多维度视角下新疆农村经济可持续发展

科技进步与水土资源是促进经济可持续发展的有力杠杆及资源保证,劳动力是农村经济发展的重要主体。运用生态足迹理论计算了1990-2015年的新疆农村生态人口承载力,该指标代表了农村经济可持续发展水平,并建立与农业全要素生产率、科技投入占总投入比率、水资源灌溉利用率、耕地复耕指数、新疆劳动力转移、劳动力转移性收入的VAR模型。研究结果表明：新疆农村人均资源占有量不断地增大,可承载生态人口数量逐年下降;科技投入目前对于新疆农村经济可持续发展的影响并不明显,短期看来,农业全要素生产率对于其发展有抑制作用,但长期看来有巨大的促进作用;在短期,水资源灌溉利用率有抑制作用,但在长期,有拉动作用;耕地复耕指数长期有抑制作用;短期来说,劳动力转移和劳动力转移性收入对于其发展有促进作用,长期有抑制作用。     

海岸侵蚀灾害管理中的几项基础工作

讨论了作为海岸带管理工作中一项重要管理内容──海岸侵蚀灾害管理中的几项基础性工作,主要讨论了灾害评估的意义;海岸侵蚀灾害管理基础图件和专业图件的名称及主要内容;建立海岸侵蚀灾害信息系统的意义和主要内容;关于海岸侵蚀灾害管理法的意义和急迫性;提出了建立禁建区和禁采区的意义和紧迫性,并指出在海岸带开发建设中要统一管理,全面规划,注意到海岸带生态环境的特殊性。总之在海岸侵蚀灾害管理中,首先要做好基础工作,在此基础上做好法制建设和依法管理。     

关于海岸带开发“稳健管理模型”的初步设想

海岸带可持续发展需要具有数据分析和决策的双重功能的计算机“稳健管理模型”。在技术上 ,该管理模型可利用地理信息系统和数据库技术 ,实现法律文件、区域性社会和经济发展规划、海岸带自然环境数据、以及土地利用现状资料的贮存和分析。然后通过一个决策软件 ,将有关资料转化为可持续发展的若干条最大容量规则 ;该软件以海岸带开发项目所需的必要条件为输入参数 ,通过内部一致性检验确定这些条件是否符合可持续发展规则 ,从而对待开发项目作出批准与否的管理决策。随着计算机技术的发展 ,开发这样一个稳健管理模型的时机已经成熟。     

河西内陆河径流对气候变化的响应及其流域适应性水资源管理研究

为探讨河西地区内陆河径流对气候变化的响应, 选取1955-2008年石羊河、黑河和疏勒河的河流流量资料进行计算和分析. 结果表明: 50多年来, 石羊河年径流总体呈明显下降趋势, 黑河呈略有增加趋势, 疏勒河呈明显增加趋势, 地域上呈现愈往西部的河流年径流量增加愈明显. 三大河流进入1990年代后有下降趋势, 进入21世纪均有明显增多趋势. 三大河流径流对气候变化有不同响应, 石羊河流域主要受季风气候影响, 气候变暖, 蒸发加剧, 水分散失量大, 是造成径流减少的主要原因;黑河和疏勒河流域主要受西风带环流影响, 径流增多的重要原因是气候变暖降水明显增多. 为减缓气候变化对流域水资源利用的不利影响, 在分析三大内陆河流量对气候变化响应特征的基础上, 提出了适应性水资源管理的建议. 建议应提高水资源利用效率;改变生产方式, 调整农业种植业结构与布局;加大祁连山自然保护区建设, 搞好水资源可持续利用;积极开发祁连山丰富的空中云水资源、哺育祁连山冰川等流域适应性水资源管理对策, 对流域进行综合治理与开发利用, 这些措施和对策将为流域水资源开发提供科学依据.     

