The Roles of Spatial Locations and Patterns of Initial Errors in the Uncertainties of Tropical Cyclone Forecasts

In this study,a series of sensitivity experiments were performed for two tropical cyclones (TCs),TC Longwang (2005) and TC Sinlaku (2008),to explore the roles of locations and patterns of initial errors in uncertainties of TC forecasts.Specifically,three types of initial errors were generated and three types of sensitive areas were determined using conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP),first singular vector (FSV),and composite singular vector (CSV) methods.Additionally,random initial errors in randomly selected areas were considered.Based on these four types of initial errors and areas,we designed and performed 16 experiments to investigate the impacts of locations and patterns of initial errors on the nonlinear developments of the errors,and to determine which type of initial errors and areas has the greatest impact on TC forecasts.Overall,results from the experiments indicate the following:(1) The impact of random errors introduced into the sensitive areas was greater than that of errors themselves fixed in the randomly selected areas.From the perspective of statistical analysis,and by comparison,the impact of random errors introduced into the CNOP target area was greatest.(2) The initial errors with CNOP,CSV,or FSV patterns were likely to grow faster than random errors.(3) The initial errors with CNOP patterns in the CNOP target areas had the greatest impacts on the final verification forecasts.     

监测地理国情对测绘发展的引领与拓新

开展地理国情监测,国家测绘地理信息局已经有了很好的成果资料积累、技术基础和人才梯队,但是要形成一个完整的地理国情监测体系还需要科技创新和实践探索。目前主要任务是：充分利用已取得的基础测绘成果及其与地理国情监测相关方面探索出的成功经验,准确把握地理国情监测的重点和难点,创新思维,勇于探索,破解难题,为全面开展地理国情监测工作铺平道路。     

Performance of various similarity functions for nondimensional wind and temperature profiles in the surface layer in stable conditions

The linear functions for non-dimensional wind and temperature profiles are commonly used to describe the surface layer fluxes in atmospheric models. However, their applicability is limited to smaller values of the stability parameter z/L (where z is the height above ground and L is the Obukhov length) i.e. z/L < 1.0. These linear functions have been modified (Webb 1970, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 96, 67–90; Clarke 1970, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 96, 91–114; Hicks 1976, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 102, 535–551; Beljaars and Holtslag 1991, J. Appl. Meteorol. 30, 327–341; Cheng and Brutsaert 2005, Boundary-Layer Meteorol. 114, 519–538) over the years for calculating fluxes when z/L > 1.0 under strongly stable conditions. In view of this, the objective of the present study is to analyze the performance of these similarity functions to compute surface fluxes in stable conditions.The meteorological observations from the Cooperative Atmosphere-Surface Exchange Study (CASES-99) experiment are utilized for computing the surface fluxes in stable conditions. The computed fluxes are found to be reasonably close to those observed. The ratio of observed to computed fluxes reveals that the computed fluxes are close to the observations for all the similarity functions for z/L < 1.0 whereas the computed values show relatively a large scatter from observations for z/L > 1.0. The computed values of u and heat flux do not show significant differences from those observed at 99% confidence limit. The performance of all the similarity functions considered here is found to be comparable to each other in strongly stable conditions.     

华北汛期水汽条件的年代际特征分析

利用NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料,使用合成分析等方法,分析了华北汛期水汽条件的年代际变化特征,结果表明：大气对华北汛期的水汽输送以及华北区域的水汽收支有明显的年代际变化。以1978年为界,先前以异常西南风对华北进行水汽输送的改变为以后的异常东北风的水汽输送,先前以异常东风水汽输送的改变为以后的异常偏西风水汽输送,先前以异常偏西风水汽输送的改变为以后的异常偏东风水汽输送。对于华北区域而言,先前由南边界和西边界的异常水汽输送,改变为以后的由北边界和东边界异常水汽输送,华北地区水汽由以前的异常水汽辐合和盈余,改变为以后的异常水汽辐散和亏损。     

Intercomparison and Evaluation of MM5 and Meso-NH mesoscale models in the stable boundary layer

Atmospheric numerical models depend critically on realistic treatment of the lower boundary conditions. In strongly thermally-stratified conditions, turbulence may be very weak and the models may find it difficult to produce a good forecast near the surface. Under clear skies and for weak synoptic winds the determining factors are the turbulent kinetic energy and surface-layer parameterizations, which can be very different between models. Here, two state-of-the-art mesoscale models (MM5 and Meso-NH) are operated under exactly the same conditions for two different nights over the Duero basin in the Iberian Peninsula: one night with a well-defined synoptic wind and a second with practically no horizontal pressure gradient. The models are inter-compared and checked against available information, and their performances are evaluated.     

