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城市行政中心迁移的经济效应评估与作用机制分析——以青岛市为例

城市行政中心迁移是地方政府进行空间治理的重要手段,对城市经济发展具有深远的影响。论文以青岛市为案例,选取1988—2010年城市面板数据,采用合成控制法探究城市行政中心迁移的经济效应并分析背后的作用机制。结果表明：(1)城市行政中心迁移可以提高以GDP对数值为衡量单位的城市经济效益,但经济增长效应具有滞后性;(2)青岛城市行政中心迁移后,城市经济在短期内仍有惯性表现,城市行政中心迁移的经济增长效应在政策实施的第6年开始显现,整个城市的经济发展阶段可分为投资建设、缓慢增长、快速增长和趋于稳定4个阶段;(3)青岛城市行政中心迁移所带来的经济增长效应可以从政府引导效应、投资驱动效应和要素驱动效应3个方面去理解。研究不仅证明了城市行政中心迁移对城市经济的促进效应,也为地方政府评估行政中心迁移方案提供了重要参考。     

Lateglacial and Holocene relative sea‐level changes and first evidence for the Storegga tsunami in Sutherland,Scotland

We reconstruct one of the longest relative sea‐level (RSL) records in north‐west Europe from the north coast of mainland Scotland, using data collected from three sites in Loch Eriboll (Sutherland) that we combine with other studies from the region. Following deglaciation, RSL fell from a Lateglacial highstand of +6?8 m OD (Ordnance Datum = ca. mean sea level) at ca. 15 k cal a BP to below present, then rose to an early Holocene highstand and remained at ca. +1 m OD between ca. 7 and 3 k cal a BP, before falling to present. We find no evidence for significant differential Holocene glacio‐isostatic adjustment between sites on the north‐west (Lochinver, Loch Laxford), north (Loch Eriboll) and north‐east (Wick) coast of mainland Scotland. This suggests that the region was rapidly deglaciated and there was little difference in ice loads across the region. From one site at the head of Loch Eriboll we report the most westerly sedimentary evidence for the early Holocene Storegga tsunami on the Scottish mainland. The presence of the Storegga tsunami in Loch Eriboll is predicted by a tsunami wave model, which suggests that the tsunami impacted the entire north coast of Scotland and probably also the Atlantic coastline of north‐west Scotland.

     

龙门山地震断裂带地应力分布及其对井壁稳定的 影响———以WFSD-2 井为例

[摘 要]龙门山地震断裂带是我国最为强烈的地震带之一,地层破碎、地应力异常,钻孔缩径造成孔内事故频发,井壁稳定问题十分突出。本文介绍了汶川地震断裂带科学钻探施工中所发生的孔内事故情况,并通过对地层应力数据的统计分析,得出龙门山地震断裂带最大水平应力和最小水平应力随深度变化的回归曲线,最大水平应力梯度为4. 52MPa/100 m,最小水平应力梯度为2. 51 MPa/100 m。以WFSD-2 井为例,分析了龙门山地震断裂带地层应力、尤其是断层泥应力对井壁稳定的影响;针对膨胀性地层,介绍了一种通过泥浆密度微调现场测定地层坍塌压力和破裂压力的简易方法。     

聚合物调剖剂在吉林新立裂缝性油藏中的应用

目的：本文利用核磁共振技术系统地研究了聚合物调剖剂在吉林新立裂缝性油田中的应用。方法：利用多层平面物理模拟技术测试了不同聚合物对调整吉林新立油田中的作用和机理，实验集中测试了各阶段的油水饱和度及分布状况；结果：最后，研究不同的调剖剂注入量下剩余油的分布规律，提出调剖措施实施意见。结论：为裂缝性砂岩低渗透油田的合理、高效开发提供有力的支持。     

