Reliability assessment of granular filters in embankment dams

Empirical criteria have been used successfully to design filters of most embankment large dam projects throughout the world. However, these empirical rules are only applicable to a particular range of soils tested in laboratory and do not take into account the variability of the base material and filter particle sizes. In addition, it is widely accepted that the safety of fill dams is mainly dependent on the reliability of their filter performance. The work herein presented consists in a new general method for assessing the probability of fulfilling any empirical filter design criteria accounting for base and filter heterogeneity by means of first‐order reliability methods (FORM), so that reliability indexes and probabilities of fulfilling any particular criteria are obtained. This method will allow engineers to estimate the safety of existing filters in terms of probability of fulfilling their design criteria and might also be used as a decision tool on sampling needs and material size tolerances during construction. In addition, sensitivity analysis makes possible to analyse how reliabilities are influenced by different sources of input data. Finally, in case of a portfolio risk assessment, this method will allow engineers to compare the safety of several existing dams in order to prioritize safety investments and it is expected to be a very useful tool to evaluate probabilities of failure due to internal erosion. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evidence for a mid‐Pleistocene shift of ice‐drift pattern in the Nordic seas

Sediment proxy records from a continuous, 1.5 million year long deep‐sea sediment core from a site in the western Norwegian Sea were used to obtain new insights into the nature of palaeoceanographic change in the northern North Atlantic (Nordic seas) during the climatic shift of the Mid‐Pleistocene Revolution (MPR). Red‐green sediment colour and magnetic susceptibility records both reveal significant differences in their mean values when comparing the intervals older than 700 000 yr (700 ka) with those from the past 500 kyr. The timing and duration of these changes indicates that the MPR in the Nordic seas is characterised by a gradual transition lasting about 200 kyr. Together with further sedimentological evidence this suggests that the mid‐Pleistocene climate shift was accompanied by a general change in ice‐drift pattern. It is further proposed that prior to the onset of the major late Pleistocene glaciations in the Northern Hemisphere a significant proportion of the ice in the eastern Nordic seas originated from a southern provenance, whereas later it dominantly came from the surrounding landmasses. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

FARMLAND AND URBAN AREA DYNAMICS MONITORING INCHINA USING REMOTE SENSING AND SPATIALSTATISTICS METHODOLOGY

1 INTRODUCTIONGlobal change research involves much geo-objectsand geo-process, such as climate and environmentalchange, substance and energy cycling, land-use/land-cover change (LUCC), interactivity between human and nature, etc.. So it need cooperation frommany research communities including international research programs groups such as IGBP (InternationalGeosphere-Biosphere Programme IPCC (Intergovemmental Panel on Climate Change), IHDP (InternationalHuman Dimension Program o…     

Numerical modelling of permafrost in bedrock in northern Fennoscandia during the Holocene

The occurrence of permafrost in bedrock in northern Fennoscandia and its dependence on past and presently ongoing climatic variations was investigated with one- (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) numerical models by solving the transient heat conduction equation with latent heat effects included. The study area is characterized by discontinuous permafrost occurrences such as palsa mires and local mountain permafrost. The ground temperature changes during the Holocene were constructed using climatic proxy data. This variation was used as a forcing function at the ground surface in the calculations. Several versions of the present ground temperature were applied, resulting in different subsurface freezing–thawing conditions in the past depending on the assumed porosity and geothermal conditions.Our results suggest that in high altitude areas with a cold climate (present mean annual ground temperature between 0°C and −3°C), there may have been considerable variations in permafrost thickness (ranging from 0 to 150 m), as well as periods of no permafrost at all. The higher is the porosity of bedrock filled with ice, the stronger is the retarding effect of permafrost against climatic variations.Two-dimensional models including topographic effects with altitude-dependent ground temperatures and slope orientation and inclination dependent solar radiation were applied to a case of mountain permafrost in Ylläs, western Finnish Lapland, where bedrock permafrost is known to occur in boreholes to a depth of about 60 m. Modelling suggests complicated changes in permafrost thickness with time as well as contrasting situations on southern and northern slopes of the mountain.Extrapolating the climatic warming of the last 200 years to the end of the next century when the anticipated increase in the annual average air temperature is expected to be about 2 K indicates that the permafrost occurrences in bedrock in northern Fennoscandia would be thawing rapidly in low-porosity formations. However, already a porosity of 5% filled with ice would retard the thawing considerably.     

Late Holocene great earthquakes and relative sea‐level change at Kenai,southern Alaska

Kenai, located on the west coast of the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, subsided during the great earthquake of AD 1964. Regional land subsidence is recorded within the estuarine stratigraphy as peat overlain by tidal silt and clay. Reconstructions using quantitative diatom transfer functions estimate co‐seismic subsidence (relative sea‐level rise) between 0.28±0.28 m and 0.70±0.28 m followed by rapid post‐seismic recovery. Stratigraphy records an earlier co‐seismic event as a second peat‐silt couplet, dated to ～1500–1400 cal. yr BP with 1.14±0.28 m subsidence. Two decimetre‐scale relative sea‐level rises are more likely the result of glacio‐isostatic responses to late Holocene and Little Ice Age glacier expansions rather than to co‐seismic subsidence during great earthquakes. Comparison with other sites around Cook Inlet, at Girdwood and Ocean View, helps in constructing regional patterns of land‐level change associated with three great earthquakes, AD 1964, ～950–850 cal. yr BP and ～1500–1400 cal. yr BP. Each earthquake has a different spatial pattern of co‐seismic subsidence which indicates that assessment of seismic hazard in southern Alaska requires an understanding of multiple great earthquakes, not only the most recent. All three earthquakes show a pre‐seismic phase of gradual land subsidence that marked the end of relative land uplift caused by inter‐seismic strain accumulation. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

