高原季风对500hPa中纬度西风带活动的影响

利用1948--2008年NCEP／NCAR逐月再分析资料和1958—2007年中国560站夏季降水资料,设计了一个区域西风指数,探讨了高原夏季风和500百帕中纬度西风带活动的时间一频率多层次年际、年代际时间尺度变化特征以及对我国夏季降水的影响。结果表明：高原夏季风对区域西风带活动具有显著的影响,近61年来,两者总体变化趋势相反,前者增强后者减弱。除了都具有1—2年、27—28年和线性趋势变化的共同周期外,还呈现出各自的周期变化,并且均发生过一次年代际气候跃变现象,前者发生在20世纪70年代中期,后者发生在80年代中期,高原夏季风由偏弱转为偏强,区域西风由偏强转入偏弱,在跃变前后两者各种周期的时间尺度和强度存在明显的不同。如果排除1—2年周期的不确定性,预计接下来高原夏季风将直接进入偏弱期,区域西风指数可能在3—4年后才转入偏强期,并且高原夏季风会比区域西风指数提前发生突变,对区域西风指数具有一定的指示意义。高原夏季风不仅自身对我国夏季降水产生重要的作用,同时,它通过影响中纬度西风带的活动,间接地影响着我国的夏季降水。     

Process identification at a slow‐moving landslide in the Vorarlberg Alps

A fine‐grained slope that exhibits slow movement rates was investigated to understand how geohydrological processes contribute to a consecutive development of mass movements in the Vorarlberg Alps, Austria. For that purpose intensive hydrometeorological, hydrogeological and geotechnical observations as well as surveying of surface movement rates were conducted during 1998–2001. Subsurface water dynamics at the creeping slope turned out to be dominated by a three‐dimensional pressure system. The pressure reaction is triggered by fast infiltration of surface water and subsequent lateral water flow in the south‐western part of the hillslope. The related pressure signal was shown to propagate further downhill, causing fast reactions of the piezometric head at 5·5 m depth on a daily time scale. The observed pressure reactions might belong to a temporary hillslope water body that extends further downhill. The related buoyancy forces could be one of the driving forces for the mass movement. A physically based hydrological model was adopted to model simultaneously surface and subsurface water dynamics including evapotranspiration and runoff production. It was possible to reproduce surface runoff and observed pressure reactions in principle. However, as soil hydraulic functions were only estimated on pedotransfer functions, a quantitative comparison between observed and simulated subsurface dynamics is not feasible. Nevertheless, the results suggest that it is possible to reconstruct important spatial structures based on sparse observations in the field which allow reasonable simulations with a physically based hydrological model. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A proposed structure–groundwater model: application to chalky media of the Paris Basin

The groundwater flow in a fissured chalky environment at the northern border of the Paris Basin depends on several geological and hydrogeological parameters. Although the studied sector of the basin presents a homogeneous rock type, it is affected by a fracture network. In this type of environment, in which the permeability is low, the groundwater flow displays significant disruption, which is localized in the Fruges region (northern France). The interconnection of the discontinuities (network of fault and/or joints) is reliant on the structural control of groundwater flow through increases in the hydraulic connection between the unsaturated and the saturated zone. The methodology developed herein makes use of microstructural and regional analysis of the fracture patterns, and allowed consideration of the piezometric variations of the chalk aquifer during periods of low and high groundwater levels (April and October 2001) and a diagraphic representation of the estimated physical parameters (electrical resistivity). This enabled us to construct a ‘flow structure’ conceptual model in which we identify two types of faults: tight walls and flow paths that control the piezometric heads and the flow rate. Model validation was carried out on a similar sector. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydroclimatic teleconnection between global sea surface temperature and rainfall over India at subdivisional monthly scale

It is well established that sea surface temperature (SST) plays a significant role in the hydrologic cycle in which precipitation is the most important part. In this study, the influence of SST on Indian subdivisional monthly rainfall is investigated. Both spatial and temporal influences are investigated. The most influencing regions of sea surface are identified for different subdivisions and for different overlapping seasons in the year. The relative importance of SST, land surface temperature (LST) and ocean–land temperature contrast (OLTC) and their variation from subdivision to subdivision and from season to season are also studied. It is observed that LST does not show much similarity with rainfall series, but, in general, OLTC shows relatively higher influence in the pre‐monsoon and early monsoon periods, whereas SST plays a more important role in late‐ and post‐monsoon periods. The influence of OLTC is seen to be mostly confined to the Indian Ocean region, whereas the effect of SST indicates the climatic teleconnection between Indian regional rainfall and climate indices in Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

First‐year post‐fire erosion rates in Bitterroot National Forest,Montana

Accelerated runoff and erosion commonly occur following forest fires due to combustion of protective forest floor material, which results in bare soil being exposed to overland flow and raindrop impact, as well as water repellent soil conditions. After the 2000 Valley Complex Fires in the Bitterroot National Forest of west‐central Montana, four sets of six hillslope plots were established to measure first‐year post‐wildfire erosion rates on steep slopes (greater than 50%) that had burned with high severity. Silt fences were installed at the base of each plot to trap eroded sediment from a contributing area of 100 m². Rain gauges were installed to correlate rain event characteristics to the event sediment yield. After each sediment‐producing rain event, the collected sediment was removed from the silt fence and weighed on site, and a sub‐sample taken to determine dry weight, particle size distribution, organic matter content, and nutrient content of the eroded material. Rainfall intensity was the only significant factor in determining post‐fire erosion rates from individual storm events. Short duration, high intensity thunderstorms with a maximum 10‐min rainfall intensity of 75 mm h^?1 caused the highest erosion rates (greater than 20 t ha^?1). Long duration, low intensity rains produced little erosion (less than 0·01 t ha^?1). Total C and N in the collected sediment varied directly with the organic matter; because the collected sediment was mostly mineral soil, the C and N content was small. Minimal amounts of Mg, Ca, and K were detected in the eroded sediments. The mean annual erosion rate predicted by Disturbed WEPP (Water Erosion Prediction Project) was 15% less than the mean annual erosion rate measured, which is within the accuracy range of the model. Published in 2007 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Storm‐event rainfall–runoff modelling approach for ungauged sites in Taiwan