北方草地生态气象综合监测预测技术及其应

近几十年来中国90%以上的草地出现退化现象,特别是内蒙古、宁夏、甘肃、新疆、青海、西藏等地区,草地退化严重,国家急需掌握气象条件对草地植被生长的影响,了解草地生产力、牲畜承载力以及生态质量状况.为此,在实时获取北方草地气温、降水量、日照时数等气象要素和气象卫星植被指数以及产草量观测资料的基础上,应用模糊数学、集合运算、统计分析等多种方法和"3S"手段,建立了北方草地植被生长气象条件优劣评价、产草量和载畜量预测、草地生态质量监测等模型.2005年以来,利用这些模型逐年评价了气象条件对草地植被生长的优劣影响、预测产草量和载畜量、监测草地生态质量优劣,获得了良好的服务效益.北方草地2007年生态气象监测预测结果表明:所建模型综合了多种资料和技术优势,结果符合实际;形成的综合监测预测技术可为国家保护和恢复草地生态环境提供科学依据.     

广州地区雷暴过程云-地闪特征及其环境条件

应用雷电定位系统和高空观测资料并结合雷达回波资料, 对广州地区雷暴过程云-地闪特征进行分析, 并就有、无云-地闪出现的两组不同对流天气过程的环境条件进行了比较研究。结果表明:广州地区的雷暴过程以负的云-地闪为主, 负云-地闪所占比例在90%以上。云-地闪发生频率与雷暴系统强度演变有直接联系, 对于同一系统来说, 随着系统回波强度的增强, 云-地闪发生的频率也增高。但不同系统中, 云-地闪发生频率有很大不同, 回波强(弱)的对流系统并不意味着云-地闪发生的频率就高(低)。有云-地闪记录的对流天气过程具有更大的垂直切变、更高的相对风暴螺旋度以及更多的对流抑制能量, 云-地闪现象更易于出现在更加有组织和更强的对流系统中。研究还发现广州及周边城市区域对雷暴系统回波强度及云-地闪现象可能有影响, 两个典型个例分析表明, 雷暴系统移经城市区域时回波强度减弱, 云-地闪发生频率减小, 雷暴移过城市区域后, 强度可重新加强, 云-地闪发生频率增大。     

Changeable hydrothermal media as potential cradle of life on a planet

According to the elaborated systemic concept, a prebiotic microsystem has a chance to be transformed into primary living unit (probiont) only under nonequilibrium oscillating conditions. This transition proceeds through three successive kinds of transformations. First, a prebiotic microsystem must acquire the specific critical properties being at the unstable state of the bifurcate transition. Then it should be relatively stabilized due to balanced oscillations between the initial and the forward states (there appears the paradoxical state of ‘stabilized instability’). The decisive transformation to the living state is connected with the inversion of the ratio of ‘free energy to entropy contribution’ when the free energy input in the microsystem becomes higher than the entropy input. Changeable nonequilibrium conditions are most typical to hydrothermal systems in comparison with other aqueous media of the Earth. In this context the hydrothermal medium seems very suitable to be considered as a potential cradle of life on a planet. To characterize a scale of the thermodynamic and physico-chemical fluctuations some hydrothermal systems in Kamchatka peninsula were explored. The period of the pressure microoscillations in Mutnovsky and Pauzhetsky hydrothermal systems range from 10 to 30 min, and the amplitude is 0.2-0.7 bar. From time to time the amplitude of the fluctuations significantly rises due to spontaneous increase of activity of the nearest volcanoes. Similar results were obtained during the exploration of thermodynamic and chemical fluctuations in Mura hydrothermal field in Slovenia: the period of the water pressure oscillations is 60-70 min, and the average amplitude about 0.5 bar. Temperature and some chemical parameters oscillate in this field with the same period. These data can be used to conduct advanced laboratory experiments on prebiotic organic synthesis under nonequilibrium oscillating conditions. Some universal aspects of this concept may allow us to better understand the origin-of-life process in the Universe.     

鄂尔多斯盆地长9油层组石油运聚规律研究

鄂尔多斯盆地长9油层组是一个新发现的含油层。迄今为止,有关长9油层组石油运聚成藏机理尚不清楚,特别是对石油运聚规律缺乏认识。该问题的解决会进一步完善鄂尔多斯盆地中生界延长组石油成藏理论;同时,对长9油层组石油勘探开发具有重要的指导作用。我们对长9油层组石油来源、油气输导体系、油气运移路径和油气运移动力等油气运聚条件特征及其不同地区差异进行了研究,结果表明,长9油层组原油主要来自长7烃源岩,只有在志丹局部地区来自长7和长9烃源岩;长9油层组石油的纵向运移路径是由上向下运移;孔隙型输导体和断层、构造裂隙输导体是长9油层组石油运移的主要输导体;盆地长7油层组普遍存在高过剩压力带,长7与长9油层组之间存在较大的流体压力差,因此长7油层组生成的油气在高过剩压力驱动下可以向下运移,进入储层物性相对好的长9砂体聚集成藏。同时,建立了3种长9油层组油气运聚模式,讨论了长9油层组油气运聚机理     

The ecological-geological system,its types and position in the structure of an ecosystem

An ecologic-geological system presents a certain volume of the lithosphere with biota, including humans and the social media functioning in it and on its surface. This system is considered as the study subject of ecological geology. In all, four types of ecological-geological systems have been distinguished and characterized: a natural real system, natural ideal system, natural-technical ideal system, and natural-technical real system. The position of an ecological-geological system in the structure of an ecosystem is shown.