全文获取类型
收费全文 | 4172篇 |
免费 | 1492篇 |
国内免费 | 2584篇 |
专业分类
测绘学 | 55篇 |
大气科学 | 5049篇 |
地球物理 | 643篇 |
地质学 | 1057篇 |
海洋学 | 308篇 |
天文学 | 17篇 |
综合类 | 192篇 |
自然地理 | 927篇 |
出版年
2024年 | 68篇 |
2023年 | 144篇 |
2022年 | 231篇 |
2021年 | 289篇 |
2020年 | 282篇 |
2019年 | 378篇 |
2018年 | 258篇 |
2017年 | 299篇 |
2016年 | 289篇 |
2015年 | 339篇 |
2014年 | 424篇 |
2013年 | 493篇 |
2012年 | 436篇 |
2011年 | 440篇 |
2010年 | 289篇 |
2009年 | 365篇 |
2008年 | 335篇 |
2007年 | 463篇 |
2006年 | 390篇 |
2005年 | 322篇 |
2004年 | 249篇 |
2003年 | 241篇 |
2002年 | 173篇 |
2001年 | 191篇 |
2000年 | 190篇 |
1999年 | 104篇 |
1998年 | 103篇 |
1997年 | 96篇 |
1996年 | 69篇 |
1995年 | 75篇 |
1994年 | 57篇 |
1993年 | 42篇 |
1992年 | 29篇 |
1991年 | 30篇 |
1990年 | 11篇 |
1989年 | 16篇 |
1988年 | 17篇 |
1987年 | 2篇 |
1986年 | 3篇 |
1985年 | 5篇 |
1984年 | 3篇 |
1983年 | 1篇 |
1981年 | 2篇 |
1980年 | 4篇 |
1954年 | 1篇 |
排序方式: 共有8248条查询结果,搜索用时 31 毫秒
981.
ABSTRACTIn this work, the accuracy of four gridded precipitation datasets – Climatic Research Unit (CRU), Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), PERSIANN-Climate Data Record (PCDR) and University of Delaware (UDEL) – is evaluated across Iran to find an alternative source of precipitation data. Monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation data from 85 synoptic stations for the period 1984–2013 were used as the basis for the evaluations. Our results indicate that all datasets underestimate and overestimate precipitation in stations with annual precipitation greater than 600 and less than 100 mm, respectively. However, all datasets correctly recognize regimes of precipitation, but with a bias in amount of precipitation. Our spatio-temporal assessments show that GPCC is the most suitable dataset to be used over Iran. Both UDEL and CRU can be considered as the second and third most suitable datasets, while PCDR showed the weakest performance among the studied datasets. 相似文献
982.
ABSTRACTRecords of precipitation extremes are essential for hydrological design. In urban hydrology, intensity–duration–frequency curves are typically estimated from observation records. However, conventional approaches seldom consider the areal extent of events. If they do, duration-dependent area reduction factors are used, but precipitation is measured at only a few locations. Due to the high spatial variability of precipitation, it is relatively unlikely that a gauged observation network will capture the extremes that occur during a precipitation event. Therefore, the area reduction approach cannot be regarded as the reduction of an observed maximum. To investigate precipitation extremes, spatial aspects need to be considered using different approaches. Here, we both address the conventional practice of area reduction and consider a within-area chance of increased precipitation, defined as the maximum precipitation intensity observed in a cluster within a selected domain. The results show that (1) the risk of urban flooding is routinely underestimated in current design practice, and (2) traditional calculations underestimate extremes by as much as 30–50%. We show how they can be revised sensibly. 相似文献
983.
Historical trends in Florida temperature and precipitation 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Michelle M. Irizarry‐Ortiz Jayantha Obeysekera Joseph Park Paul Trimble Jenifer Barnes Winifred Park‐Said Erik Gadzinski 《水文研究》2013,27(16):2225-2246
Because of its low topographic relief, unique hydrology, and the large interannual variability of precipitation, Florida is especially vulnerable to climate change. In this paper, we investigate a comprehensive collection of climate metrics to study historical trends in both averages and extremes of precipitation and temperature in the state. The data investigated consist of long‐term records (1892–2008) of precipitation and raw (unadjusted) temperature at 32 stations distributed throughout the state. To evaluate trends in climate metrics, we use an iterative pre‐whitening method, which aims to separate positive autocorrelation from trend present in time series. Results show a general decrease in wet season precipitation, most evident for the month of May and possibly tied to a delayed onset of the wet season. In contrast, there seems to be an increase in the number of wet days during the dry season, especially during November through January. We found that the number of dog days (above 26.7 °C) during the year and during the wet season has increased at many locations. For the post‐1950 period, a widespread decrease in the daily temperature range (DTR) is observed mainly because of increased daily minimum temperature (Tmin). Although we did not attempt to formally attribute these trends to natural versus anthropogenic causes, we find that the urban heat island effect is at least partially responsible for the increase in Tmin and its corresponding decrease in DTR at urbanized stations compared with nearby rural stations. In the future, a formal trend attribution study should be conducted for the region. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
984.