CHARACTERIZATION OF LACTATE DEHYDROGENASE ISOZYME PATTERN AND MORPHOLOGY OF THREE MARINE FISH CELL LINES

Three continuous marine fish cell lines of FG (i. e., Hounder Gill) from flounder (Paralichthys olivaceus) gill, SPH (i. e. , Sea Perch Heart) from sea perch (Lateolabrax japonicus) heart and RSBF (i.e., Red Sea Bream Fin) from red sea bream (Pagrosomus major) fin, were characterized by lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) isozyme and morphological analysis. The LDH isozyme patterns of these three cell lines and their corresponding tissues of origin were investigated and compared. The results showed: (1) No difference was found in the LDH isozyme patterns of FG and flounder gill tissue. However, the LDH isozyme patterns of SPH and RSBF were significantly different from their corresponding tissues of origin; (2) LDH isozyme patterns of FG, SPH and RSBF were markedly different from each other and could serve as genetic markers for species identification and detection of cross contamination. Morphological change analysis of these three cell lines in comparison to their original tissues indicated that FG cells still appeared epithelioid without morphological transformation. However, morphological changes were found in SPH and RSBF compared to their original tissues. Therefore, the cellular morphology was still plastic in the relatively stable culture conditions, and it was possible that change of LDH patterns wasrelated to morphological changes of fish cells in vitro.     

IMPACTS OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE ON SALT WATER INTRUSION IN THE CHANGJIANG RIVER ESTUARY

Sea level rise could increase the salinity of an estuary by altering the balance between fresh water and salt water. The implications of sea level rise for increasing salinity have been examined in the Changjiang (Yangtze) River estuary. By correlative analysis of chlorinity, discharge and tidal level and calculation of two-dimensional chlorinity, distribution of the Changjiang River estuary, the changes of the intensity and lasting hours of salt water intrusion at Wusong Station and the changes of chlorinity distribution in the South Branch of the Changjiang River estuary have been estimated when future sea level rises 50-100 cm. The intensity of salt water intrusion in the future will be far more serious than current trend.     

Rapid Lateglacial tree population dynamics and ecosystem changes in the eastern Baltic region

A growing body of evidence implies that the concept of 'treeless tundra' in eastern and northern Europe fails to explain the rapidity of Lateglacial and postglacial tree population dynamics of the region, yet the knowledge of the geographic locations and shifting of tree populations is fragmentary. Pollen, stomata and plant macrofossil stratigraphies from Lake Kurjanovas in the poorly studied eastern Baltic region provide improved knowledge of ranges of north‐eastern European trees during the Lateglacial and subsequent plant population responses to the abrupt climatic changes of the Lateglacial/Holocene transition. The results prove the Lateglacial presence of tree populations (Betula, Pinus and Picea) in the eastern Baltic region. Particularly relevant is the stomatal and plant macrofossil evidence showing the local presence of reproductive Picea populations during the Younger Dryas stadial at 12 900–11 700 cal. a BP, occurring along with Dryas octopetala and arctic herbs, indicating semi‐open vegetation. The spread of Pinus–Betula forest at ca. 14 400 cal. a BP, the rise of Picea at ca. 12 800 cal. a BP and the re‐establishment of Pinus–Betula forest at ca. 11 700 cal. a BP within a span of centuries further suggest strikingly rapid, climate‐driven ecosystem changes rather than gradual plant succession on a newly deglaciated land. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

River sediments,great floods and centennial‐scale Holocene climate change

A new analysis of all 346 published ¹⁴C dated Holocene alluvial units in Britain offers a unique insight into the regional impacts of global change and shows how surprisingly sensitive British rivers have been to relatively modest but repeated changes in climate. Fourteen major but probably brief periods of flooding are identified bracketed within the periods 400–1070, 1940–3940, 7520–8100 and at ca. 10 420 cal. yr BP. There is a strong correspondence between climatic deteriorations inferred from mire wet shifts and major periods of flooding, especially at ca. 8000 cal. yr BP and since ca. 4000 cal. yr BP. The unusually long and complete British record also demonstrates that alterations in land cover have resulted in a step change in river basin sensitivity to variations in climate. This has very important implications for assessing and mitigating the impact of increasing severe flooding. In small and medium‐sized river basins land use is likely to play a key role in either moderating or amplifying the climatic signal. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Long-chain alkenones and U37′ variability along a south–north transect in the Western Pacific Ocean

In this paper, we present 50 surface water samples collected during the IMAGES III cruise (June–July 1997) along a transect from New Zealand to the China Sea (42°S–178°E, 21°N–120°E) covering a temperature range from 13.3 to 30.4 °C. A very worthwhile aspect of this study is a coupling of both biomarker (alkenone) and coccolithophorid counting. We show that the U₃₇^k′–temperature relationship is very similar to the Prahl et al. [Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 52 (1988) 2203] culture calibration and to the global core top calibration of Müller et al. [Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 62 (1998) 1757]. However, in the warmest surface waters of the Western Pacific ocean (>26.4 °C) where Gephyrocapsa oceanica is likely the most widespread species, the associated U₃₇^k′ has a constant value of 1.0. The consequence is that above this temperature threshold, U₃₇^k′ cannot be used as an accurate paleothermometer.