青藏高原对亚洲夏季风爆发位置及强度的影响

通过数值模拟,研究了青藏高原位于不同经度位置时,亚洲夏季风的爆发和演变情况,从动力和热力学角度分析了青藏高原大地形对亚洲夏季风爆发位置的影响。结果表明,青藏高原的“热力滑轮”作用引起:高原东南面热带陆地上空的偏南气流加强,降水增加,凝结潜热加强;高原西南面热带陆地上空出现偏北气流,降水减弱,陆面的感热加热加强。青藏高原对于亚洲夏季风的爆发地点有锚定的作用,在热带海陆分布的背景下,使亚洲夏季风首先在高原东南面的海洋东岸—陆地西岸爆发,并使亚洲季风降水重新分布。     

2003年9月19日陕西暴雨分析

利用太原地区发生的798个地质灾害个例和汛期降水资料,从地质环境背景着手,在地理信息系统(MAPGIS)支持下,对太原地质灾害危险性区划和诱发因素进行了系统研究。提出了精细的地质环境概率量化评价方法,得出了地质灾害影响因素的重要结论。建立了地质灾害预报模型,制定了预报等级标准和预报规则。经业务试验,预报结果与实况基本吻合。     

汾河水库流域人工增雨可行性研究

本文通过对汾河流域40a气象、水文资料的分析,结合现阶段人工增雨技术的研究,以增加水库蓄水量为目的,设计科学可行的人工增雨方案,并对可能的投入和预期产生的效益进行分析研究,为通过人工增雨增加水库蓄水量提供科学依据。     

Possible Impacts of the Arctic Oscillation on the Interdecadal Variation of Summer Monsoon Rainfall in East Asia

The influences of the wintertime AO (Arctic Oscillation) on the interdecadal variation of summer monsoon rainfall in East Asia were examined. An interdecadal abrupt change was found by the end of the 1970s in the variation of the AO index and the leading principal component time series of the summer rainfall in East Asia, The rainfall anomaly changed from below normal to above normal in central China, the southern part of northeastern China and the Korean peninsula around 1978. However,the opposite interdecadal variation was found in the rainfall anomaly in North China and South China.The interdecadal variation of summer rainfall is associated with the weakening of the East Asia summer monsoon circulation. It is indicated that the interdecadal variation of the AO exerts an influence on the weakening of the monsoon circulation. The recent trend in the AO toward its high-index polarity during the past two decades plays important roles in the land-sea contrast anomalies and wintertime precipitation anomaly. The mid- and high-latitude regions of the Asian continent are warming, while the low-latitude regions are cooling in winter and spring along with the AO entering its high-index polarity after the late 1970s. In the meantime, the precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau and South China is excessive, implying an increase of soil moisture. The cooling tendency of the land in the southern part of Asia will persist until summer because of the memory of soil moisture. So the warming of the Asian continent is relatively slow in summer. Moreover, the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean which are located southward and eastward of the Asian land, are warming from winter to summer. This suggests that the contrast between the land and sea is decreased in summer. The interdecadal decrease of the land-sea heat contrast finally leads to the weakening of the East Asia summer monsoon circulation.     

Tropical Precipitation Estimated by GPCP and TRMM PR Observations

In this study, tropical monthly mean precipitation estimated by the latest Global Precipitation Climatology Project （GPCP） version 2 dataset and Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Precipitation Radar （TRMM PR） are compared in temporal and spatial scales in order to comprehend tropical rainfall climatologically. Reasons for the rainfall differences derived from both datasets are discussed. Results show that GPCP and TRMM PR datasets present similar distribution patterns over the Tropics but with some differences in amplitude and location. Generally, the average difference over the ocean of about 0.5 mm d^-1 is larger than that of about 0.1 mm d^-1 over land. Results also show that GPCP tends to underestimate the monthly precipitation over the land region with sparse rain gauges in contrast to regions with a higher density of rain gauge stations. A Probability Distribution Function （PDF） analysis indicates that the GPCP rain rate at its maximum PDF is generally consistent with the TRMM PR rain rate as the latter is less than 8 mm d^-1. When the TRMM PR rain rate is greater than 8 mm d^-1, the GPCP rain rate at its maximum PDF is less by at least 1 mm d^-1 compared to TRMM PR estimates. Results also show an absolute bias of less than 1 mm d^-1 between the two datasets when the rain rate is less than 10 mm d^-1. A large relative bias of the two datasets occurs at weak and heavy rain rates.     