Abstract The increasing water demand is a concern affecting many regions in the Mediterranean Basin. To overcome this situation rim countries resorted during the last decades to a massive mobilization of their water resources, often resulting in excessive water exploitation. In such a context, understanding the effects of present recharge and aquifer salinization is crucial for correct water management. Understanding the present hydrogeological situation of coastal plains requires the knowledge of both their past morphologic conditions and their recent geological evolution. Within this framework, this paper presents a review of water related problems in the Mediterranean Basin. It suggests a conceptual model for groundwater resources in Mediterranean coastal plains, deriving from the present and past recharge processes. Special attention is paid to providing a better understanding of climate change impacts on water quantity and quality, and conservation of ecological diversity. Citation Re, V. & Zuppi, G. M. (2011) Influence of precipitation and deep saline groundwater on the hydrological systems of Mediterranean coastal plains: a general overview. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(6), 966–980. 相似文献
985.
Ramesh S.V. Teegavarapu 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):383-406
Abstract New mathematical programming models are proposed, developed and evaluated in this study for estimating missing precipitation data. These models use nonlinear and mixed integer nonlinear mathematical programming (MINLP) formulations with binary variables. They overcome the limitations associated with spatial interpolation methods relevant to the arbitrary selection of weighting parameters, the number of control points within a neighbourhood, and the size of the neighbourhood itself. The formulations are solved using genetic algorithms. Daily precipitation data obtained from 15 rain gauging stations in a temperate climatic region are used to test and derive conclusions about the efficacy of these methods. The developed methods are compared with some naïve approaches, multiple linear regression, nonlinear least-square optimization, kriging, and global and local trend surface and thin-plate spline models. The results suggest that the proposed new mathematical programming formulations are superior to those obtained from all the other spatial interpolation methods tested in this study. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor S. Grimaldi Citation Teegavarapu, R.S.V., 2012. Spatial interpolation using nonlinear mathematical programming models for estimation of missing precipitation records. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (3), 383–406. 相似文献
986.
Enrique Morán-Tejeda Juan Ignacio López-Moreno Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano Jorge Lorenzo-Lacruz Antonio Ceballos-Barbancho 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):591-611
Abstract Trends in high and low flows are valuable indicators of hydrological change because they highlight changes in various parts of the frequency distribution of streamflow series. This enables improved assessment of water availability in regions with high seasonal and inter-annual variability. There has been a substantial reduction in water resources in the Duero basin (Iberian Peninsula, Spain) and other areas of the Mediterranean region during the last 50 years, and this is likely to continue because of climate change. In this study, we investigated the evolution and trends in high and low flows in the Spanish part of the Duero basin, and in equivalent or closely-related precipitation indices for the period 1961–2005. The results showed a general trend of decrease in the frequency and magnitude of high flows throughout most of the basin. Moreover, the number of days with low flows significantly increased over this period. No clear relationship was evident between the evolution of high/low flows and changes in the distribution frequencies of the precipitation series. In contrast to what was expected, the number of days with heavy precipitation and the mean annual precipitation did not show significant trends across the basin, and the number of days without rainfall decreased slightly. The divergence between precipitation and runoff evolution was more accentuated in spring and summer. In the absence of trends in precipitation, it is possible that reforestation processes in the region, and increasing temperatures in recent decades, could be related to the decreasing frequency of high flows and the increasing frequency of low flows. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Grimaldi Citation Morán-Tejeda, E., López-Moreno, J.I., Vicente-Serrano, S.M., Lorenzo-Lacruz, J. and Ceballos-Barbancho, A., 2012. The contrasted evolution of high and low flows and precipitation indices in the Duero basin (Spain). Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (4), 591–611. 相似文献
987.