Optimisation of underwater visual census and controlled angling methods for monitoring subtidal temperate reef fish communities

Standardised sampling protocols for monitoring fish stocks are essential to assess changes in stock status and provide a means to evaluate the effectiveness of fisheries management measures, such as marine protected areas (MPAs). This study aimed to optimise two standard sampling methods, namely underwater visual census (UVC) and controlled angling, for assessing subtidal reef fish communities. In terms of efficiency, variability and bias, UVC transects were found to be superior to point counts. For controlled angling, an effort of two angler-hours per fishing station provided low catch variability, high catch per unit effort and a representative catch. Whereas UVC provided less variable estimates of relative density, controlled angling provided greater sampling efficiency. It is thus recommended that the two methods be used in conjunction. The optimal sampling protocols identified are suitable for rapid assessments or long-term monitoring of subtidal, temperate reef fish communities.     

Technical change in fisheries

Technical change in fisheries is an under-researched area in resource economics and management. This is surprising, because technical progress is the main driver of the development in fishing power and capacity. This article reviews the recent research and development in technology that have occurred in fisheries. New policy implications of introducing technical change into the standard bioeconomic model are illustrated. Bycatch saving technical change is critical to bycatch reduction and ecosystem based fisheries management, and optimal policies cost-effectively reduce bycatch, create incentives to induce bycatch saving technical change, and establish technology policy for research and development.     

Australia’s no-take marine protected areas: Appropriate conservation or inappropriate management of fishing?

The absence of properly identified mechanisms to adequately protect the marine environment remains a major shortcoming in Australia’s commitment to biodiversity conservation. The current commitment to a National Representative System of Marine Protected Areas (NRSMPA) falls far short of providing adequate protection against the suite of existing and potential threats even though areas are designated as being ‘protected’. In this paper it is argued that the actions taken under the NRSMPA are disproportionately concentrated on regulating fishing, including the closing of areas in so-called sanctuary zones to all types of fishing. In the absence of clearly identified threats from most forms of fishing and without assessment of how best to manage those few fishing threats that have been identified, such actions are inefficient and mostly inappropriate. Moreover, they do not provide adequate protection against the full suite of threats to marine environments. Adequate measures for the proper conservation of these areas and/or the protection of marine biodiversity more generally are not being provided and in most cases threats are not even adequately described and evaluated.     

A tool for site prioritisation of marine protected areas under data poor conditions

A challenge of managing data poor fisheries lies in overcoming uncertainties associated with a lack of information on biological and socio-economic conditions. This paper focuses on site prioritisation for marine protected areas, a process that usually imposes moderate to heavy demands on data, time, local expertise, and funds. A fuzzy logic decision support tool for zoning marine areas that is suitable for use in data poor conditions is developed. This tool, the Protected Area Suitability Index (PASI), assesses the suitability of sites for protection based on fishers’ preferences for that site and the site’s conservation value. Only eight input attributes are required to run the PASI, which operates on a series of heuristic rules to estimate a site suitability score that ranges from 0 to 10, where 10 indicates that a site is highly suitable for being protected from fishing. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the PASI is relatively robust, and produces reliable results even as the system is degraded by the loss of data. Eighteen actively fished sites and 11 sites that are closed to fishing are assessed to evaluate how well the PASI is able to distinguish differences between sites. The estimated scores are significantly different (p<0.05), whereby non-fished sites are scored as being more suitable for protection than fished sites. The PASI can be used as a decision support tool to facilitate systematic marine spatial management under data poor conditions, especially in the task of identifying suitable sites for protection.     

Macrophyte management: An integrated perspective

A concept of aquatic macrophyte management that integrates the positive and negative aspects of vegetation in lakes and rivers is discussed. This integrated approach involves three factors: macrophyte control, macrophyte enhancement, and identification and resolution of the conflicts created by multiple use of a waterbody. The primary decision in macrophyte management programmes must be whether to optimise for single‐purpose or for multipurpose use of the waterbody. Both technical (macrophyte control and enhancement) and social (conflict resolution) procedures are required to solve problems associated with the macrophyte status of multipurpose waterbodies.