial/early Holocene samples (<5%) suggests that that species was either absent or rare at most of the sites. The occurrence and distribution of the three species do not reveal any geographic or temporal trend during late glacial time, but the data suggest that they were distributed in local patches on the landscape. The results of this study indicate that the recent population expansion of Picea (1000 to 500 cal yr B.P.) was likely the first time since deglaciation that P. rubens was abundant in the region.     

基于WBS-RBS的地铁基坑故障树风险识别与分析

针对地铁基坑工程环境复杂、影响因素多的特点,提出以故障树分析为基础结合工作分解结构（WBS）-风险分解结构（WBS）进行风险识别的方法。此方法引入WBS-RBS将地铁基坑工程工作分解结构和风险源分解结构耦合判断并说明相应风险因素或风险事件,并按照故障树建树原则根据彼此间的逻辑关系,用逻辑门连接上下层事件,形成地铁基坑工程主要故障树。在此基础上,对风险因素进行敏感性分析并提出相应的预防措施。     

How do machine learning techniques help in increasing accuracy of landslide susceptibility maps?

Landslides are abundant in mountainous regions.They are responsible for substantial damages and losses in those areas.The A1 Highway,which is an important road in Algeria,was sometimes constructed in mountainous and/or semi-mountainous areas.Previous studies of landslide susceptibility mapping conducted near this road using statistical and expert methods have yielded ordinary results.In this research,we are interested in how do machine learning techniques help in increasing accuracy of landslide susceptibility maps in the vicinity of the A1 Highway corridor.To do this,an important section at Ain Bouziane(NE,Algeria) is chosen as a case study to evaluate the landslide susceptibility using three different machine learning methods,namely,random forest(RF),support vector machine(SVM),and boosted regression tree(BRT).First,an inventory map and nine input factors were prepared for landslide susceptibility mapping(LSM) analyses.The three models were constructed to find the most susceptible areas to this phenomenon.The results were assessed by calculating the receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve,the standard error(Std.error),and the confidence interval(CI) at 95%.The RF model reached the highest predictive accuracy(AUC=97.2%) comparatively to the other models.The outcomes of this research proved that the obtained machine learning models had the ability to predict future landslide locations in this important road section.In addition,their application gives an improvement of the accuracy of LSMs near the road corridor.The machine learning models may become an important prediction tool that will identify landslide alleviation actions.     

乌鲁木齐河山区流域360年径流量的重建

本文利用在乌鲁木齐河山区流域所建立的树轮年表，重建了乌鲁木齐河山区流域３６０年上年７月～当年３月的平均径流量。校准方程的相关系数为０．６７０，交叉检验的误差缩减值达０．３６６。在重建的３６０年径流量的变化中，有４个偏丰期和３个偏枯期，第２，３两个偏丰期与乌鲁木齐河河源１号冰川的两次冰进期相对应。对重建径流量的丰枯频率分析发现，平水年份出现最多，偏枯水年份多于偏丰水年份约５．８％，特枯水年没有出现，特丰水年出现６次，约占１．７％。这表明３６０年来径流量变化基本上稳定。     

地球化学填图与地球化学块体的谱系分析——编号系统及谱系树图的自动绘制

中国的地球化学填图研究工作起步较早并发展成为在国际上具有明显优势的学科。在此基础上提出的地球化学块体理论通过一定的编号系统绘制谱系树图来追索某元素在块体内部逐步浓集成矿的轨迹。通过谱系树图可以发现不同级别的子块体之间的亲缘关系,研究它们在时间和空间上的分布规律,结合已发现矿床的信息,预测潜在矿床的分布及其储量,从而指导找矿工作。提出了一种全新的谱系编号系统并编制了在计算机上自动绘制谱系树图的软件,同时实现了与原有编号系统的一致,解决了长期以来谱系树图不能自动绘制的问题,为地球化学块体的研究提供了一个很好的工具。     