Abstract The trends of annual, seasonal and monthly precipitation in southern China (Guangdong Province) for the period 1956–2000 are investigated, based on the data from 186 high-quality gauging stations. Statistical tests, including Mann-Kendall rank test and wavelet analysis, are employed to determine whether the precipitation series exhibit any regular trend and periodicity. The results indicate that the annual precipitation has a slightly decreasing trend in central Guangdong and slight increasing trends in the eastern and western areas of the province. However, all the annual trends are not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. The average precipitation increases in the dry season in central Guangdong, but decreases in the wet season, meaning that the precipitation becomes more evenly distributed within the year. Furthermore, the analysis of monthly precipitation suggests that the distribution of intra-annual precipitation changes over time. The results of wavelet analysis show prominent precipitation with periods ranging from 10 to 12 years in every sub-region in Guangdong Province. Comparing with the sunspot cycle (11-year), the annual precipitation in every sub-region in Guangdong province correlates with Sunspot Number with a 3-year lag. The findings in this paper will be useful for water resources management. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor Sheng Yue Citation Dedi Liu, Shenglian Guo, Xiaohong Chen and Quanxi Shao, 2012. Analysis of trends of annual and seasonal precipitation from 1956 to 2000 in Guangdong Province, China. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (2), 358–369. 相似文献
988.
Dimitrios Myronidis Dimitrios Fotakis Konstantinos Ioannou Konstantina Sgouropoulou 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(15-16):2005-2019
ABSTRACTTen notable meteorological drought indices were compared on tracking the effect of drought on streamflow. A 730-month dataset of precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration for 88 catchments in Oregon, USA, representing pristine conditions, was used to compute the drought indices. These indices were correlated with the monthly streamflow datasets of the minimum, maximum and mean discharge, and the discharge monthly fluctuation; it was revealed that the 3-month Z-score drought index (Z3) has the best association with the four streamflow variables. The Mann-Kendall trend detection test applied to the latter index time series mainly highlighted a downward trend in the autumn and winter drought magnitude (DM) and an upward trend in the spring and summer DM (p = 0.05). Finally, the Pettitt test indicated an abrupt decline in the annual and autumn DM, which began in 1984 and 1986, respectively. 相似文献
989.
Daniel Fitzner Monika Sester 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(9):1668-1693
Accurate estimations of spatio-temporal fields at unsampled locations are important in a number of applications. Often, spatio-temporal fields are advected, which means the change in field values over time at a particular point in space stems to a large extent from motion of a more or less constant spatial field. For such dynamic fields, interpolation methods including information on the motion behaviour of the field are promising extensions of solely spatial (snapshot) and symmetric spatio-temporal methods. In this paper, the performance of different deterministic and geostatistical interpolation methods is compared for precipitation estimation from 1-minute time series of spatially distributed rain gauges. The focus is on spatio-temporal methods that include information on the motion behaviour of the rainfield, estimated from weather radar using optical flow. The different interpolation methods are introduced and evaluated using rain gauge measurements of a 15-day period and cross-validation. The results show that including information on the motion behaviour significantly improves interpolation quality in terms of RMSE. 相似文献
990.
Vitaly Salnikov Galina Turulin Svetlana Polyakov Marat Moldahmetov Lyazzat Mahmudova 《寒旱区科学》2013,5(1):0109-0113
Methods of calculating the basic hydrological characteristics of a water resource assessment, as well as the planning and management
of their long-term use are based upon the concept of stationarity of long-term flow fluctuations. However, data of researches
by hydrologists and climatologists clearly indicate that there are long-period changes in the characteristics of precipitation and river
flow. This article discusses the variations of annual precipitation and river flow in the Ishim River Basin in Kazakhstan, based
on the W, C and E classification developed by G.Y. Vangengeim who analyzed the long-term variability of anomalies by the number
of days with some form of atmospheric circulation. From this study, the largest anomaly of the macro-circulation processes
was revealed, and a comparative analysis of the number of days with various forms of atmospheric circulation and precipitation
anomalies was made. It was demonstrated that the nature of atmospheric circulation depends on the distribution of precipitation;
however, precipitation is also highly dependent on local physiographic conditions. The analysis of anomalous precipitation during
the maximum number of days of positive anomalies with various forms of atmospheric circulation was also carried out. This study
presents some results from the preliminary analysis of annual river flow linked with forms of atmospheric circulation. 相似文献