农用地地类设定存在问题分析与优化路径

现代农业发展所引发传统农业的多元化转变,在丰富农产品供应数量与质量、提高人民生活水平的同时,也造成国民经济行业的类型增加、结构调整等变化。这一变化也进一步改变了“大农业”模式下的农用地类型划分的合理性及其与国民经济行业、用地性质等之间的关系界定问题。本文通过梳理农业产业范围的变化情况及其对农用地的影响、土壤耕作层对农业地类划分的依据性、传统农用地与当前国民经济行业分类之间差异等问题,探索了造成农用地地类界定不断变化的历史因素和产业环境。结合这些研究结果,本研究有针对性地提出了意见建议,以期农业用地划分更加合理化。     

限制开发区政策调整对农民增产增收的影响研究

乡村振兴依托于特定的发展环境,政策调整是影响乡村发展的重要外部冲击。经国务院批准,洞庭湖生态经济区规划于2014年正式实施,旨在实现保障长江流域水安全和生态安全、巩固提升湖区粮食主产区地位等目标。本文将其视作准自然实验,运用2007—2017年湖南省县域面板数据,利用双重差分法从农民增收和粮食增产的视角研究规划实施的影响效应。结果表明：① 规划实施通过产生结构效应、配置效应与技术效应,从而达到增收增产效果,洞庭湖生态经济区规划实施后的粮食产量比实施前提高了3.82%,农民收入增加了10.2%,规划实施的效果不存在时滞效应,将有利于乡村振兴战略中产业兴旺、生活富裕等目标的实现。② 县的农民增产增收效果显著,但县级市的效果欠佳。③ 比较其他粮食作物,水稻增产效果较为明显。④ 下一步应在建设高标准基本农田、加大农业补贴和生态补偿、培育乡村特色产业等方面进一步优化和完善相关政策,以促进限制开发区乡村振兴目标的实现。     

辽河三角洲湿地景观的水文调节与防洪功能

以辽河三角洲为对象论述了湿地景观的水文功能,重点研究湿地蓄水容量与苇田蒸发散、湿地水更新率、稻田水量平衡等湿地的水文调节功能及人类活动的影响;探讨了湿地水文调节功能的价值估算,三角洲地下含水层的调洪功能;并根据辽河三角洲湿地的景观生态特征和在防洪中的功能,将湿地景观划分出5个功能区,为制定合理的景观规划,为促进三角洲地区的可持续发展服务。     

Effect of tropical cyclone intensity and instability on the evolution of spiral bands

The evolution of spiral-band-like structures triggered by asymmetric heating in three tropical-cyclone-like vortices of different intensities is examined using the Three-Dimensional Vortex Perturbation Analyzer and Simulator （3DVPAS） model. To simulate the spiral bands, asymmetric thermal perturbations are imposed on the radius of maximum wind （RMW） of vortices, which can be considered as the location near the eyewall of real tropical cyclones （TCs）. All the three vortices experience a hydrostatic adjustment after the introduction of thermal asymmetries. It takes more time for weaker and stable vortices to finish such a process. The spiral-band-like structures, especially those distant from the vortex centers, form and evolve accompanying this process. In the quasi-balance state, the spiral bands are gradually concentrated to the inner core, the wave behavior of which resembles the features of classic vortex Rossby （VR） waves. The unstable vortices regain nonhydrostatic features after the quasi-balance stage. The spiral bands further from the vortex center, similar to distant spiral bands in real TCs, form and maintain more easily in the moderate basic-state vortex, satisfying the conditions of barotropic instability. The widest radial extent and longest-lived distant bands always exist in weak and stable vortices. This study represents an attempt to determine the role of TC intensity and stability in the formation and evolution of spiral bands via hydrostatic balance adjustment, and provides some valuable insights into the formation of distant spiral rainbands.     

作物布局,耕作制度,栽培技术与棉铃虫调控

分析了８０年代以来作物布局、耕作制度、栽培技术的变化,指出这些变化与棉铃虫为害有着密切的关系,从这一角度提出了调控棉铃虫的措施。