可变网格的有限单元分析在边坡稳定计算中的应用

本文在非线性有限单元法的基础上，引进八节点的狭长单元来描述边坡中的滑动面，同时对于有限元单元网格可调节点坐标进行变更形成新的网格，于是利用原有基本网格架，通过多次有限元分析求出边坡中可能滑动面的稳定系数曲线Ｋ＝ｆ（），并进而确定最危险的滑动面，在此基础上开展一系列稳定分析工作。     

Central England temperature since AD 1850: the potential of stable carbon isotopes in British oak trees to reconstruct past summer temperatures

In regions with seasonal temperate climatic regimes, tree growth is rarely controlled by any single environmental factor. As a consequence, the development of robust palaeoclimate reconstructions has proved challenging. Tree‐ring stable carbon isotope ratios (δ¹³C), however, are controlled primarily by photosynthetic rate, not by net growth. Therefore, at sites where climatic controls on tree‐ring growth are not strongly expressed, a robust (isotopic) palaeoclimate signal may still potentially be preserved. This hypothesis was tested using a 160‐year record of δ¹³C measured from the pooled latewood cellulose of six Quercus petraea L. (sessile oak) trees from Allt Lan‐las in West Wales, UK. Raw δ¹³C values were corrected for changes in the isotopic ratio of atmospheric carbon dioxide and for changes in the behaviour of trees due to the increasing availability of atmospheric CO₂ since AD 1850. Strong correlations with local summer temperature and sunshine are reported, and also with the Central England Temperature record over the full length of the isotopic chronology (AD 1850–2010) (r = 0.69, P < 0.001). We conclude that tree‐ring stable isotopes can be used to extract strong palaeoclimate signals even from oak trees growing in a temperate maritime climate. This demonstrates the potential for extracting robust palaeoclimatic information from the very long and well‐replicated oak chronologies which have been developed in western and central Europe primarily for dating rather than palaeoclimatic research purposes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dam overtopping risk assessment considering inspection program

Safety inspection of large dams in Taiwan is conducted every 5 years. The practice does not take into consideration uncertainty of dam conditions. The goal of this study is to determine the optimal dam inspection interval under the consideration of overtopping risk incorporating uncertainty gate availability. In earlier studies, assessment of overtopping risk only considered the uncertainties in reservoir properties and natural randomness of hydrologic events without giving much thought to the availability of spillway gates. As a result, the overtopping risk could be underestimated. In this study, an innovative concept is proposed to evaluate dam overtopping by taking into account spillway gate availability. The framework consists of three parts: (1) evaluation of conditional overtopping risk for different numbers of malfunctioning spillway gates; (2) evaluation of spillway gate availability; and (3) dam inspection scheduling. Furthermore, considerations are given to overtopping risk, inspection cost, and dam break cost for determining the optimal inspection schedule. The methodology is applied to the Shihmen Reservoir in Taiwan and to evaluate its time-dependent overtopping risk. Results show that overtopping risk considering the availability of the spillway gates is higher than the one without considering the availability of the spillway gates.     

Reconstruction of the rainy season precipitation in central Jordan

Abstract

Concurrent reconstructions of October—April precipitation at Madaba and Rabba gauging sites in central Jordan back to the year 1777 using a multivariate regression model are presented. The reconstruction model was calibrated using concurrent precipitation and tree-ring data for the period 1953–1981 The regression equation is significant (p < 0.05), while reconstructions account for 53% and 48% (adjusted for lost degrees of freedom) of the total variability of the precipitation at the Madaba and Rabba sites, respectively. The validation statistic obtained indicates the existence of worthwhile information in the reconstructions. A threshold of 1 standard deviation below the mean is used to define extremely dry years. The concurrent analysis of the reconstructed precipitation at both sites indicates the occurrence of 24 regional extremely dry periods of between 1 and 2 years' duration. Dry periods of more than 2 years' duration rarely occur. This study indicates the occurrence of noticeable extremely dry individual years: 1800, 1827, 1895 and 1933. The estimated mean recurrence times of extreme droughts are 9.3 and 51.3 years for droughts of 1-year and 2-years duration, respectively.