This work develops a top‐down modelling approach for storm‐event rainfall–runoff model calibration at unmeasured sites in Taiwan. Twenty‐six storm events occurring in seven sub‐catchments in the Kao‐Ping River provided the analytical data set. Regional formulas for three important features of a streamflow hydrograph, i.e. time to peak, peak flow, and total runoff volume, were developed via the characteristics of storm event and catchment using multivariate regression analysis. Validation of the regional formulas demonstrates that they reasonably predict the three features of a streamflow hydrograph at ungauged sites. All of the sub‐catchments in the study area were then adopted as ungauged areas, and the three streamflow hydrograph features were calculated by the regional formulas and substituted into the fuzzy multi‐objective function for rainfall–runoff model calibration. Calibration results show that the proposed approach can effectively simulate the streamflow hydrographs at the ungauged sites. The simulated hydrographs more closely resemble observed hydrographs than hydrographs synthesized using the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) dimensionless unit hydrograph method, a conventional method for hydrograph estimation at ungauged sites in Taiwan. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multifractal analysis as a tool for validating a rainfall model

A multifractal analysis was carried out in order to validate the simulation of hourly rainfall records of a local climate model for the Iberian Peninsula. Observed and simulated hourly rainfall data from four locations in Andalusia (southern Spain) were used to carry out the study. In order to detect the influence of the length of the data series on the results, two different sizes were used for the real data: 4 years, and 20 years. The results show that algebraic tails are required to fit the probability distribution of extreme rain event sizes, and rain and dry event durations for both kinds of rainfall data. Similar results are found for the extreme rain event sizes and dry event durations fits when the real and synthetic data are considered. Nevertheless, some differences appear in the cases of rain event durations. The detection of the presence of a first‐order multifractal phase transition associated with a critical moment in the empirical moment scaling exponent function and the results of the extreme rain event sizes fits, reveal that real rainfall is a self‐organized criticality (SOC) process. That behaviour is less evident in the simulated rainfall series. The same ‘synoptic maximum’ value was found for each place with both types of rainfall data. A time clustering analysis was carried out applying the count‐based periodogram and the Fano factor methods. Some periodicities have been detected in the periodograms, especially for the longest real rainfall data series. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rainfall–runoff trends in the south‐eastern USA: 1938–2005

An extensive dataset (230 precipitation gauges and 79 stream gauges) was used to analyse rainfall–runoff relationships in 10 subregions of a 482000 km² area in the south‐eastern USA (Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia). The average annual rainfall and runoff for this study area between 1938 and 2005 were 1201 and 439 mm, respectively. Average runoff/rainfall ratios during this period varied between 0·24 in the southernmost Coastal Plain subregion to 0·64 in the Blue Ridge Province. Watershed elevation and relief are the principal determinants governing the conversion of rainfall to runoff. Temporal rainfall variation throughout the south‐eastern USA ranges from ～40% above and below normal while the variation for runoff is higher, from ? 75% to + 100%. In any given year there can exist a ± 25–50% error in predicted runoff deviation using the annual rainfall–runoff regression. Fast Fourier Transform and autoregressive spectral analysis revealed dominant cyclicities for rainfall and runoff between 14 and 17 years. Secondary periodicities were typically between 6–7 and 10–12 years. The inferred cyclicity may be related to ENSO and/or Central North Pacific atmospheric phenomena. Mann–Kendall analyses indicate that there were no consistent statistically significant temporal trends with respect to south‐eastern US rainfall and runoff during the study period. The results of U‐tests similarly indicated that rainfall between 1996 and 2005 was not statistically higher or lower than during earlier in the study period. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Thermodynamic properties of snow cover on sea ice during the austral summer in Prydz Bay,East Antarctica

The thermodynamic properties of snow cover on sea ice play a key role in the ice-ocean-atmosphere system and have been a focus of recent scientific research. In this study, we investigated the thermodynamic properties of snow cover on sea ice in the Nella Fjord, Prydz Bay, East Antarctica(69°20′S, 76°07′E), near the Chinese Antarctic Zhongshan Station. Our observations were carried out during the 29th Chinese National Antarctic Research Expedition. We found that the vertical temperature profile of snow cover changed considerably in response to changes in air temperature and solar radiation during the summer. Associated with the changes in the temperature profile were fluctuations in the temperature gradient within the upper 10 cm of the snow cover. Results of previous research have shown that the thermal conductivity of snow is strongly correlated with snow density. To calculate the thermal conductivity in this study, we measured densities in three snow pits. The calculated thermal conductivity ranged from 0.258–0.569 W?m-1?K-1. We present these datasets to show how involved parameters changed, and to contribute to a better understanding of melting processes in the snow cover on sea ice.     

青海互助一次局地强降水天气多普勒雷达回波分析

利用西宁CINRAD/CD多普勒天气雷达资料及自动站观测数据等从影响降水的主要因子方面探讨了2011年7月2日晚青海互助县一次局地强降水的成因,结果表明:多单体强回波带的活动是造成互助短时强降水的主要原因;速度图上强的辐合和逆风区是预报强降水的关键因子;垂直风廓线图上强烈的垂直风切变是不稳定能量积聚的表现,与强降水联系紧密;垂直累计液态含水量(VIL)和回波顶高也能为强降水预报提供有效信息。