基于多灾种自然灾害风险的长白山地区生态安全综合评价

以长白山地区为研究区,以DEM数据、气象站实测数据、遥感影像数据、专题地图数据和统计数据作为数据源,结合长白山地区气象灾害、火山灾害和地质灾害风险水平的分布数据,基于PSR模型建立了基于多灾种自然灾害风险的生态安全评价指标体系。采用极差法、层次分析法、综合指数法进行了基于多灾种自然灾害风险水平的长白山地区生态安全综合评价。结果表明：长白山地区基于多灾种自然灾害风险的生态安全等级呈现出明显的空间差异性,整体上呈现出由中部向东西两端和南北两端逐渐递减的趋势。各等级面积大小排序为：临界安全等级>较安全等级>安全等级>较不安全等级>不安全等级。各县市基于多灾种自然灾害风险的生态安全水平大小排序为：长白县>安图县>抚松县>和龙市>临江市,同时各县市的等级构成也有所差异。整体上看,长白山地区基于多灾种自然灾害风险的生态安全水平以临界安全等级为主,生态环境质量受到了一定程度的破坏,驱动力因素主要是自然灾害和人为因素。     

山岳型旅游地水资源系统安全评价——以黄山风景区为例

以黄山风景区为案例地,基于1998-2012 年15 年间的水资源与旅游发展相关数据,运用集对分析法,从扰动性和应对能力两个层面建立评价指标体系,对其年际及月际水资源系统安全态势进行评价。结果表明：① 15 年间,黄山风景区年际水资源系统安全性综合指数总体处于中等水平,并呈现逐年上升趋势;② 月际水资源系统安全性平均指数虽总体也处于中等水平,但存在月际差异,大体呈“双峰双谷”型;③ 年际系统安全性与扰动性指数、应对能力指数呈现出显著的正相关关系。月际系统安全性则与扰动性指数、应对能力指数呈现出负相关关系。应对能力强弱对年际水资源安全性具有重要作用,对月际系统安全性调节具有局限性。④ 水资源潜力、旅游发展、用水效率和纳污能力共同构成了系统安全的扰动要素,资金收入与投入、技术与道德措施形成了系统的应对能力,但各因子作用强度、性质不同。     

鄂尔多斯土地利用生态安全格局优化及方案评价

根据不同情景选择符合区域生态环境与社会经济特点的模型方法,已经成为区域土地利用生态安全格局构建的关键。本文以位于中国北方农牧交错带的鄂尔多斯市为研究区,基于自然地理数据、社会经济统计数据、土地利用/覆被数据,将最小累积阻力模型（MCR）引入土地利用生态安全格局的构建过程,并通过景观格局指数分析了基于MCR模型构建的安全格局与基于土地生态适宜性和多目标优化的安全格局的适用条件。结果显示：前者适宜于维持生态安全的情景,有利于降低土地系统中人类活动的生态风险;后者则适宜于维持生态适宜性的情景,有利于降低土地系统中自然因素的生态风险。研究结果对鄂尔多斯市土地资源的可持续利用具有重要的指导意义。     

稳态与湍流特征测试对通量数据质量的评价

应用CO2通量、感热和潜热通量稳态测试及垂直速度积分测试相结合的湍流数据质量评价方法对锡林浩特国家气候观象台2009年全年的湍流通量观测数据进行了质量评价。结果表明,锡林浩特通量观测数据质量总体较好;80％以上数据通过质量评价为较好数据;质量评价较好的数据分布呈白天大于夜间、夏季大于冬季的特点。经过对比分析,前期数据处理能剔除大部分质量不好的数据,但应用稳态测试与湍流积分测试筛选后,数据质量仍有明显提高,能量闭合率较前期数据分析前提高2％以上。     

Adaptive state estimation of groundwater contaminant boundary input flux in a 2-dimensional aquifer

In many circumstances involving heat and mass transfer issues,it is considered impractical to measure the input flux and the resulting state distribution in the domain.Therefore,the need to develop techniques to provide solutions for such problems and estimate the inverse mass flux becomes imperative.Adaptive state estimator(ASE)is increasingly becoming a popular inverse estimation technique which resolves inverse problems by incorporating the semi-Markovian concept into a Bayesian estimation technique,thereby developing an inverse input and state estimator consisting of a bank of parallel adaptively weighted Kalman filters.The ASE is particularly designed for a system that encompasses independent unknowns and/or random switching of input and measurement biases.The present study describes the scheme to estimate the groundwater input contaminant flux and its transient distribution in a conjectural two-dimensional aquifer by means of ASE,which in particular is because of its unique ability to efficiently handle the process noise giving an estimation of keeping the relative error range within 10%in 2-dimensional problems.Numerical simulation results show that the proposed estimator presents decent estimation performance for both smoothly and abruptly varying input flux scenarios.Results also show that ASE enjoys a better estimation performance than its competitor,Recursive Least Square Estimator(RLSE)due to its larger error tolerance in greater process noise regimes.ASE's inherent deficiency of being slower than the RLSE,resulting from the complexity of algorithm,was also noticed.The chosen input scenarios are tested to calculate the effect of input area and both estimators show improved results with an increase in input flux area especially as sensors are moved closer to the assumed input location.     