不同降水天气系统自然降水特征及火箭人工增雨潜力分析

统计分析了1981~2000年20年中15种降水天气系统影响下河北地区自然降水特征,并对火箭人工增雨的潜力进行了初步分析。统计分析表明:西来槽类、高空低涡类、冷锋、切变线和副高后部等天气系统是影响河北地区的主要降水系统,其降雨量和降雨日数占到了90%以上;不同的天气系统在不同季节对降水的贡献有所不同,其中西来槽类的降雨量和降雨日数均居首位,开展人工增雨催化作业机会最多;夏季降水系统最强,云水资源最为丰富,人工增雨潜力很大,是开展火箭人工增雨催化作业的最佳季节,春秋两季增雨潜力明显比夏季小,冬季最小;倒槽、副高后部、台风低压、高空低涡类和气旋类等系统最强,日降雨量和单位面积降雨量明显比其它系统大,尤其对蓄水型火箭增雨作业十分有利。     

闽东干旱概况及夏季人工增雨作业天气形势分析

对闽东干旱的成因和干旱的环流形势进行了探讨,着重分析了夏旱期间人工增雨作业的天气形势以及不同形势、不同云型下的降水情况。结果表明:闽东干旱的形成与大型环流形势、地理因素、土壤植被等有关,平均而言,沿海干旱明显多于内陆山区;夏季发生干旱的机率最大而且强度级别高,西太平洋副热带高压是致旱的主要天气系统;在夏季,台风型(T)、弱流场型(R)是进行人工增雨作业的优势天气型,Cb、Cu、Sc云是开展人工增雨作业比较适合的作业云。这些结果为夏旱期间开展人工增雨作业提供了理论依据。     

Impacts of Previous Winter Kuroshio SSTA on Summer Rainfall in China

1. IntroductionAs well known, Kuroshio is a famous and strongwest boundary current in the North Pacific. It trans-fers enormous energy from the low latitudes to themid-high latitudes and releases huge heat flux to theatmosphere above (Hsiung, 1985). The variation ofKuroshio exerts great influence on weather and cli-mate in East Asian.During 1950-60s, Lü (1950, 1964) found that thewestern North Pacific SSTA had a close relation withsummer rainfall in China. In the 1970s, evidencesshowed…     

Runoff Simulation of Three Gorges Area in the Upper Yangtze River during 1998 Flood Season

The contribution of areal precipitation of the catchment from Cuntan to Yichang (Three Gorges area) to eight flood peaks of the Upper Yangtze River (the upper reaches of the Yangtze River) is diagnosed for 1998 flood season. A rainfall-runoff model is employed to simulate runoffs of-this catchment. Comparison of observed and simulated runoffs shows that the rainfall-runoff model has a good capability to simulate the runoff over a large-scale river and the results describe the eight flood peaks very well. Forecast results are closely associated with the sensitivity of the model to rainfall and the calibration processes. Other reasons leading to simulation errors are further discussed.     

Critical rainfall statistics for predicting watershed flood responses: rethinking the design storm concept

Recent advances have been made to modernize estimates of probable precipitation scenarios; however, researchers and engineers often continue to assume that rainfall events can be described by a small set of event statistics, typically average intensity and event duration. Given the easy availability of precipitation data and advances in desk‐top computational tools, we suggest that it is time to rethink the ‘design storm’ concept. Design storms should include more holistic characteristics of flood‐inducing rain events, which, in addition to describing specific hydrologic responses, may also be watershed or regionally specific. We present a sensitivity analysis of nine precipitation event statistics from observed precipitation events within a 60‐year record for Tompkins County, NY, USA. We perform a two‐sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test to objectively identify precipitation event statistics of importance for two related hydrologic responses: (1) peak outflow from the Six Mile Creek watershed and (2) peak depth within the reservoir behind the Six Mile Creek Dam. We identify the total precipitation depth, peak hourly intensity, average intensity, event duration, interevent duration, and several statistics defining the temporal distribution of precipitation events to be important rainfall statistics to consider for predicting the watershed flood responses. We found that the two hydrologic responses had different sets of statistically significant parameters. We demonstrate through a stochastic precipitation generation analysis the effects of starting from a constrained parameter set (intensity and duration) when predicting hydrologic responses as opposed to utilizing an expanded suite of rainfall statistics. In particular, we note that the reduced precipitation parameter set may underestimate the probability of high stream flows and therefore underestimate flood hazard. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.