Groundwater Sustainability in Arid and Semi-arid Environments: A Review2

Groundwater is an important part of the global hydrological cycle. Sustainable utilization of groundwater is related to regional ecological security and food security, especially in arid and semi-arid environments. This paper reviewed the important achievements of the research on groundwater sustainability in arid and semi-arid environments during the past 30 years, and summarized the research progress in groundwater sustainability of arid and semi-arid environments from the conception evolution of groundwater sustainability, evaluation methods, influencing factors, sustainable management, and research frontiers. Our analysis suggests that groundwater in water limited environments around the world has shown unsustainable characteristics both in terms of quantity and quality. However, the existing research focuses more on the quantitative characteristics than the quality characteristics of groundwater, and thus the seriousness of the decline in groundwater sustainability is potentially underestimated. It is pointed out that more research efforts need to be done in the future in balancing the groundwater resources for human and nature, clarifying the impacts of human disturbance and climate change on groundwater sustainability, and strengthening groundwater sustainability through transboundary watershed management. We argued that the difficulty remains how to quantify the sustainable yield of a groundwater basin, and how to assess the groundwater sustainability. Further investigations are required in improving the theoretical framework of groundwater sustainability, modeling the impacts of the various alternative groundwater development scenarios, developing more flexible and efficient indicator frameworks for sustainability evaluation of groundwater system, and deploying more sophisticated groundwater monitoring network for real-time data acquisition. Finally, awareness should also be raised towards ground water sustainability both at the legal level and in the sphere of political action.     

中国农田土壤重金属污染防治现状与问题思考

土壤是农业可持续发展的基础。经过近40年的经济快速发展与农业高度集约化生产后,我国农田土壤污染与土壤环境质量下降问题逐渐凸显。当前,中国农田土壤重金属污染形势不容乐观,对农产品的安全生产和食品安全构成威胁。文章首先对我国农田土壤重金属污染现状与污染特点、农田重金属污染来源及修复技术研究现状等进行了总结。结果显示：(1)我国农田土壤重金属污染点位超标率相对较高,但以轻度污染为主;(2)污染土壤中主要以Cd、As、Hg、Pb和Cr这5种健康风险重金属元素为主,尤其以Cd风险最高,而以生态风险为主的Ni、Cu和Zn 3种重金属环境风险相对较小;(3)农田土壤污染分布总体表现为南方重于北方,东部重于西部;(4)农田土壤污染逐渐呈现由工业源向农业源、城郊向农村、土壤向食物链转移的发展趋势。基于文献计量方法对我国近30年来农田土壤污染防治研究的热点与趋势进行了分析。结果表明,我国农田土壤污染防治研究主要始于2000年前后,2009年后进入快速发展阶段,研究热点主要包括重金属污染监测、土壤环境环境质量评价、重金属污染土壤修复技术等,近10年来污染土壤修复技术表现为从单一修复技术向联合修复技术发展态势。此外,文章对我国农田重金属污染修复的一般程序、不同污染程度农田土壤的安全利用技术与高风险污染土壤的管控技术进行了评价,最后,对我国当前农田重金属污染防治过程中出现的问题进行了思考,同时针对我国今后农田重金属污染防治研究进行展望,提出了基于源头控制与风险管控措施相结合的农田重金属污染防治体系,以期为未来我国农田土壤重金属污染防治研究规划以及土壤重金属污染防治技术的创新提供参考与借鉴。     

Bulk modulus of Fe-rich olivines corrected for non-hydrostaticity

In situ X-ray diffraction was used to measure the isothermal bulk modulus at room conditions (K_T0) of synthetic olivines with different iron contents. The chemical formulae of the olivine samples were ${({\mathrm{Fe}}_x,{\mathrm{Mg}}_{1?x})}_2\mathrm{Si}{\mathrm{O}}_4$ with x = 0.45; 0.64; 0.82; 1, with 1% standard deviation (referenced as Fa45, Fa64, Fa82 and Fa100, respectively). All experiments were performed in the multi-anvil apparatus installed at NSLS beamline X17B2, to pressures up to about 7 GPa. Unit-cell volumes under hydrostatic conditions and differential stresses present in the samples were calculated using the method developed by Singh et al. (1998), and pressures measured using NaCl as a standard were then corrected for these stresses. Using a second-order Birch–Murnaghan equation of state, we obtained the isothermal bulk modulus of each composition: $K_{T0}^{\mathrm{Fa45}}=131.4\pm 2.6$ GPa, $K_{T0}^{\mathrm{Fa64}}=132.1\pm 3.1$ GPa, $K_{T0}^{\mathrm{Fa82}}=136.3\pm 1.7$ GPa and $K_{T0}^{\mathrm{Fa100}}=134.8\pm 1.4$ GPa. These values combined with data available in the literature show that the K_T0 of Fe-rich olivines increases very slowly with the Fe content, but possibly not in a simple linear trend.     

Performance-based analysis and design for internal stability of MSE walls

ABSTRACT

Mechanically stabilized earth (MSE) walls must be designed with adequate margins of safety against internal stability failure described by tensile strength and pullout limit states. Probabilities of failure (or reliability index) will vary strongly with the accuracy of the underlying models that appear in limit state performance functions. In this paper, prior work by the authors and co-workers on this topic is reviewed. Relative performance is explored in the context of the reliability (or probability of failure) of steel and polymeric reinforcing elements in MSE walls using limit state performance functions with load and resistance models having different accuracy.     

基于双能量X射线透射技术的物质分类识别方法研究

X射线装置已被证实具有揭示物质的分子或原子特性的能力,这种特性对于探测违禁品是相当重要的.尽管X射线探测方法作为一种自动探测违禁品的有效手段已经开始商业化,然而大多数技术都还不是很成熟.研究了一种基于X射线透射技术的物质分类识别的更有效方法,物质按有效原子序数分成有机物、无机物和混合物,实验证明此方法是很有效的.